IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$236 million at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550 per share.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:130521" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$236 million at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550 per share.
We previously discussed the IPO in Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550. We would participate in the IPO.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> - this is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?</li>
</ul>


Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. 

Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for CSR Ltd (CSR AU) - this is done.

Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toei-animation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18641:1" rel="noopener">Toei Animation (4816 JP)</a>'s prices its US$550 million secondary offering and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Toei Animation (4816 JP)'s prices its US$550 million secondary offering and Trial Holdings (5882 JP) IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP), Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Samsonite (1910 HK), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), APM Human Services Internation (APM AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (03 Mar) - Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, Samsonite, Adbri, Alumina, APM

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Aeon will almost definitely increase its stake in Tsuruha Holdings, which on its own will catalyse drugstore competitors to consider their mergeable options.</li>
<li>Tsuruha MAY merge with Welcia under Aeon and just talk of this will catalyse drugstore competitors even more.</li>
<li>But the ongoing fusion of drugstore retailing and FMCG formats like supermarkets and convenience stores, will also spur the entire FMCG sector to respond to Aeon's massive potential dominance.</li>
</ul>


Aeon will almost definitely increase its stake in Tsuruha Holdings, which on its own will catalyse drugstore competitors to consider their mergeable options.
Tsuruha MAY merge with Welcia under Aeon and just talk of this will catalyse drugstore competitors even more.
But the ongoing fusion of drugstore retailing and FMCG formats like supermarkets and convenience stores, will also spur the entire FMCG sector to respond to Aeon's massive potential dominance.


Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> have announced an alliance to establish the largest drugstore alliance in Japan by December 2027.</li>
<li>Aeon will carry out several Tsuruha transactions – buy Oasis 13.58% stake at JPY15,500 per share and, on receiving regulatory approval, reach 27.17% of the voting rights.  </li>
<li>The agreements involve merging Tsuruha and Welcia through a share exchange offer and Aeon subsequently increasing its Tsuruha voting rights from 27.17% to less than 51%. </li>
</ul>



Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have announced an alliance to establish the largest drugstore alliance in Japan by December 2027.
Aeon will carry out several Tsuruha transactions – buy Oasis 13.58% stake at JPY15,500 per share and, on receiving regulatory approval, reach 27.17% of the voting rights.  
The agreements involve merging Tsuruha and Welcia through a share exchange offer and Aeon subsequently increasing its Tsuruha voting rights from 27.17% to less than 51%. 


Aeon (8267 JP), Tsuruha (3391 JP) And Welcia (3141 JP)’s Long-Dated Plan

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts

Trial has upsized its IPO from US$236m to US$260m by launching its IPO at JPY1,600-1,700 per share vs. the reference price of JPY1,550. The offer...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (03 Mar) - Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, Samsonite, Adbri, Alumina, APM

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, ESR, Samsonite, Weiqiao Textile, Adbri, Alumina, CSR)...

Arun George

Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...

Michael Causton

Aeon (8267 JP), Tsuruha (3391 JP) And Welcia (3141 JP)’s Long-Dated Plan

We prefer to play these transactions through Tsuruha due to a valuation benchmark (Aeon’s acquisition from Oasis at JPY15,500) and undemanding...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts

Trial has upsized its IPO from US$236m to US$260m by launching its IPO at JPY1,600-1,700 per share vs. the reference price of JPY1,550. The offer...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (03 Mar) - Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, Samsonite, Adbri, Alumina, APM

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, ESR, Samsonite, Weiqiao Textile, Adbri, Alumina, CSR)...

Arun George

Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

​Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...

Michael Causton

Aeon (8267 JP), Tsuruha (3391 JP) And Welcia (3141 JP)’s Long-Dated Plan

We prefer to play these transactions through Tsuruha due to a valuation benchmark (Aeon’s acquisition from Oasis at JPY15,500) and undemanding...

Arun George

Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...