IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 13 September, the Ministry of Finance of Japan added 7&amp;I to <a href="https://www.mof.go.jp/policy/international_policy/gaitame_kawase/press_release/20240913.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a list of "core" designated companies</a> based on results of voluntary inquiries to all listed companies.</li>
<li>Several media reports suggest that the change in 7&amp;I’s designation to core would complicate the proposed acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a>. The core designation will not change Couche-Tard's strategy.</li>
<li>The change to 7&amp;I’s designation to core will paradoxically push Couche-Tard to firm up its revised offer. An undemanding valuation protects the downside of a no-deal situation.</li>
</ul>


On 13 September, the Ministry of Finance of Japan added 7&amp;I to a list of "core" designated companies based on results of voluntary inquiries to all listed companies.
Several media reports suggest that the change in 7&amp;I’s designation to core would complicate the proposed acquisition by Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN). The core designation will not change Couche-Tard's strategy.
The change to 7&amp;I’s designation to core will paradoxically push Couche-Tard to firm up its revised offer. An undemanding valuation protects the downside of a no-deal situation.


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Couche-Tard’s Calculus

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. </li>
<li>Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.</li>
<li>The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.</li>
</ul>


Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. 
Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.
The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.


Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

<ul>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>'s rejection, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)</a> remains prepared to enter collaborative and friendly discussions to focus on finding greater value for 7&amp;i shareholders. </li>
<li>Couche-Tard’s options are to return with a revised offer, go hostile or walk away. Couche-Tard will likely test the Board’s resolve by returning with a higher offer.</li>
<li>The Board’s options are to go through the motions (appointing IFAs), conduct a market check or launch a more aggressive action plan to placate restive shareholders. </li>
</ul>


Despite Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)'s rejection, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) remains prepared to enter collaborative and friendly discussions to focus on finding greater value for 7&amp;i shareholders. 
Couche-Tard’s options are to return with a revised offer, go hostile or walk away. Couche-Tard will likely test the Board’s resolve by returning with a higher offer.
The Board’s options are to go through the motions (appointing IFAs), conduct a market check or launch a more aggressive action plan to placate restive shareholders. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): State of Play

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

<ul>
<li>The Couche-Tard "friendly bid" raises more questions than it answers: Is it real? What does CT really want? Can it afford it? Will the Japanese government let it through?</li>
<li>We remain sceptical about a bid – if it happens – succeeding. Either way, Seven &amp; Eleven Japan looks to be the much better retailer.</li>
<li>It has been selling 25-40% more than competitors in the world's toughest CVS market and looks set to extract more value in Japan/overseas than anyone else could so why sell?</li>
</ul>


The Couche-Tard "friendly bid" raises more questions than it answers: Is it real? What does CT really want? Can it afford it? Will the Japanese government let it through?
We remain sceptical about a bid – if it happens – succeeding. Either way, Seven &amp; Eleven Japan looks to be the much better retailer.
It has been selling 25-40% more than competitors in the world's toughest CVS market and looks set to extract more value in Japan/overseas than anyone else could so why sell?


For Long-Term Investors, Seven & I Is the Better Bet

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Couche-Tard’s Calculus

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Vermilion Research

For Long-Term Investors, Seven & I Is the Better Bet

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Couche-Tard’s Calculus

The change to 7&I’s designation to core will paradoxically push Couche-Tard to firm up its revised offer. An undemanding valuation protects the...

Arun George

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): State of Play

Couche-Tard will likely return with a revised offer, which the Board will find a reason to reject. A binding proposal remains unlikely. The...

Arun George

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

For Long-Term Investors, Seven & I Is the Better Bet

​Couche-Tard's bid for Seven & Eleven Japan raises doubts, with skepticism about its success. Seven & Eleven Japan looks to be the superior...

Michael Causton

Couche-Tard's bid for Seven & Eleven Japan raises doubts, with skepticism about its success. Seven & Eleven Japan looks to be the superior...