Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amazon Netsuper is competing head to head with Rakuten’s online food platform in an online food sector that has grown 80% in four years. </li>
<li>Last month Amazon confirmed that Arcs, one of the largest supermarkets in Japan and the biggest in northern Japan, will join Life, Valor and Seijo Ishii in using its system.</li>
<li>Arcs’ online supermarket was already growing strongly but the tie-up with Amazon will take it to the next level, helping to compete with Aeon and Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


Amazon Netsuper is competing head to head with Rakuten’s online food platform in an online food sector that has grown 80% in four years. 
Last month Amazon confirmed that Arcs, one of the largest supermarkets in Japan and the biggest in northern Japan, will join Life, Valor and Seijo Ishii in using its system.
Arcs’ online supermarket was already growing strongly but the tie-up with Amazon will take it to the next level, helping to compete with Aeon and Rakuten.


Arcs' Online Expansion with Amazon a Worry for Rakuten and Aeon

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona Group (2168 JP)</a> is massively net cash. And it's ofloading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>. Though we don't know what the future holds, Pasona is the wrong price.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> controlling shreholder announced it intends to increase it stake. And it's been in the market almost everry day since the interims. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK)</a> announced its rights offering. It's at a long-term low price, and about to earn a long-term high net income, and have a long-term high payout ratio</li>
</ul>



Pasona Group (2168 JP) is massively net cash. And it's ofloading Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). Though we don't know what the future holds, Pasona is the wrong price.

ENN Energy (2688 HK) controlling shreholder announced it intends to increase it stake. And it's been in the market almost everry day since the interims. 

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) announced its rights offering. It's at a long-term low price, and about to earn a long-term high net income, and have a long-term high payout ratio


Last Week in Event SPACE: Zhejiang, Pasona, ENN Energy, Asahi Group, Azure Minerals

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">DCM Holdings (3050 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> signed capital and business tie-up agreements 30+yrs ago. Recently, DCM bought Keiyo.</li>
<li>Aeon got some money from this and has decided to put that money back into DCM shares.</li>
<li>That changes both the current dynamics and future shareholder structure. And that leads to interesting questions about the outcome.</li>
</ul>



DCM Holdings (3050 JP) and Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) signed capital and business tie-up agreements 30+yrs ago. Recently, DCM bought Keiyo.
Aeon got some money from this and has decided to put that money back into DCM shares.
That changes both the current dynamics and future shareholder structure. And that leads to interesting questions about the outcome.


Aeon/DCM/Keiyo Deal Changes on DCM TOB for Keiyo - Watch for Market Impact

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

Haitong International Securities Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Arcs' Online Expansion with Amazon a Worry for Rakuten and Aeon

Amazon Netsuper is challenging Rakuten's online food platform in a rapidly growing sector (up 80% in 4 years), with Arcs joining its system to...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Zhejiang, Pasona, ENN Energy, Asahi Group, Azure Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Aeon/DCM/Keiyo Deal Changes on DCM TOB for Keiyo - Watch for Market Impact

Aeon sold capital/business alliance partner Keiyo shares to capital/business alliance partner DCM. It will now use the cash to buy more DCM. It's a...

Travis Lundy

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Arcs' Online Expansion with Amazon a Worry for Rakuten and Aeon

​Amazon Netsuper is challenging Rakuten's online food platform in a rapidly growing sector (up 80% in 4 years), with Arcs joining its system to...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Zhejiang, Pasona, ENN Energy, Asahi Group, Azure Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Aeon/DCM/Keiyo Deal Changes on DCM TOB for Keiyo - Watch for Market Impact

Aeon sold capital/business alliance partner Keiyo shares to capital/business alliance partner DCM. It will now use the cash to buy more DCM. It's a...

Travis Lundy

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Amazon Netsuper is challenging Rakuten's online food platform in a rapidly growing sector (up 80% in 4 years), with Arcs joining its system to...

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...