China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);</li>
<li>The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;</li>
<li>The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in <strong>disfavor</strong> of China. </li>
</ul>


In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);
The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;
The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in disfavor of China. 


China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Shanghai Friendess Electronic / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs taking the total inflows since 18 July to over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and prevent a bigger fall.</li>
<li>The inflows continue to be largest on ETFs tracking headline indices - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, CSI1000, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a>. Plus there are inflows on some sectoral and thematic ETFs.</li>
<li>The skew between stocks gaining 20%+ over the period vs those dropping -20% or more has improved significantly over the last week.</li>
</ul>


Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs taking the total inflows since 18 July to over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and prevent a bigger fall.
The inflows continue to be largest on ETFs tracking headline indices - CSI 300, STAR50, CSI1000, CSI 500, SSE50, ChiNext. Plus there are inflows on some sectoral and thematic ETFs.
The skew between stocks gaining 20%+ over the period vs those dropping -20% or more has improved significantly over the last week.


China ETFs: Inflows Continue to Support the Market

<ul>
<li>Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs since 18 July and could be driven by the National Team supporting the market.</li>
<li>Most of the inflows have been focused on large cap indices including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a> and other sectoral and thematic ETFs.</li>
<li>The largest impact has been on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> constituents, but that has not stopped the slide in the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs since 18 July and could be driven by the National Team supporting the market.
Most of the inflows have been focused on large cap indices including CSI 300, STAR50, CSI 500, SSE50, ChiNext and other sectoral and thematic ETFs.
The largest impact has been on the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) constituents, but that has not stopped the slide in the stocks.


China: Huge ETF Inflows & Impact on Stocks

Espressif Systems Shanghai  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CSI announced the changes for the December rebalance after market close on 29 November and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.</li>
<li>There are 3 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.3-0.65x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the deletes.</li>
<li>On average, the adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 weeks with the adds moving higher and the deletes trending lows.</li>
</ul>


CSI announced the changes for the December rebalance after market close on 29 November and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 13 December.
There are 3 changes for the index and we estimate passive buying of 0.3-0.65x ADV in the adds and selling of between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the deletes.
On average, the adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 weeks with the adds moving higher and the deletes trending lows.


STAR Chip Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; US$413m Round-Trip Trade

<ul>
<li>The December review will use closing prices from 18 November to determine the list of stocks that will be included into and excluded from the ETFs.</li>
<li>As of the close on 15 November, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naura-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2333:1" rel="noopener">NAURA Technology Group (002371 CH)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaneng-lancang-river-hydropow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26585:1" rel="noopener">Huaneng Lancang River Hydropow (600025 CH)</a> in the ETFs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naura-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2333:1" rel="noopener">NAURA Technology</a> has doubled in price this year, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaneng-lancang-river-hydropow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26585:1" rel="noopener">Huaneng Lancang</a> has corrected from its highs and could be deleted from the ETF in just one quarter.</li>
</ul>


The December review will use closing prices from 18 November to determine the list of stocks that will be included into and excluded from the ETFs.
As of the close on 15 November, we see NAURA Technology Group (002371 CH) replacing Huaneng Lancang River Hydropow (600025 CH) in the ETFs.

NAURA Technology has doubled in price this year, while Huaneng Lancang has corrected from its highs and could be deleted from the ETF in just one quarter.


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: One Change to Close Out the Year

China

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China manufactures micro-fabrication equipment. The Company researches, develops, produces, and sells semiconductor equipment. Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China provides its products for semiconductor and adjacent high technology industries.

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equ (688012 CH)

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Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equ (688012 CH)

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Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ETFs: Inflows Continue to Support the Market

Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs with the total inflows since 18 July over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and...

Brian Freitas

China: Huge ETF Inflows & Impact on Stocks

Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China ETFs and could be driven by National Team supporting the market. There are many stocks where the ETFs...

Brian Freitas

STAR Chip Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; US$413m Round-Trip Trade

There are 3 changes for the index. Estimated 1-way turnover is 4.8% leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 3bn (US$413m). The adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: One Change to Close Out the Year

NAURA Tech could replace Huaneng Lancang Hydro in the ETFs in Dec. Huaneng Lancang was added to the ETFs in Sep, so could be short stay for the...

Brian Freitas

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