Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While March semiconductor revenues reached record levels, a price downturn appears to have begun.  This downturn seems likely to have a short duration before the market resumes its good growth for the rest of the year.

While March semiconductor revenues reached record levels, a price downturn appears to have begun.  This downturn seems likely to have a short duration before the market resumes its good growth for the rest of the year.

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> reported solid 2020 results but last week's earnings call provided a mixed outlook. On the one hand, there is great demand for GPU's and this is likely to continue into 2H21. On the other hand, the companies' two main suppliers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> can not deliver GPUs fast enough. On the positive side, this is leading to increased ASP (+15%) but on the negative side, volumes are dropping (-20/-30%) while costs (labor, logistics, memory) are rising.Clearly, this is an industry-wide issue and not Pc Partner specific but it does mean that 1H21 will still be stronger than 1H20 but weaker vs 2H20. Fortunately, Pc Partner remains cheap and it will pay a 0.22 HKD dividend (6.4% dividend yield) by mid-July. Investors can also look forward to an interim dividend in August. The downside in the stock is limited but the upside is capped until supply issues at Nvidia and AMD are resolved. We lower our Fair Value estimate to 4 HKD (based on 6x 0.67 HKD FY21 EPS vs 0.75 HKD prior estimate), which leaves another 17% upside. Since IPO the company has traded on a multiple of 4x (low end)-6x (high-end).

PC Partner (1263 HK) reported solid 2020 results but last week's earnings call provided a mixed outlook. On the one hand, there is great demand for GPU's and this is likely to continue into 2H21. On the other hand, the companies' two main suppliers Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) can not deliver GPUs fast enough. On the positive side, this is leading to increased ASP (+15%) but on the negative side, volumes are dropping (-20/-30%) while costs (labor, logistics, memory) are rising.Clearly, this is an industry-wide issue and not Pc Partner specific but it does mean that 1H21 will still be stronger than 1H20 but weaker vs 2H20. Fortunately, Pc Partner remains cheap and it will pay a 0.22 HKD dividend (6.4% dividend yield) by mid-July. Investors can also look forward to an interim dividend in August. The downside in the stock is limited but the upside is capped until supply issues at Nvidia and AMD are resolved. We lower our Fair Value estimate to 4 HKD (based on 6x 0.67 HKD FY21 EPS vs 0.75 HKD prior estimate), which leaves another 17% upside. Since IPO the company has traded on a multiple of 4x (low end)-6x (high-end). 

PC Partner: Great Demand, but Limited Supply of GPU's Created Mixed 2021 Outlook

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel's</a> newly appointed CEO Pat Gelsinger this week unveiled his plans to address the issues that have plagued the company for the better part of a decade. Dubbed "IDM 2.0", the plan comprises three key elements. Firstly, a reaffirmation of Intel's commitment to their existing, internal manufacturing operations. Secondly, an increased reliance on leading edge, external foundry capacity. Thirdly, the decision to re-enter the foundry business and become a leading supplier of U.S. and Europe-based capacity. Underpinning these three initiatives is a commitment to invest $20 billion in the construction of two new fabs in Phoenix, Arizona. Is Gelsinger's IDM 2.0 initiative a bold move or a desperate gamble? Here's what we think.

Intel's newly appointed CEO Pat Gelsinger this week unveiled his plans to address the issues that have plagued the company for the better part of a decade. Dubbed "IDM 2.0", the plan comprises three key elements. Firstly, a reaffirmation of Intel's commitment to their existing, internal manufacturing operations. Secondly, an increased reliance on leading edge, external foundry capacity. Thirdly, the decision to re-enter the foundry business and become a leading supplier of U.S. and Europe-based capacity. Underpinning these three initiatives is a commitment to invest $20 billion in the construction of two new fabs in Phoenix, Arizona. Is Gelsinger's IDM 2.0 initiative a bold move or a desperate gamble? Here's what we think. 

Intel IDM 2.0: Bold Move Or Desperate Gamble?

Intel's new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, today revealed a plan whereby Intel hopes to regain process leadership by building new fabs and becoming an important semiconductor foundry.  There are questions about this plan's likelihood of success.

Intel's new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, today revealed a plan whereby Intel hopes to regain process leadership by building new fabs and becoming an important semiconductor foundry.  There are questions about this plan's likelihood of success.

Intel Reveals Plan to Restore Process Leadership

In an investor confernce call today <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology (MU US)</a> revealed that it would discontinue its 3D XPoint memory efforts and sell the facility that produces it.  Will its sole customer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> be undermined by this move?

In an investor confernce call today Micron Technology (MU US) revealed that it would discontinue its 3D XPoint memory efforts and sell the facility that produces it.  Will its sole customer Intel Corp (INTC US) be undermined by this move?

Micron Kills 3D XPoint - Is Intel in Trouble?

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

March Semiconductor Sales Up Yet Again

The SIA reported very positive semiconductor revenues for the first quarter, but leading indicators show that a correction has begun. This Insight...

Jim Handy

PC Partner: Great Demand, but Limited Supply of GPU's Created Mixed 2021 Outlook

Pc Partner reported solid FY20 results. During last week's earnings call the company explained industry dynamics are mixed and result in us...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Intel IDM 2.0: Bold Move Or Desperate Gamble?

Intel's new CEO Pat Gelsinger this week laid out his plans for the future of the company. Dubbed IDM 2.0, is the plan a bold move or a desperate...

William Keating

Intel Reveals Plan to Restore Process Leadership

Can Intel restore the process leadership that it has lost to TSMC and Samsung? The company certainly hopes so. This Insight explores Intel's plan...

Jim Handy

Micron Kills 3D XPoint - Is Intel in Trouble?

Will Micron's sudden exit from the 3D XPoint market threaten Intel or Intel's customers? It seems that this will actually be a relatively...

Jim Handy

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