Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Unlike many suggest, the downgrade of the US credit rating by Fitch, resulting in the US losing its Triple-A status, will have significant impact on markets.</li>
<li>The disappointing ISM Manufacturing Index comes with massive downside for Equities in all regions.</li>
<li>While the Big Tech earnings dream get to live another day, the risks of a further and more significant slowdown in company earnings remain abundant.</li>
</ul>


Unlike many suggest, the downgrade of the US credit rating by Fitch, resulting in the US losing its Triple-A status, will have significant impact on markets.
The disappointing ISM Manufacturing Index comes with massive downside for Equities in all regions.
While the Big Tech earnings dream get to live another day, the risks of a further and more significant slowdown in company earnings remain abundant.


The Weekly Market Monitor (31) – Bye, Bye, Triple-A

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q2’23 revenues of $12.9 billion, down 15% YoY but up ~10% QoQ and handily beating the guided midpoint of $12 billion.</li>
<li>Q3 outlook for $13.4 billion at the midpoint, up 3.8% sequentially</li>
<li>Mr Gelsinger envisages a centrino-like era of AI-enabled PCs, starting with Meteor Lake in H2'23. Is this realistic?</li>
</ul>


Q2’23 revenues of $12.9 billion, down 15% YoY but up ~10% QoQ and handily beating the guided midpoint of $12 billion.
Q3 outlook for $13.4 billion at the midpoint, up 3.8% sequentially
Mr Gelsinger envisages a centrino-like era of AI-enabled PCs, starting with Meteor Lake in H2'23. Is this realistic?


Intel. PC Recovery Nigh As Incentives No Longer Required To Shift Client CPUs

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Wave of earnings this week -- AMD, Qualcomm, Apple internationally... and Delta, Advantech, Innolux, Winbond, Realtek, plus others in Taiwan.</li>
<li>We visited Micron’s A3 fab in Taiwan; SK Hynix gives strongest comments yet on Memory turn-around; Long Nanya Tech on DRAM turn-around.</li>
<li>Intel results readthrough: PC cycle improving and could be accelerated by AI-demand... We continue to see Elan Micro as a laggard play on rallying PC names.</li>
</ul>


Wave of earnings this week -- AMD, Qualcomm, Apple internationally... and Delta, Advantech, Innolux, Winbond, Realtek, plus others in Taiwan.
We visited Micron’s A3 fab in Taiwan; SK Hynix gives strongest comments yet on Memory turn-around; Long Nanya Tech on DRAM turn-around.
Intel results readthrough: PC cycle improving and could be accelerated by AI-demand... We continue to see Elan Micro as a laggard play on rallying PC names.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Taiwan Earnings Plus AMD & Apple; AI Accelerating DRAM & PC Recovery

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>'s pre-conditional tender offer from JIC is JPY4,350 per share. Since the deal announcement on 26 June, the gross spread has averaged 6.4%.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly in China. JIC, unusually can waive all or part of the conditions precedent.</li>
<li>The wild card is geopolitical developments. There are three China approval scenarios. The likely scenario is the deal approval under a normal procedure with a delay to the tender start.</li>
</ul>



JSR Corp (4185 JP)'s pre-conditional tender offer from JIC is JPY4,350 per share. Since the deal announcement on 26 June, the gross spread has averaged 6.4%.
The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly in China. JIC, unusually can waive all or part of the conditions precedent.
The wild card is geopolitical developments. There are three China approval scenarios. The likely scenario is the deal approval under a normal procedure with a delay to the tender start.


JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US</li>
<li>Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium</li>
<li>Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small</li>
</ul>


China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US
Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium
Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small


Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

The Weekly Market Monitor (31) – Bye, Bye, Triple-A

The US has lost the Triple A-rating, which, unlike many suggest, will have major implications. If not in the short run, then definitely in the long...

Jeroen Blokland

Intel. PC Recovery Nigh As Incentives No Longer Required To Shift Client CPUs

Q2’23 revenues $12.9 billion, -15% YoY but up ~+10% QoQ, handily beating guidance. No more incentives to shore up client market share. Is an AI...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Taiwan Earnings Plus AMD & Apple; AI Accelerating DRAM & PC Recovery

Wave of Taiwan earnings this week with Delta, Advantech, Innolux, Winbond, Realtek, Elan, ChipMOS plus others in Taiwan. Also -- We visited...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly in China. In this note, we...

Arun George

Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

Although China has threatened to boycott shipments of germanium and gallium to the US, the impact of such a move is likely to be very small. This...

Jim Handy

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