Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.</li>
<li>This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.</li>
</ul>


This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.
This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.
Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>I wrote about this in my recent post about HBM, and it seems almost everything I talked about became true. HBM is going to bail out the memory markets meaningfully.</li><li>Let’s talk about earnings, but I was hoping you could keep this post in mind while I discuss Micron.</li><li><p>These are the kinds of beats we start to see when the cycle turns. Now, the stocks have begun to anticipate this, but given the pricing dynamics of HBM, I feel very confident in Micron’s ability to hit a new cycle high in profitability.</p></li></ul>

I wrote about this in my recent post about HBM, and it seems almost everything I talked about became true. HBM is going to bail out the memory markets meaningfully.Let’s talk about earnings, but I was hoping you could keep this post in mind while I discuss Micron.These are the kinds of beats we start to see when the cycle turns. Now, the stocks have begun to anticipate this, but given the pricing dynamics of HBM, I feel very confident in Micron’s ability to hit a new cycle high in profitability.

Micron's Earnings and Broadcom's Accelerators

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Micron Technology reported very positive revenues this quarter and a return to profitability</li>
<li>A large part of this stems from the impact that HBM demand is constraining production of standard DDR5 DRAM, driving it into a shortage</li>
<li>This is good news for Micron and its DRAM competitors Samsung and SK hynix</li>
</ul>


Micron Technology reported very positive revenues this quarter and a return to profitability
A large part of this stems from the impact that HBM demand is constraining production of standard DDR5 DRAM, driving it into a shortage
This is good news for Micron and its DRAM competitors Samsung and SK hynix


Micron Earnings: HBM Driving Price Increases in Other Sectors

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>The EU has just launched the World's first AI Act</li>
<li>OpenAI claims the NYT tried to hack ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during  one of its training phases. </li>
<li>Google's licensing of Reddit's content in advance of the latter's impending IPO is a win-win for both, and likely how content creators can expect to be rewarded in the future</li>
</ul>


The EU has just launched the World's first AI Act
OpenAI claims the NYT tried to hack ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during  one of its training phases. 
Google's licensing of Reddit's content in advance of the latter's impending IPO is a win-win for both, and likely how content creators can expect to be rewarded in the future


Generative AI. Innovation Turns To Litigation, Licensing & Regulation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest buy while capping results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> being the largest sell by far.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest buy while capping results in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) being the largest sell by far.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly. This is one of the 16th-best quarters in...

Fabricated Knowledge

Micron's Earnings and Broadcom's Accelerators

It's all about AI. Micron is proving the memory thesis true, and Broadcom has a new accelerator customer. Also Nvidia's Moat.

Fabricated Knowledge

Micron Earnings: HBM Driving Price Increases in Other Sectors

Micron Technology sees positive revenues and profitability due to HBM demand creating a DDR5 DRAM shortage, benefiting Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix.

Jim Handy

Generative AI. Innovation Turns To Litigation, Licensing & Regulation

EU has launched the World's first AI Act. OpenAI claims the NYT hacked ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during its...

William Keating

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly. This is one of the 16th-best quarters in...

Fabricated Knowledge

Micron's Earnings and Broadcom's Accelerators

It's all about AI. Micron is proving the memory thesis true, and Broadcom has a new accelerator customer. Also Nvidia's Moat.

Fabricated Knowledge

Micron Earnings: HBM Driving Price Increases in Other Sectors

​Micron Technology sees positive revenues and profitability due to HBM demand creating a DDR5 DRAM shortage, benefiting Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix.

Jim Handy

Generative AI. Innovation Turns To Litigation, Licensing & Regulation

EU has launched the World's first AI Act. OpenAI claims the NYT hacked ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during its...

William Keating

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Micron Technology sees positive revenues and profitability due to HBM demand creating a DDR5 DRAM shortage, benefiting Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix.