Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The EU has just launched the World's first AI Act</li>
<li>OpenAI claims the NYT tried to hack ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during  one of its training phases. </li>
<li>Google's licensing of Reddit's content in advance of the latter's impending IPO is a win-win for both, and likely how content creators can expect to be rewarded in the future</li>
</ul>


The EU has just launched the World's first AI Act
OpenAI claims the NYT tried to hack ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during  one of its training phases. 
Google's licensing of Reddit's content in advance of the latter's impending IPO is a win-win for both, and likely how content creators can expect to be rewarded in the future


Generative AI. Innovation Turns To Litigation, Licensing & Regulation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest buy while capping results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> being the largest sell by far.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest buy while capping results in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) being the largest sell by far.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

<ul>
<li>It's the first MoM decline in semi sales since February 2023, but it's a seasonal thing &amp; YoY comparisons continue to grow stronger. </li>
<li>Forecasting 10% YoY growth in 2024 semiconductor sales, in line with TSMC's outlook</li>
<li>$1 trillion in annual semiconductor sales will likely happen in 2032 based on a 7.7% CAGR over the coming decade. </li>
</ul>


It's the first MoM decline in semi sales since February 2023, but it's a seasonal thing &amp; YoY comparisons continue to grow stronger. 
Forecasting 10% YoY growth in 2024 semiconductor sales, in line with TSMC's outlook
$1 trillion in annual semiconductor sales will likely happen in 2032 based on a 7.7% CAGR over the coming decade. 


Global Semi Sales Decline 2.3% MoM In January

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank</a> raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a>’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licenses high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Softbank raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
ARM develops and licenses high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry - A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>The AI GPU market has been exploding, and this has turned the DRAM market's downturn into a strong upturn</li>
<li>With this growth, DRAM manufacturers have seen their business turn around, thanks to increased use of HBM</li>
<li>Two questions concern us: Will AI growth last? Will increased competition in HBM DRAM create a price collapse?</li>
</ul>


The AI GPU market has been exploding, and this has turned the DRAM market's downturn into a strong upturn
With this growth, DRAM manufacturers have seen their business turn around, thanks to increased use of HBM
Two questions concern us: Will AI growth last? Will increased competition in HBM DRAM create a price collapse?


The Big Question: Can Today's AI Surge Last?

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Generative AI. Innovation Turns To Litigation, Licensing & Regulation

EU has launched the World's first AI Act. OpenAI claims the NYT hacked ChatGPT in order to prove they used their archive material during its...

William Keating

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Global Semi Sales Decline 2.3% MoM In January

The first MoM drop in semi sales since Feb 23, but it's a seasonal thing & YoY comps continue to improve.Forecasting 10% YoY growth in 2024 & $1...

William Keating

ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry - A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On

Softbank raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its...

Sumeet Singh

The Big Question: Can Today's AI Surge Last?

Today there's a surge in AI spending, and this has led to a recovery for DRAM makers. This Insight questions where this money is coming from, and...

Jim Handy

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