ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

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<p><em><strong>Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Correction: The Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bjbr-positive-fundamental-momentum-at-a-decent-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44897" rel="noopener">BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation</a> was improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. It was published by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a>.</strong></em></p>
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<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
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<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smartkarma-corporate-webinar-indo-banks-the-worst-is-over" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44882" rel="noopener">Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Indo Banks: The Worst Is Over</a></strong>-<strong> 10th November at 4 pm.</strong></p>
<p>For our next Corporate Webinar, we welcome <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>'s Group Head of Investor Relations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/yohan-setio" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yohan Setio</a>, who will share some company updates and sit down for a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a>.</p>
<h2>Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling</h2>
<p>This week below the fold we look at Indonesia's recent economic numbers which saw the country slide into recession, its first since the Asian Crisis but find it encouraging that the economy is moving onto a recovery track. We see selective banks and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> as core ways to play this recovery. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> is SoutEast Asia's largest Market Cap stock, and there are very few if any alternatives to get exposure to the region's e-commerce boom, certainly in the listed universe. One potential future candidate is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ),</a> which is the major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> but it also has stakes in Bukalapak and Dana, the number three digital payments player in Indonesia and a JV with Ant Financial.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> has announced that it will seek approval for a stock split in December but this may not be the end of the story. Any restructuring which brings all of its digital assets under one roof and improves liquidity would certainly help the company attract more institutional investors and secure a higher valuation. </p>
<h3>Macro Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-strategy-2021-part-2-top-10-stock-picks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40851" rel="noopener">Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 2): Top 10 Stock Picks,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> lays out his top stock picks in Thailand for next year.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-strategy-2021-part-3-sector-outlooks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40864" rel="noopener">Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 3): Sector Outlooks,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> provides us with his sector strategy in Thailand for the coming year. </p>
<h3>Equity Bottom Up</h3>
<p>In an Indonesian Insight,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/astra-international-asii-ij-an-auto-recovery-story-with-a-golden-digital-twist" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Astra International (ASII IJ) - An Auto-Recovery Story with a Golden Digital Twist</a>, CrossASEAN Insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> after a conversation with management. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-surya-citra-media-tbk-scma-ij-let-the-games-begin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44914" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits one of Indonesia's leading media companies, which has an increasingly digital twist.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aem-holdings-optimistic-on-fy21-fair-value-remains-at-5-sgd-41-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44915" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside),</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings (AEM SP)</a> after an impressive set of results and remains positive.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bjbr-positive-fundamental-momentum-at-a-decent-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44897" rel="noopener">BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> writes on this smaller Indonesian lender with a positive slant.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oversea-chinese-banking-corp-still-not-a-great-eastern" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44901" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp – Still Not A Great Eastern,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> looked in detail at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> numbers ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC SP)</a> results. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oversea-chinese-banking-corp-solid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45061" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Solid,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> revisits this Singapore lender with a positive view post its recent 3Q2020 numbers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener"></a>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dbs-group-holdings-not-trending-the-right-way-yet" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> DBS Group Holdings – Not Trending The Right Way Yet</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thomas J. Monaco</a> reports back<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)</a>'s post its recent 3Q2020 results with a chequered view.</p>
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<p>In this Thai Insight,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hmpro-expect-government-stimulus-scheme-drive-4q20-recover-qoq" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> HMPRO: Expect Government Stimulus Scheme Drive 4Q20 Recover QoQ,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> circle back to Thailand's leading home improvements player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/home-product-center-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9906:1" rel="noopener">Home Product Center (HMPRO TB)</a>. </p>
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<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/synex-solid-earnings-growth-outlook-but-largely-priced-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SYNEX: Solid Earnings Growth Outlook but Largely Priced In</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> provides a view on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synnex-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB),</a> following the recent run-up in the share price. </p>
<p>In this Thai Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scc-strong-3q20-thanks-to-petrochemical-spread" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCC: Strong 3Q20 Thanks to Petrochemical Spread</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> return to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a> post 3Q2020 results. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mc-prominent-denim-brand-with-new-growth-momentum" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45077" rel="noopener">MC: Prominent Denim Brand with New Growth Momentum,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a>initiate on this leading Thai denim apparel player. They initiate coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mc-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17093:1" rel="noopener">MC Group Pcl (MC TB)</a> with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt12.0, derived from 18.5x FY21E PER, which is +1SD above its 5-year trading average but slightly lower than its global apparel peers.</p>
<h3>Credit Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lippo-karawaci-earnings-flash-q3-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lippo Karawaci - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2020 Results</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> looks at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)'s</a> after its recent results, which continued to be robust in Q32020. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chandra-asri-earnings-flash-9m-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44814" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results</a> credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/leonard-law-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7106" rel="noopener">Leonard Law, CFA</a> circles back to this leading chemicals player post 3Q2020 results.</p>


Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: The Insight BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation was improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. It was published by Paul Hollingworth.



The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Indo Banks: The Worst Is Over- 10th November at 4 pm.
For our next Corporate Webinar, we welcome Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)'s Group Head of Investor Relations, Yohan Setio, who will share some company updates and sit down for a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh.
Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling
This week below the fold we look at Indonesia's recent economic numbers which saw the country slide into recession, its first since the Asian Crisis but find it encouraging that the economy is moving onto a recovery track. We see selective banks and Astra International (ASII IJ) as core ways to play this recovery. 
Sea Ltd (SE US) is SoutEast Asia's largest Market Cap stock, and there are very few if any alternatives to get exposure to the region's e-commerce boom, certainly in the listed universe. One potential future candidate is Emtek (EMTK IJ), which is the major shareholder of PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) but it also has stakes in Bukalapak and Dana, the number three digital payments player in Indonesia and a JV with Ant Financial.
Emtek (EMTK IJ) has announced that it will seek approval for a stock split in December but this may not be the end of the story. Any restructuring which brings all of its digital assets under one roof and improves liquidity would certainly help the company attract more institutional investors and secure a higher valuation. 
Macro Insights
In Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 2): Top 10 Stock Picks, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA lays out his top stock picks in Thailand for next year.
In Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 3): Sector Outlooks, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA provides us with his sector strategy in Thailand for the coming year. 
Equity Bottom Up
In an Indonesian Insight, Astra International (ASII IJ) - An Auto-Recovery Story with a Golden Digital Twist, CrossASEAN Insight provider Angus Mackintosh returns to look at Astra International (ASII IJ) after a conversation with management. 
In PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits one of Indonesia's leading media companies, which has an increasingly digital twist.
In AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside), CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits AEM Holdings (AEM SP) after an impressive set of results and remains positive.
In BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation,Thomas J. Monaco writes on this smaller Indonesian lender with a positive slant.
In Oversea Chinese Banking Corp – Still Not A Great Eastern,Thomas J. Monaco looked in detail at Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) numbers ahead of Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC SP) results. 
In Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Solid,Thomas J. Monaco revisits this Singapore lender with a positive view post its recent 3Q2020 numbers. 
In DBS Group Holdings – Not Trending The Right Way Yet, Thomas J. Monaco reports back DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)'s post its recent 3Q2020 results with a chequered view.



In this Thai Insight, HMPRO: Expect Government Stimulus Scheme Drive 4Q20 Recover QoQ, our friends at Country Group circle back to Thailand's leading home improvements player Home Product Center (HMPRO TB). 



In SYNEX: Solid Earnings Growth Outlook but Largely Priced In, Country Group provides a view on Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB), following the recent run-up in the share price. 
In this Thai Insight, SCC: Strong 3Q20 Thanks to Petrochemical Spread, our friends at Country Group return to look at Siam Cement (SCC TB) post 3Q2020 results. 
In MC: Prominent Denim Brand with New Growth Momentum, our friends at Country Groupinitiate on this leading Thai denim apparel player. They initiate coverage of MC Group Pcl (MC TB) with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt12.0, derived from 18.5x FY21E PER, which is +1SD above its 5-year trading average but slightly lower than its global apparel peers.
Credit Insights
In Lippo Karawaci - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2020 Results, credit specialist Trung Nguyen looks at Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)'s after its recent results, which continued to be robust in Q32020. 
In Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results credit specialist Leonard Law, CFA circles back to this leading chemicals player post 3Q2020 results.

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>For the upcoming year, we have selected 10 stocks for our country portfolio, and they can be broken down into three groups: </p><ul>
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<strong>Big cap picks. </strong>Big caps tend to outperform during times of strong QE flows. These include our top pick in large sectors except energy (BBL, AIS), the world's most valuable airport (AOT), and MINT (Thailand's only top 20 global hotel chain).</li>
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<strong>Recent listings. </strong>CRC was listed in 2020 and is considered an important recovery play. In particular, we are excited about two new listings in 2021 as well, namely NForce and Kerry (Thailand).</li>
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<strong>Small cap rebounds. </strong>Interestingly, a number of small cap stocks can also stand out and provide your portfolio with alpha. These include contractor SKY, massage operator SPA, and the country's incredibly fast-growing gaming company AS (AsiaSoft).</li>
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For the upcoming year, we have selected 10 stocks for our country portfolio, and they can be broken down into three groups: 

Big cap picks. Big caps tend to outperform during times of strong QE flows. These include our top pick in large sectors except energy (BBL, AIS), the world's most valuable airport (AOT), and MINT (Thailand's only top 20 global hotel chain).

Recent listings. CRC was listed in 2020 and is considered an important recovery play. In particular, we are excited about two new listings in 2021 as well, namely NForce and Kerry (Thailand).

Small cap rebounds. Interestingly, a number of small cap stocks can also stand out and provide your portfolio with alpha. These include contractor SKY, massage operator SPA, and the country's incredibly fast-growing gaming company AS (AsiaSoft).


Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 2): Top 10 Stock Picks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Lawrence Ho has all-but sidestepped family succession issues since his father passed away earlier this year - Stanley fathered 17 children with four women, and I count at last three ongoing legal actions by the siblings  - and appears intent on developing his own brand. With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> languishing around its NAV lows, will he simply continue to (gradually) increase his stake in Melco, or propose a major restructuring. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Toyota and Melco, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Lawrence Ho has all-but sidestepped family succession issues since his father passed away earlier this year - Stanley fathered 17 children with four women, and I count at last three ongoing legal actions by the siblings  - and appears intent on developing his own brand. With Melco International Development (200 HK) languishing around its NAV lows, will he simply continue to (gradually) increase his stake in Melco, or propose a major restructuring. 



Preceding my comments on Toyota and Melco, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.





These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.




StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) At NAV Trough Levels

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<p><strong>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma</strong><strong>is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</strong></p>
<p><strong>We add below a NEW section</strong>, <strong>which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </strong></p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/more-rune-reading-trade-balances-have-given-a-good-insight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43301" rel="noopener">More Rune Reading: Trade Balances Have Given a Good Insight,</a> Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-jim-walker" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1628" rel="noopener">Dr Jim Walker</a> looks at the relationship between trade balances and domestic demand across the region. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thailand-s-tourism-dilemma-buy-retailers-hospitals-and-select-hotels" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43526" rel="noopener">Thailand's Tourism Dilemma - Buy Retailers, Hospitals, and Select Hotels,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> examines the impact of the sharp downturn of tourism in Thailand and which sectors and companies will benefit most from an impending recovery.  </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/could-vietnamese-equities-be-set-for-take-off" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43793" rel="noopener">Could Vietnamese Equities Be Set For Take-Off?,</a> Strategist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-j-howell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2312" rel="noopener">Michael J. Howell</a> zeros in on the Vietnamese market, where he sees potential for a sharp recovery. </p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/comfort-delgro-cd-staycation-expo-and-no-more-rental-relief" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43391" rel="noopener">Comfort Delgro (CD): Staycation, Expo and No More Rental Relief,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> revisits Singapore's leading taxi operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a>, as he sees potential catalysts on the horizon. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wilmar-yka-s-pricing-cheap-rump-stake" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43702" rel="noopener">Wilmar: YKA's Pricing &amp; Cheap Rump Stake,</a> events specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> returns to look at the listing of its China Agribusiness unit under Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings' (YKA), which is seeing strong demand but he finds the real value in the stub value if Wilmar's other assets.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fct-placement-well-flagged-but-still-a-large-deal-to-digest" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43659" rel="noopener">FCT Placement - Well Flagged but Still a Large Deal to Digest,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4" rel="noopener">Sumeet Singh</a> revisits the deal dynamics of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)</a> planned placement.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870:1" rel="noopener"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-short-term-catalysts-are-not-attractive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43675" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/supun-walpola" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1650" rel="noopener">Supun Walpola</a> take an initial look at this upcoming Thai packaging IPO and finds it unattractive short-term. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-risks-rewards-attractive-at-the-higher-end-of-the-ipo-price-range" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43751" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO: Risks-Rewards Attractive at the Higher-End of the IPO Price Range,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/supun-walpola" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1650" rel="noopener">Supun Walpola</a> revisits this major Thai packaging IPO, with a more positive tone. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-banks-down-but-coming-back" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43744" rel="noopener">Thai Banks: Down But Coming Back,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> takes a look at Thai Banks in light of a gradual opening-up by the country to foreign tourists, albeit in a small way short term. </p><p> In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-media-spotlight-collapse-or-redemption" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42462" rel="noopener">Thai Media Spotlight: Collapse or Redemption?,</a> out Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> revisits the Thai Media sector in light of the COVID-19 recovery in the country.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-stalker-sisb-s-pandemic-is-sri-trang-gloves-profits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42035" rel="noopener">IPO Stalker: SISB's Pandemic Is Sri Trang Gloves' Profits</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> reports back having met with management from two recently IPO'd companies, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sisb-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27425:1" rel="noopener">SISB Public Company Limited (SISB TB)</a> (the country's only listed school) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB)</a>, the world's third-largest rubber glove producer and the hottest IPO on the SET in 2020. </p><div><div id="ember7971"><div id="ember7972"><p>In a Smartkarma Original,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-dividend-forecasting-the-rise-and-fall-of-dividends-across-asian-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43022" rel="noopener"> Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/ankit-agrawal-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4555" rel="noopener">Ankit Agrawal, CFA,</a> bring us a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividends. </p></div></div></div><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jababeka-trade-war-beneficiary-with-time-on-its-side" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43636" rel="noopener">Jababeka: Trade War Beneficiary with Time on Its Side,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/derek-silva" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:13468" rel="noopener">Derek Silva</a> provides a view from a credit perspective on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasan-industri-jababeka-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7755:1" rel="noopener">Kawasan Industri Jababeka (KIJA IJ)</a>. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gajah-tunggal-tear-sheet-lucror-analytics-2e687246-c77c-4d11-8a86-0d019a4b61c1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43788" rel="noopener">Gajah Tunggal - Tear Sheet</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/leonard-law-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7106" rel="noopener">Leonard Law, CFA</a> provides a top-down credit view on one of Indonesia's largest tyre manufacturers. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alam-sutera-event-flash-tender-offer-for-2021-and-2022-notes-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43760" rel="noopener">Alam Sutera - Event Flash - Tender Offer For 2021 And 2022 Notes</a>, credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7108" rel="noopener">Trung Nguyen</a> revisits this Indonesian property developer in light of a tender offer for its 2021 and 2022 Notes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alam-sutera-realty-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2312:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarmais filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
Macro InsightsIn More Rune Reading: Trade Balances Have Given a Good Insight, Economist Dr Jim Walker looks at the relationship between trade balances and domestic demand across the region. In Thailand's Tourism Dilemma - Buy Retailers, Hospitals, and Select Hotels, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh examines the impact of the sharp downturn of tourism in Thailand and which sectors and companies will benefit most from an impending recovery.  In Could Vietnamese Equities Be Set For Take-Off?, Strategist Michael J. Howell zeros in on the Vietnamese market, where he sees potential for a sharp recovery. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Comfort Delgro (CD): Staycation, Expo and No More Rental Relief, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko revisits Singapore's leading taxi operator Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP), as he sees potential catalysts on the horizon. In Wilmar: YKA's Pricing &amp; Cheap Rump Stake, events specialist David Blennerhassett returns to look at the listing of its China Agribusiness unit under Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings' (YKA), which is seeing strong demand but he finds the real value in the stub value if Wilmar's other assets.In FCT Placement - Well Flagged but Still a Large Deal to Digest,Sumeet Singh revisits the deal dynamics of the Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) planned placement.In SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive,Supun Walpola take an initial look at this upcoming Thai packaging IPO and finds it unattractive short-term. In SCG Packaging IPO: Risks-Rewards Attractive at the Higher-End of the IPO Price Range,Supun Walpola revisits this major Thai packaging IPO, with a more positive tone. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Thai Banks: Down But Coming Back,Brian Freitas takes a look at Thai Banks in light of a gradual opening-up by the country to foreign tourists, albeit in a small way short term.  In Thai Media Spotlight: Collapse or Redemption?, out Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA revisits the Thai Media sector in light of the COVID-19 recovery in the country.In IPO Stalker: SISB's Pandemic Is Sri Trang Gloves' Profits, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA reports back having met with management from two recently IPO'd companies, namely SISB Public Company Limited (SISB TB) (the country's only listed school) and Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB), the world's third-largest rubber glove producer and the hottest IPO on the SET in 2020. In a Smartkarma Original, Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies,Ankit Agrawal, CFA, bring us a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividends. Credit InsightsIn Jababeka: Trade War Beneficiary with Time on Its Side,Derek Silva provides a view from a credit perspective on Kawasan Industri Jababeka (KIJA IJ). In Gajah Tunggal - Tear Sheet, Leonard Law, CFA provides a top-down credit view on one of Indonesia's largest tyre manufacturers. In Alam Sutera - Event Flash - Tender Offer For 2021 And 2022 Notes, credit specialist Trung Nguyen revisits this Indonesian property developer in light of a tender offer for its 2021 and 2022 Notes. 

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Thailand'sToursim Dilemma, Thai Banks, and Wilmar's Stub

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Even as the rest of Thailand re-emerges to some level of normalcy after the worst phases of the lock-downs ended in June, the media sector struggles to recover. We see four important trends dominating the sector now: </p><ul>
<li>
<strong>A diminished sector thanks to streaming. </strong>Streaming players who offer no ads (led by AIS Play, Netflix, and True ID) have taken up much of audience mind share due to reduced pricing and incumbents spending less on content.</li>
<li>
<strong>Accelerated growth for online advertising.</strong> Facebook and Google unit YouTube now account for disproportionately large market share in online advertising (now almost a quarter of Thai ad spend). Even at the height of their power, TV-based advertisers like BEC and Channel 7 never dominated their medium to the same extent. This translates a huge amount of value to foreign players.</li>
<li>
<strong>MAJOR test following the extended movie pipeline delays. </strong>Blockbusters have been delayed more than six months, raising the question of whether movie-goers will return to cinemas. If they do not, this is the end of the road for the mighty cinema operator.</li>
<li>
<strong>Incumbents forced to find new roles. </strong>Thai broadcasters like BEC and Grammy will be relegated to second fiddle role of providing content to streaming outfits. Given its unique business model, MONO could remain last man standing, but not if consumer behaviors change entirely.</li>
</ul>

Even as the rest of Thailand re-emerges to some level of normalcy after the worst phases of the lock-downs ended in June, the media sector struggles to recover. We see four important trends dominating the sector now: 

A diminished sector thanks to streaming. Streaming players who offer no ads (led by AIS Play, Netflix, and True ID) have taken up much of audience mind share due to reduced pricing and incumbents spending less on content.

Accelerated growth for online advertising. Facebook and Google unit YouTube now account for disproportionately large market share in online advertising (now almost a quarter of Thai ad spend). Even at the height of their power, TV-based advertisers like BEC and Channel 7 never dominated their medium to the same extent. This translates a huge amount of value to foreign players.

MAJOR test following the extended movie pipeline delays. Blockbusters have been delayed more than six months, raising the question of whether movie-goers will return to cinemas. If they do not, this is the end of the road for the mighty cinema operator.

Incumbents forced to find new roles. Thai broadcasters like BEC and Grammy will be relegated to second fiddle role of providing content to streaming outfits. Given its unique business model, MONO could remain last man standing, but not if consumer behaviors change entirely.


Thai Media Spotlight: Collapse or Redemption?

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

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StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) At NAV Trough Levels

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The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Thailand'sToursim Dilemma, Thai Banks, and Wilmar's Stub

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Angus Mackintosh

Thai Media Spotlight: Collapse or Redemption?

Even as the rest of Thailand re-emerges to some level of normalcy after the worst phases of the lockdo

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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