Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

New milestones. In this month, the Thai market not only broke through the key resistance level of 1,600 but almost seems to be heading to the next level of 1,700. We have to admit that this has been the best month for our returns ever. 1,700 is historically important, because it was around that level that the Thai market peaked at an all time high in 1996 right before the crisis that wiped out the economy. After over a decade, the Thai stock market may be able to reach a new peak, even if it…

New milestones. In this month, the Thai market not only broke through the key resistance level of 1,600 but almost seems to be heading to the next level of 1,700. We have to admit that this has been the best month for our returns ever. 1,700 is historically important, because it was around that level that the Thai market peaked at an all time high in 1996 right before the crisis that wiped out the economy. After over a decade, the Thai stock market may be able to reach a new peak, even if it…

Thai Macro Watch (September): Hurricanes, the Great Escape, and End of Mourning

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

Total Access Communication / Equity Bottom-Up

We have not written much about Thailand recently. Our negative view on the stocks has not been working out as planned. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/potential-upside-from-license-fee-reduction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13424">Potential Upside from License Fee Reduction</a> some of the factors at work in Thailand and he has been more positive on the market. If we had to point to one positive factor that stands out to us it has been the rapidly rising video consumption (data). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1917" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1917">Chris Hoare</a> thinks we have been too cautious on the revenue outlook in Thailand…

We have not written much about Thailand recently. Our negative view on the stocks has not been working out as planned. Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA discussed in Potential Upside from License Fee Reduction some of the factors at work in Thailand and he has been more positive on the market. If we had to point to one positive factor that stands out to us it has been the rapidly rising video consumption (data). Chris Hoare thinks we have been too cautious on the revenue outlook in Thailand…

Thailand: Revenue Trends Have Improved but Telcos Need Spectrum. It Will Be Costly.

<blockquote>In early September, the regulator NBTC agreed to reduce license fees for large operators (revenue &gt; Bt5bn) from 1.3% to 1%. This basically covers all three major listed ones (AIS, DTAC, True). Smaller operators will get an even bigger reduction on a sliding scale, but those won't impact the stock market. The intended purpose of this regulatory change is to increase competition, but like all mandated top-down things in life, they tend to have unintended consequences as well.</blockquote><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stocks</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Business</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Shr pr</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

In early September, the regulator NBTC agreed to reduce license fees for large operators (revenue &gt; Bt5bn) from 1.3% to 1%. This basically covers all three major listed ones (AIS, DTAC, True). Smaller operators will get an even bigger reduction on a sliding scale, but those won't impact the stock market. The intended purpose of this regulatory change is to increase competition, but like all mandated top-down things in life, they tend to have unintended consequences as well.

Stocks
Business
Shr pr

…

Potential Upside from License Fee Reduction

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<h2>Philippines (overweight): a likely outperformer if tech and commodities correct</h2>Main ConclusionsThe Philippines appears to be the most expensive among the four ASEAN equity markets, but also boasts the highest rate of GDP growth. We remain overweight, mainly due to the sectoral composition, which is very light in terms of materials and energy plays where we expect pricing to come under further pressure and in terms of technology stocks which look distinctly frothy on a global basis. Market…

Philippines (overweight): a likely outperformer if tech and commodities correctMain ConclusionsThe Philippines appears to be the most expensive among the four ASEAN equity markets, but also boasts the highest rate of GDP growth. We remain overweight, mainly due to the sectoral composition, which is very light in terms of materials and energy plays where we expect pricing to come under further pressure and in terms of technology stocks which look distinctly frothy on a global basis. Market…

Emerging ASEAN: Sideshow to North Asia but More Limted Downside

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1">Singtel's (ST SP)</a> 1Q18 profit numbers showed operating revenues in line with NSR forecasts although the mix suggests a better performance in Australian consumer, helped in part by favorable currency movements, offsetting a slightly weaker than forecast performance in Enterprise.Summary YoY revenue and Ebitda trends for Singtel<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/031/982/original/Singtel%20YoY%20trends.jpg?1503288379" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="31982"></figure>Management left guidance unchanged for the core business, looking for low single digit revenue and Ebitda growth this year (NSR forecast is 2.6% and 2.8% growth…

Singtel's (ST SP) 1Q18 profit numbers showed operating revenues in line with NSR forecasts although the mix suggests a better performance in Australian consumer, helped in part by favorable currency movements, offsetting a slightly weaker than forecast performance in Enterprise.Summary YoY revenue and Ebitda trends for SingtelManagement left guidance unchanged for the core business, looking for low single digit revenue and Ebitda growth this year (NSR forecast is 2.6% and 2.8% growth…

Singtel's Results Broadly in Line With (Weak) Expectations Ahead of TPG's Entry

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC-R TB)

Thai Macro Watch (September): Hurricanes, the Great Escape, and End of Mourning

New milestones. In this month, the Thai market not only broke through the key resistance level of 1,600 but almost seems to be heading to the next...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thailand: Revenue Trends Have Improved but Telcos Need Spectrum. It Will Be Costly.

We have not written much about Thailand recently. Our negative view on the stocks has not been working out as planned. Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA...

New Street Research

Potential Upside from License Fee Reduction

In early September, the regulator NBTC agreed to reduce license fees for large operators (revenue > Bt5bn) from 1.3% to 1%. This basically...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Emerging ASEAN: Sideshow to North Asia but More Limted Downside

Philippines (overweight): a likely outperformer if tech and commodities correctMain ConclusionsThe Philippines appears to be the most expensive...

John-Paul Smith

Singtel's Results Broadly in Line With (Weak) Expectations Ahead of TPG's Entry

Singtel's (ST SP) 1Q18 profit numbers showed operating revenues in line with NSR forecasts although the mix suggests a better performance in...

New Street Research

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