PTTEP (PTTEP TB): Good Proxy to Rising Crude Oil Price

PTTEP (PTTEP TB): Share Price Highly Correlated to Crude Oil Price

Snippets #17: PTTEP's Winner Curse, Huawei's Crisis

Taiwan (Overweight): Strong Performance Running Out of Steam? (Part 5 of 6)

India (Overweight): Are Equites Losing Touch with Reality? (Part 4 of 6)

Korea (Underweight):  Business as Usual Between the Government and the Chaebol (Part 3 of 6)

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<h2>Philippines (overweight): a likely outperformer if tech and commodities correct</h2>Main ConclusionsThe Philippines appears to be the most expensive among the four ASEAN equity markets, but also boasts the highest rate of GDP growth. We remain overweight, mainly due to the sectoral composition, which is very light in terms of materials and energy plays where we expect pricing to come under further pressure and in terms of technology stocks which look distinctly frothy on a global basis. Market…

Philippines (overweight): a likely outperformer if tech and commodities correctMain ConclusionsThe Philippines appears to be the most expensive among the four ASEAN equity markets, but also boasts the highest rate of GDP growth. We remain overweight, mainly due to the sectoral composition, which is very light in terms of materials and energy plays where we expect pricing to come under further pressure and in terms of technology stocks which look distinctly frothy on a global basis. Market…

Emerging ASEAN: Sideshow to North Asia but More Limted Downside