TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<p>Roblox, one of the leading global game platforms, announced on Friday (8 January) that it plans to go public through a Direct Public Listing (DPL), instead of the traditional IPO. Ahead of this direct public listing, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/roblox-expects-direct-listing-on-nyse-in-february.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roblox</a> raised $520 million in private financing, valuing the company at $29.5 billion or $45 per share.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Our valuation analysis suggests a base case implied market cap of $50 billion and a target price of $76.20 per share for Roblox. This would represent 69% higher level than its most recent private capital raise of $520 million, valuing the company at $29.5 billion or $45 per share. The direct listing valuation range is from $40.5 billion to $60.5 billion, according to our valuation sensitivity analysis. </strong></p></div>

Roblox, one of the leading global game platforms, announced on Friday (8 January) that it plans to go public through a Direct Public Listing (DPL), instead of the traditional IPO. Ahead of this direct public listing, Roblox raised $520 million in private financing, valuing the company at $29.5 billion or $45 per share.Our valuation analysis suggests a base case implied market cap of $50 billion and a target price of $76.20 per share for Roblox. This would represent 69% higher level than its most recent private capital raise of $520 million, valuing the company at $29.5 billion or $45 per share. The direct listing valuation range is from $40.5 billion to $60.5 billion, according to our valuation sensitivity analysis. 

Qualtrics International / Equity Capital Markets

<p><strong>Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of implied market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of the initial IPO price range of $24 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of the Qualtrics IPO.  </strong></p>

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of implied market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of the initial IPO price range of $24 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of the Qualtrics IPO.  

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>The percentage of US active funds invested in Tesla has risen sharply over the course of the year.  A total of 18%, or 88 out of the 496 funds in our US analysis hold a position in Telsa.  Average fund weights across all funds is 0.42%, across Telsa holders is 2.34%.  </li>
<li>Total dollar holdings are at peak levels among the funds in our analysis, with combined AUM in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> of $37.6bn among the 88 holders.  </li>
<li>Current holders have tended to sell in to strength this year, with $4.4bn in outflows as managers keep Telsa from dominating portfolios if left unchecked.</li>
<li>At current levels, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> will join the ranks as one of the top underweight holdings among active US managers, currently led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> .  If no further buying occurs, Tesla will likely slot in to 4th place behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US</a> (assuming an inclusion weight of ~1.5%).</li>
<li>We expect buying pressure from benchmark aligned funds who are currently not invested in the stock.  Estimates of $5.8bn when analysing previous index inclusions <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)</a> .</li>
<li>Potential $37bn of selling from active US funds, though current holders are long-term holders and not guaranteed to sell in to the rebalance.  We see an imbalance of buying from passive funds who may need to push prices significantly higher to entice these long-term holders to sell.</li>
</ul><p><em>Analysis taken from our US research, covering 496 active US equity funds with a combined AUM of $3.4tr.</em></p>


The percentage of US active funds invested in Tesla has risen sharply over the course of the year.  A total of 18%, or 88 out of the 496 funds in our US analysis hold a position in Telsa.  Average fund weights across all funds is 0.42%, across Telsa holders is 2.34%.  
Total dollar holdings are at peak levels among the funds in our analysis, with combined AUM in Tesla Motors (TSLA US) of $37.6bn among the 88 holders.  
Current holders have tended to sell in to strength this year, with $4.4bn in outflows as managers keep Telsa from dominating portfolios if left unchecked.
At current levels, Tesla Motors (TSLA US) will join the ranks as one of the top underweight holdings among active US managers, currently led by Apple Inc (AAPL US) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) .  If no further buying occurs, Tesla will likely slot in to 4th place behind Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US (assuming an inclusion weight of ~1.5%).
We expect buying pressure from benchmark aligned funds who are currently not invested in the stock.  Estimates of $5.8bn when analysing previous index inclusions Facebook Inc A (FB US) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) .
Potential $37bn of selling from active US funds, though current holders are long-term holders and not guaranteed to sell in to the rebalance.  We see an imbalance of buying from passive funds who may need to push prices significantly higher to entice these long-term holders to sell.
Analysis taken from our US research, covering 496 active US equity funds with a combined AUM of $3.4tr.

Tesla Inclusion.  What Will Active US Funds Do?

<p>Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, and gave an impressive guidance given the sheer amount of spending the company is engaged in as it builds its logistics capabilities at breakneck speed. The stock, like its mega cap brethren has been weak for a variety of reasons (Covid/Election-linked volatility = sell all beats)..and is at the same price as prior to 2Q20 earnings. For a long term investor, $3000 is a good entry point, as we think the stock is eventually worth $6000…and ongoing Covid lockdowns will only increase demand for all its services.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, and gave an impressive guidance given the sheer amount of spending the company is engaged in as it builds its logistics capabilities at breakneck speed. The stock, like its mega cap brethren has been weak for a variety of reasons (Covid/Election-linked volatility = sell all beats)..and is at the same price as prior to 2Q20 earnings. For a long term investor, $3000 is a good entry point, as we think the stock is eventually worth $6000…and ongoing Covid lockdowns will only increase demand for all its services.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Adobe Systems Incorporated develops, markets, and supports computer software products and technologies.  The Company's products allow users to express and use information across all print and electronic media.  Adobe offers a line of application software products, type products, and content for creating, distributing, and managing information.

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Adobe Systems (ADBE US)

Amazon 4Q20: The GOAT Departs

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is stepping down. We doubt he steps away. 2021 is a unique setup. Its the first time Amazon was up during a big capacity...

Aaron Gabin

Roblox Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation for Roblox is $50 billion and a target price of $76.20 per share. This would represent 69% higher than its most recent...

Douglas Kim

Qualtrics Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of...

Douglas Kim

Tesla Inclusion. What Will Active US Funds Do?

What are the current levels of ownership in Tesla Motors? We analyse 496 US active funds with a combined AUM of $3.4tr to find out.

Steven Holden

Amazon 3Q20: Amazon $6,000

Amazon's continued success is nothing new, but the pause in the stock grants longer term investors another bite at the apple at $3000...we think...

Aaron Gabin

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