Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively</li>
<li>Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215


Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM.  In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering &amp; Construction, and Transportation Sectors.

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM.  In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering &amp; Construction, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.  

United Kingdom

Admiral Group Plc principally sells private motor insurance, together with additional products and services such as breakdown coverage. The Company markets directly to the public in the United Kingdom through its core brands; Admiral, Elephant, Diamond, and Bell. Admiral Group also offer motor insurance and operates comparison websites in Spain, Italy, France and the United States.

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Admiral (ADM LN)

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI...

Vermilion Research

The UK Economy - After Brexit

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on...

Pelham Smithers Associates

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