Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.</li>
<li>We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.</li>
</ul>


Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).
These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.
We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.


Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Adani Green Energy's ESG as "Strong", in line with its "Strong" Environmental score (the pillar carries the highest weightage for our assessment). The company has "Adequate" scores for the Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are "Immaterial" and Disclosure is "Strong".

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).  We assess Adani Green Energy's ESG as "Strong", in line with its "Strong" Environmental score (the pillar carries the highest weightage for our assessment). The company has "Adequate" scores for the Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are "Immaterial" and Disclosure is "Strong".  

Adani Green Energy - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.
<ul>
<li><a href="#lucror-entity-29012" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy</a></li>
</ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Adani Green Energy


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.The review period runs from February to July and we are nearing the last leg of data that will be used to determine the inclusions and exclusions. We currently see no change to the index, though that could change if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)</a> and/or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment, or if there is a big rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a>.20 stocks have been added to the F&amp;O segment so far this year and there is a possibility that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> and/or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)</a> are included in the segment in the next month.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a>'s average free float market cap is 1.41 times the average free float market cap of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. To reach the 1.5 times average free float market cap threshold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> will need to outperform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a> by 32% on average over the rest of the review period.If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)</a> are added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>, the impact of passive buying will be high at over 7 days of ADV. The impact on the potential deletions is around 3 days of ADV to sell.

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.The review period runs from February to July and we are nearing the last leg of data that will be used to determine the inclusions and exclusions. We currently see no change to the index, though that could change if Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) and/or Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment, or if there is a big rally in Info Edge India (INFOE IN).20 stocks have been added to the F&amp;O segment so far this year and there is a possibility that Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) and/or Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) are included in the segment in the next month.Info Edge India (INFOE IN)'s average free float market cap is 1.41 times the average free float market cap of Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). To reach the 1.5 times average free float market cap threshold, Info Edge India (INFOE IN) will need to outperform Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) by 32% on average over the rest of the review period.If Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) or Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) are added to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX), the impact of passive buying will be high at over 7 days of ADV. The impact on the potential deletions is around 3 days of ADV to sell.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Catalysts for Change

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> is the main index of the Philippines Stock Exchange (PSE). The index is free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 30 largest and most active common stocks listed at the PSE.Even though the passive assets tracking the index are very small, the strategy of buying the inclusions and selling the exclusions has performed very well at every rebalance over the last 5 years.For the August rebalance, we see a possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ac-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23188:1" rel="noopener">AC Energy Corp (ACEN PM)</a> being included in the index, which would see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmci-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8026:1" rel="noopener">DMCI Holdings (DMC PM)</a> being excluded.The SEC has approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ac-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23188:1" rel="noopener">AC Energy Corp (ACEN PM)</a>'s <a href="https://acenergy.ph/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/SEC-17C-Update-on-the-Company-Follow-on-Offering.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follow on offering</a> for the sale of 2.01bn shares at a price range of PHP 6-8.2/share, of which 1.58bn shares will be a primary offering and 330.248m shares will be a secondary offering by AC Energy &amp; Infrastructure Corp (ACEIC). The public offering will run from 3-7 May and the shares will be listed on 14 May.

The Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) is the main index of the Philippines Stock Exchange (PSE). The index is free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 30 largest and most active common stocks listed at the PSE.Even though the passive assets tracking the index are very small, the strategy of buying the inclusions and selling the exclusions has performed very well at every rebalance over the last 5 years.For the August rebalance, we see a possibility of AC Energy Corp (ACEN PM) being included in the index, which would see DMCI Holdings (DMC PM) being excluded.The SEC has approved AC Energy Corp (ACEN PM)'s follow on offering for the sale of 2.01bn shares at a price range of PHP 6-8.2/share, of which 1.58bn shares will be a primary offering and 330.248m shares will be a secondary offering by AC Energy &amp; Infrastructure Corp (ACEIC). The public offering will run from 3-7 May and the shares will be listed on 14 May.

PSEi Index Rebalance Preview: Follow-On Offering Could See ACEN Added, DMC Deleted

India

Adani Green Energy Limited operates as a producer of renewable energy. The Company builds, owns, and operates power plants for solar and wind energy. Adani Green Energy serves customers worldwide.


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Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)

Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

We are highlighting Energy again because it is easily our favorite Sector. Additionally, defensive Sectors including Staples and Utilities display...

Vermilion Research

Adani Green Energy - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Adani Green Energy's ESG...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Catalysts for Change

There are no changes expected to the NIFTY Index at the September rebalance. However, the inclusion of DMART and/or Adani Green in the F&O segment...

Brian Freitas

PSEi Index Rebalance Preview: Follow-On Offering Could See ACEN Added, DMC Deleted

AC Energy could be added to the PCOMP Index due to its upcoming follow-on offering. DMCI could be deleted. Inclusions have historically...

Brian Freitas

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