Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-29012'>Adani Green Energy</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Adani Green Energy

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Short-Term borrowing plays an important role in the Adani group</li>
<li>Rescinding of Adani Enterprises FPO and meltdown in share prices heightened liquidity concerns of the group</li>
<li>This analyst estimates the liquidity gap to be around US$ 8 bn for FY2023 which needs to be bridged by long-term funds and/or cash flow from operations</li>
</ul>


Short-Term borrowing plays an important role in the Adani group
Rescinding of Adani Enterprises FPO and meltdown in share prices heightened liquidity concerns of the group
This analyst estimates the liquidity gap to be around US$ 8 bn for FY2023 which needs to be bridged by long-term funds and/or cash flow from operations


Adani Group Has a Significant Liquidity Gap to Bridge

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Adani Green Energy's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its "Adequate" Social score. The company has a "Strong" score for the Environmental pillar, which carries the highest weightage in our assessment. It has "Weak" Governance in our view. Controversies are "Material", but Disclosure is "Strong".

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).  We assess Adani Green Energy's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its "Adequate" Social score. The company has a "Strong" score for the Environmental pillar, which carries the highest weightage in our assessment. It has "Weak" Governance in our view. Controversies are "Material", but Disclosure is "Strong".  

Adani Green Energy - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> FPO saw VERY muted demand (realtime available on NSE+BSE websites) on Day 1 Friday as the share price plummeted through the bottom of the range.</li>
<li>The Adani Group responded to Hindenburg late Sunday with a 400-page rebuttal, cloaked in nationalistic terms. Hindenburg responded saying the company failed to answer 62 of 88 questions.</li>
<li>This is not going away. They could lower the FPO price, or just pull the FPO. That won't materially change the significant over-valuation of many Adani Group listco share prices.</li>
</ul>


The Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) FPO saw VERY muted demand (realtime available on NSE+BSE websites) on Day 1 Friday as the share price plummeted through the bottom of the range.
The Adani Group responded to Hindenburg late Sunday with a 400-page rebuttal, cloaked in nationalistic terms. Hindenburg responded saying the company failed to answer 62 of 88 questions.
This is not going away. They could lower the FPO price, or just pull the FPO. That won't materially change the significant over-valuation of many Adani Group listco share prices.


Adani Ent FPO - Early Demand Muted, Adani & Hindenburg Trade Barbs Again, But Not a Good Look

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With only 5 trading days to go in the review period, we see no constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pidilite-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20573:1" rel="noopener">Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN)</a> is the highest ranked non-index constituent, but its free float market cap does not exceed 1.5x the free-float market cap of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a>. </li>
<li>We do not expect LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) to be added to the index in March post the merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larsen-toubro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2499:1" rel="noopener">Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7297:1" rel="noopener">Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


With only 5 trading days to go in the review period, we see no constituent changes to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) at the March rebalance.

Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) is the highest ranked non-index constituent, but its free float market cap does not exceed 1.5x the free-float market cap of Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN). 
We do not expect LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) to be added to the index in March post the merger between Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN) and Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN). 


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes Likely in March

India

Adani Power Ltd is a power project development company. The Company develops, operates and maintains power projects in India.

NTPC Ltd. owns and operates power generation plants that supply power to state electricity boards throughout India.  The Company is a public sector undertaking of the Government of India and it also undertakes turnkey consulting projects to set up power plants.

JSW Energy Limited generates power by using Corex gas and coal. The Company, through its subsidiary, also operates lignite thermal power plant in Rajasthan and has a capacity to produce 3,140 megawatts of electricity. JSW is also present in the power trading and transmission businesses.

NHPC Ltd is a hydro-power development company based in India. The Company has constructed approximately 11 hydro-power projects in India and abroad with a total installed capacity of 2554.35 MW.

Neyveli Lignite Corporation Limited generates and distributes power, mines and processes lignite, manufactures fertilizers & chemicals and processes and sells clay of all kinds. The Company's other activities include the briquetting and carbonization of lignite and its main products include electric power, lignite, nekolin, pulverized nekolin, urea, coke fines and leco.

Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd. generates electricity.  The Company operates a private sector hydroelectric power plant.

RattanIndia Infrastructure Limited, through a subsidiary, develops electricity generating plants.  The Company is building a coal-fired plant in Nandgaonpeth in the Amravati District of Maharashtra State, and a coal-fired plant in Sinnar in the Nasik District of Maharashtra State.

Reliance Power Limited develops, constructs, and operates power projects both domestically and internationally.

RattanIndia Power Limited develops, constructs and operates power projects domestically and internationally. The Company is participating in various Coal based Thermal,Hydro and Renewable Energy projects as well as is actively pursuing various coal mining opportunities.

PTC India Ltd buys and sells electricity.

RWE Aktiengesellschaft is a globally active energy company. The Company generates and trades electricity. RWE has a capacity of about 10 gigawatts based on renewable sources, as well as gas fleet and an internationally active energy trading business. RWE serves clients in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the United States.

China National Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. is a nuclear energy power producer. The Company invests in, constructs, manages and operates nuclear power plants throughout China.

China National Nuclear Power C (601985 CH)

Uniper SE operates as an international energy company. The Company owns and manages a portfolio of power plants located across Europe and Russia, as well as focuses on commodity trading business, such as power, emission certificates, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, coal, and freight. Uniper also operates power and gas storage facilities.

Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc. provides hydropower generation services. The Company offers electricity transmission, electricity distribution, power transformation, and other related services. Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower also provides clean energy development services.

Huaneng Lancang River Hydropow (600025 CH)

Vistra Corp. provides utility services. The Company generates energy. Vistra Corp serves customers worldwide.

Huaneng Power International, Inc. develops, constructs, owns and operates coal-fired power plants throughout China. It also builds gas-fired, hydroelectric and wind power generation in China and owns Tuas Power which controls power generation facilities in Singapore.

CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power generating stations. The Company sells all of the electricity from its stations, manages, oversees the construction of nuclear power stations, and provides technical research plus develops support services. CGN Power has stations in Guangdong, Fujian and Liaoning, and is a subsidiary of China General Nuclear Power Corporation.

SDIC Power Holdings Co Ltd . generates thermal electric and hydroelectric power. The electric power generated by the Company are supplied to Gansu area.

China Resources Power Holdings Company Limited is a power generation company. The Company invests, develops, owns, and operates coal-fired power plants in China.

Adani Green Energy Limited operates as a producer of renewable energy. The Company builds, owns, and operates power plants for solar and wind energy. Adani Green Energy serves customers worldwide.


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Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Adani Group Has a Significant Liquidity Gap to Bridge

Analysis of the 7 listed Adani companies in FY2022 reveals a significant liquidity gap for FY2023 which needs to be bridged through long-term funds

Hemindra Hazari

Adani Green Energy - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Adani Green Energy's ESG...

Lucror Analytics

Adani Ent FPO - Early Demand Muted, Adani & Hindenburg Trade Barbs Again, But Not a Good Look

ADANIENT issued a 400+ page response, starting with nationalistic ad hominem, and continuing with diversion. HR responded. FPO Demand weak. The...

Travis Lundy

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes Likely in March

We do not expect any changes in March since Pidilite's average FFMC does not exceed 1.5x the FFMC for BPCL. There will be an adhoc change prior to...

Brian Freitas

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