Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our initial thoughts on Microsoft’s bid for Activision Blizzard were on the sceptical side given various signs of trouble at the company. </li>
<li>In contrast the majority of commentary on the deal has been somewhere between positive and euphoric though there are monopoly concerns from customers. </li>
<li>Yet the more we examine the implications the less we like this deal for Microsoft.</li>
</ul>


Our initial thoughts on Microsoft’s bid for Activision Blizzard were on the sceptical side given various signs of trouble at the company. 
In contrast the majority of commentary on the deal has been somewhere between positive and euphoric though there are monopoly concerns from customers. 
Yet the more we examine the implications the less we like this deal for Microsoft.


Microsoft – Thinking Through the ATVI Acquisition Further

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>The gaming industry was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic which gave rise to a large community of gamers across the globe.</li><li>Today, we are looking to analyze 2 global gaming majors on the development side - Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard.</li><li>Both these companies have been an active part of the heavy consolidation taking place in the fast-growing industry and are bound to attract investor interest.</li></ul>

The gaming industry was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic which gave rise to a large community of gamers across the globe.Today, we are looking to analyze 2 global gaming majors on the development side - Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard.Both these companies have been an active part of the heavy consolidation taking place in the fast-growing industry and are bound to attract investor interest.

Electronic Arts (EA) vs. Activision Blizzard - Which Gaming Major Is The Better Performer? (11/2021)

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>In the past few weeks, Facebook changed its name to Meta, showing its emphasis on the concept as central to its future. Nvidia and AMD have been skyrocketing as investors speculate that in the future, all the large platforms will be putting huge money behind the concept. AMD just got a big win at Facebook to help power its Metaverse. Facebook is putting soooo much behind the metaverse…its almost a shame they couldn’t just buy Roblox.</p><p>This was a fine fine quarter for Roblox, the platform is aging up, growth accelerating internationally, platform extensions abound. But…consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively…not the type of revisions that merits a 30% move higher. 8% short interest doesn’t sound like much, but 4 days to cover on a relatively thin float seems to be the culprit. We would take profits on Roblox and look to re-engage in the $80s.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

In the past few weeks, Facebook changed its name to Meta, showing its emphasis on the concept as central to its future. Nvidia and AMD have been skyrocketing as investors speculate that in the future, all the large platforms will be putting huge money behind the concept. AMD just got a big win at Facebook to help power its Metaverse. Facebook is putting soooo much behind the metaverse…its almost a shame they couldn’t just buy Roblox.This was a fine fine quarter for Roblox, the platform is aging up, growth accelerating internationally, platform extensions abound. But…consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively…not the type of revisions that merits a 30% move higher. 8% short interest doesn’t sound like much, but 4 days to cover on a relatively thin float seems to be the culprit. We would take profits on Roblox and look to re-engage in the $80s.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

<p>Apple's quasi loss in the Epic lawsuit regarding app store take rates makes us all the more bullish on one of our favorite longs...Match Group. And also more bullish on Roblox (another long recommendation) and ATVI (less a beneficiary, but still a good entry point. We think Spotify and Netflix's benefits are overstated. Spotify has run too much on the news, and we think its potentially another good short entry point.</p>

Apple's quasi loss in the Epic lawsuit regarding app store take rates makes us all the more bullish on one of our favorite longs...Match Group. And also more bullish on Roblox (another long recommendation) and ATVI (less a beneficiary, but still a good entry point. We think Spotify and Netflix's benefits are overstated. Spotify has run too much on the news, and we think its potentially another good short entry point.

Apple's App Store Price Cut Beneficiaries

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<div id="x_divRplyFwdMsg"><div>NCSoft (036570 KS) has been hammered as brokers downgrade on the poor reception to their new game,  Blade &amp; Soul 2, is far below anticipated in terms of both user feedback and use.  </div></div><div>
<div>The worry here is that now all the eggs are in one basket again (Lineage) as dependency on one game and failure to diversify is a big concern. </div>
<div></div>
<div>When Lineage 2M launched Nov 27th 2019 stock was down 7% on disappointing numbers vs. St estimates and the current fall in Apple AppStore ranking was based on the first 4-5 hrs mind you the Google App user score is 2 out of 5 stars which is concerning.</div>
</div>

NCSoft (036570 KS) has been hammered as brokers downgrade on the poor reception to their new game,  Blade &amp; Soul 2, is far below anticipated in terms of both user feedback and use.  
The worry here is that now all the eggs are in one basket again (Lineage) as dependency on one game and failure to diversify is a big concern. 

When Lineage 2M launched Nov 27th 2019 stock was down 7% on disappointing numbers vs. St estimates and the current fall in Apple AppStore ranking was based on the first 4-5 hrs mind you the Google App user score is 2 out of 5 stars which is concerning.


United States

Activision Blizzard, Inc. publishes, develops, and distributes interactive entertainment software and peripheral products. The Company's products cover diverse game categories, including action/adventure, action sports, racing, role playing, simulation, first-person action, music-based gaming and strategy.

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Activision Blizzard (ATVI US)

Microsoft – Thinking Through the ATVI Acquisition Further

Our initial thoughts on Microsoft’s bid for Activision Blizzard were sceptical in contrast to the majority of commentary on the deal. The more we...

Mio Kato

Electronic Arts (EA) vs. Activision Blizzard - Which Gaming Major Is The Better Performer? (11/2021)

The gaming industry was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic which gave rise to a large community of gamers across the...

Baptista Research

Roblox 3Q21: 30% Move for THESE Results?

Fine quarter for Roblox, but consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively. We would take profits on Roblox and...

Aaron Gabin

Apple's App Store Price Cut Beneficiaries

Apple's quasi loss in the Epic lawsuit regarding app store take rates makes us all the more bullish on one of our favorite longs...Match Group.

Aaron Gabin

Is NCSoft Permanently Broken?

Is Ncsoft permanently broken? stock is down 40% from high and either everyone is tossing in the towel or they are not getting any recognition for...

Ken S. Kim

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