Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Palliser/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.</li>
<li>On the subject of activism, keep an eye on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a>'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.</li>
<li>A <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. </li>
</ul>


The Palliser/Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs Oriental Land (4661 JP) except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.
On the subject of activism, keep an eye on China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.
A Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abu-dhabi-national-energy-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41670:1" rel="noopener">Abu Dhabi National Energy (TAQA UH)</a> has unexpectedly withdrawn from negotiations to launch a takeover bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naturgy-energy-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21271:1" rel="noopener">Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)</a> with CriteriaCaixa.</li>
<li>Criteria may continue to explore other options. CriteriaCaixa and IFM may reconcile. IFM could offer a solution for the exit of CVC and GIP, could potentially increase its stake.</li>
<li>A joint offer from CriteriaCaixa and IFM could well happen. At the current price, I would be long Naturgy, plus one gets paid to wait. Dividend yield is 6.6%.</li>
</ul>



Abu Dhabi National Energy (TAQA UH) has unexpectedly withdrawn from negotiations to launch a takeover bid for Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM) with CriteriaCaixa.
Criteria may continue to explore other options. CriteriaCaixa and IFM may reconcile. IFM could offer a solution for the exit of CVC and GIP, could potentially increase its stake.
A joint offer from CriteriaCaixa and IFM could well happen. At the current price, I would be long Naturgy, plus one gets paid to wait. Dividend yield is 6.6%.


<ul>
<li>Press reports that CriteriaCaixa and TAQA will launch their takeover bid for Naturgy at €27/share imminently, with conversations between CriteriaCaixa and TAQA on the distribution of control practically finished. </li>
<li>The offer will target approximately 54% of the share capital of Naturgy. TAQA must go through an exhaustive permit request process due to the highly regulated businesses of Naturgy.</li>
<li>The shares look fairly priced vs. comparables. At the closing share price of 22 May of €24.92/share, I would be long Naturgy (gross spread to hypothetical offer is 7.7%).</li>
</ul>


Press reports that CriteriaCaixa and TAQA will launch their takeover bid for Naturgy at €27/share imminently, with conversations between CriteriaCaixa and TAQA on the distribution of control practically finished. 
The offer will target approximately 54% of the share capital of Naturgy. TAQA must go through an exhaustive permit request process due to the highly regulated businesses of Naturgy.
The shares look fairly priced vs. comparables. At the closing share price of 22 May of €24.92/share, I would be long Naturgy (gross spread to hypothetical offer is 7.7%).


United Arab Emirates

Abu Dhabi National Energy Company is a global energy company with operations in power generation, water desalination, upstream oil/gas, pipelines, gas storage and LNG regas.

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Abu Dhabi National Energy (TAQA UH)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

It's a No Deal, But...

Abu Dhabi National Energy (TAQA UH) has unexpectedly withdrawn from negotiations to launch a takeover bid for Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

TAQA & Criteria/Naturgy: Imminent Offer

Press reports indicate that CriteriaCaixa and TAQA will imminently launch a takeover bid for Naturgy at €27 per share, with their discussions on...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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