Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In our view, ABM Investama’s FY 2019 results were very weak. Revenue was down while profitability and cash flows fell substantially, driven by both the challenging coal environment and the loss of a key customer. The financial risk profile deteriorated significantly. Liquidity is weak, mainly due to refinancing risk for the USD 350 mn 2022 Notes, which made up most of the reported debt. We believe the FY 2020 results will be even weaker. In addition, we expect rating downgrades of at least one notch, as we see the current B1/B+ ratings from Moody’s and Fitch as highly generous. Eventually, we see potential for the ratings to be downgraded to B3/B- as the refinancing risk grows with time.

  In our view, ABM Investama’s FY 2019 results were very weak. Revenue was down while profitability and cash flows fell substantially, driven by both the challenging coal environment and the loss of a key customer. The financial risk profile deteriorated significantly. Liquidity is weak, mainly due to refinancing risk for the USD 350 mn 2022 Notes, which made up most of the reported debt.   We believe the FY 2020 results will be even weaker. In addition, we expect rating downgrades of at least one notch, as we see the current B1/B+ ratings from Moody’s and Fitch as highly generous. Eventually, we see potential for the ratings to be downgraded to B3/B- as the refinancing risk grows with time. 

ABM Investama - Earnings Flash - FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of May includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of May includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - May 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-6827'>Abm Investama</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-1776'>Indika Energy</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Abm InvestamaIndika Energy

Morning Views Asia: Abm Investama, Indika Energy

The global economic impact of COVID-19 deepened in April, with many countries now expected to see GDP contract in 2020. That said, credit and equity markets were buoyed by central bank stimulus and more positive headlines on the pandemic. This month, we consider the effect of this unprecedented event on the investor psyche, which could heighten risk aversion for some time and weigh heavily on Asian HY corporate credit. We also present a trade idea for Chinese property bonds, where we see promise amid the current uncertainty. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  The global economic impact of COVID-19 deepened in April, with many countries now expected to see GDP contract in 2020. That said, credit and equity markets were buoyed by central bank stimulus and more positive headlines on the pandemic. This month, we consider the effect of this unprecedented event on the investor psyche, which could heighten risk aversion for some time and weigh heavily on Asian HY corporate credit. We also present a trade idea for Chinese property bonds, where we see promise amid the current uncertainty.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Impact Of COVID-19 On Investment Strategy - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - April 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Indonesia

PT Baramulti Suksessarana Tbk is a coal mining company in Kalimatan.

PT Indika Energy Tbk is an energy company. The Company provides energy services, energy resources and infrastructure, primarily in the areas of coal production, engineering, procurement and construction services and power generation services.

PT Rukun Raharja Tbk operates transmission lines and distributes natural gas to industry.

PT Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk produces liquefied petroleum gas.

PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk explores, develops and produces crude oil and natural gas.

PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk is a holding company, whose subsidiary provides open-cut coal mining services to coal producers in Indonesia.

PT Benakat Integra Tbk is an integrated energy and resources company. The Company invests in mining assets in Indonesia including oil, gas, and coal properties.

Mitrabara Adiperdana Tbk PT is a coal mining company based in Indonesia.

PT Samindo Resources Tbk is a coal mining company based in Indonesia.

Nordic American Tankers Limited is a shipping company that owns and charters Suezmax tankers for oil transportation.  The Company's ships are all active in the spot freight market.

Teekay Corporation provides international crude oil and petroleum product transportation services to major oil companies, major oil traders, and government agencies.  The Company provides its services through a fleet of medium size oil tankers worldwide.

Erin Energy Corporation operates as an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company offers crude oil, natural gas, and other oil products. Erin Energy owns a portfolio of onshore and offshore assets in the United States, Nigeria, Kenya, Gambia, South Africa, and Ghana.

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited engages in the research, development, and production of biodiesel products in Thailand.

MITSUUROKO GROUP HOLDINGS CO., LTD. wholesales a variety of fuel products such as liquefied petroleum gas, coal, and briquettes products.  The Company also sells gas appliances and oil-heating equipment.  MITSUUROKO operates office leasing business as well.

Pakistan Oil Fields Limited specializes in the exploration, drilling, production and transmission of petroleum.  The Company also markets Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG).

Rain Industries Limited engages in the production of cement and other related products. The Company manufactures and markets cement, calcined petroleum coke, coal tar pitch, and specialty chemicals.

Clean Energy Fuels Corporation designs, builds, finances and operates natural gas filling stations for vehicle fleets.  The Company also helps its customers acquire and finance natural gas vehicles and obtain local, state, and federal clean air rebates and incentives.

China Aviation Oil Singapore Corporation Limited supplies jet fuel to foreign and domestic airlines flying through China's airports.  The Company also trades in other oil products such as fuel oil, gas oil, crude oil, petrochemical products, including physical and paper swaps, and futures trading.

China Aviation Oil Singapore Corp (CAO SP)

Taiyuan Coal Gasification Co., Ltd. produces and markets coal, coke, gas, and related chemical products.  The Company's products are supplied  to north China and east China areas.

Taiyuan Coal Gasification Company, (000968 CH)

PT ABM Investama Tbk invests in energy resources, energy services and energy infrastructure.  Through subsidiaries, the Company mines coal; offers mining services; offers logistics and warehousing services; generates electricity; and manufactures equipment for the mining, oil and natural gas, electricity generation, and transportation industries.

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ABM Investama (ABMM IJ)

ABM Investama - Earnings Flash - FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

In our view, ABM Investama’s FY 2019 results were very weak. Revenue was down while profitability and cash flows fell substantially, driven by...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - May 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of May includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Abm Investama, Indika Energy

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Impact Of COVID-19 On Investment Strategy - Lucror Analytics

The global economic impact of COVID-19 deepened in April, with many countries now expected to see GDP contract in 2020. That said, credit and...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - April 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations. The report also features relative-value...

Lucror Analytics

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