Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation in Q1FY23 declined 76.2% YoY to INR13.5bn, on a high YoY base, while consolidated Capex went up 33.5% YoY to INR14.8bn</li><li>On a standalone basis, capitalisation/Capex came in at INR13.3bn/INR7.6bn</li><li>Q1FY23 revenue increased 6.8% YoY, led by moderate growth in transmission segment (+5.5% YoY) and strong growth in the telecom (+60.1% YoY) and consultancy (+53.2% YoY) segments</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation in Q1FY23 declined 76.2% YoY to INR13.5bn, on a high YoY base, while consolidated Capex went up 33.5% YoY to INR14.8bnOn a standalone basis, capitalisation/Capex came in at INR13.3bn/INR7.6bnQ1FY23 revenue increased 6.8% YoY, led by moderate growth in transmission segment (+5.5% YoY) and strong growth in the telecom (+60.1% YoY) and consultancy (+53.2% YoY) segmentsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, ABB India, Cummins, Bharat Forge

Ishares Global Consumer Disc / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.</li>
<li>Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.
Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.


Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

<ul><li>Q1 starts on a good note for infrastructure; competitive intensity cools off, commodities correct: In Q1FY23, NHAI awarded ten projects, of which, nine were HAM projects worth INR 98.1bn and one was an EPC project worth INR 7.7bn</li><li>Capital goods sector to benefit from reviving private Capex and realignment of global supply chains; strong case for PE multiple expansion</li><li>Earnings trend YoY/QoQ: We expect EPC/infra universe revenue/EBITDA/PAT to degrow 11.5/6.9/26.5% sequentially and grow 15.7/4.1/10.9% YoY, with EBITDA margin expanding by 72/(163)bps QoQ/YoY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1 starts on a good note for infrastructure; competitive intensity cools off, commodities correct: In Q1FY23, NHAI awarded ten projects, of which, nine were HAM projects worth INR 98.1bn and one was an EPC project worth INR 7.7bnCapital goods sector to benefit from reviving private Capex and realignment of global supply chains; strong case for PE multiple expansionEarnings trend YoY/QoQ: We expect EPC/infra universe revenue/EBITDA/PAT to degrow 11.5/6.9/26.5% sequentially and grow 15.7/4.1/10.9% YoY, with EBITDA margin expanding by 72/(163)bps QoQ/YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

India

ABB India Limited undertakes engineering and construction projects and manufactures heavy engineering and industrial equipment. The Company undertakes projects in the field of energy production, power transmission, transportation, process automation and pollution control. ABB India's products include pollution control equipment, switch gears and high current rectifiers.

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ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, ABB India, Cummins, Bharat Forge

PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation in Q1FY23 declined 76.2% YoY to INR13.5bn, on a high YoY base, while consolidated Capex went up...

HDFC Securities

Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

Starting to see positive signals that suggest downside is limited from here. Still, we need to see reversals of YTD downtrends on $ACWI $ACWX $EFA...

Vermilion Research

Industrials - Bracing for Recovery

In Q1FY23, NHAI awarded ten projects, of which, nine were HAM projects worth INR 98.1bn and one was an EPC project worth INR 7.7bn.

HDFC Securities

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

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