Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Weak domestic demand pressured 1H24 auto production downward by 17% YoY to 760k units.</li><li>Accordingly, we have reduced our 2024E auto production forecast to 1.60mn units, down 13% YoY.</li><li>We view that sector share prices have largely priced in this negative factor, while auto production may have bottomed out in 2Q24. </li></ul>

Weak domestic demand pressured 1H24 auto production downward by 17% YoY to 760k units.Accordingly, we have reduced our 2024E auto production forecast to 1.60mn units, down 13% YoY.We view that sector share prices have largely priced in this negative factor, while auto production may have bottomed out in 2Q24. 

Automotive - 2024E Auto Production Forecast Cut to 1.60mn Units

<ul><li>Auto production in March 2024 continued to slow down YoY for the eighth consecutive month, dragging overall production in 1Q24 down by 18% YoY.</li><li>This will act as a negative catalyst for the 1Q24E earnings outlooks of auto parts makers.</li><li>The sluggish near-term outlook has caused the auto sector to underperform the market YTD, resulting in limited downside risks in terms of the tactical view.</li></ul>

Auto production in March 2024 continued to slow down YoY for the eighth consecutive month, dragging overall production in 1Q24 down by 18% YoY.This will act as a negative catalyst for the 1Q24E earnings outlooks of auto parts makers.The sluggish near-term outlook has caused the auto sector to underperform the market YTD, resulting in limited downside risks in terms of the tactical view.

Automotive - Auto Production Fell 18% YoY in 1Q24

<ul><li>Thai auto production continued to weaken in February 2024, with 2M24 auto output contracting by 15.9% YoY.</li><li>This implies a negative catalyst for the 1Q24E earnings outlooks of auto parts manufacturers.</li><li>We have revised down our 2024E auto output target by 2.0% to 1.85mn units (+0.7% YoY) to reflect weaker-than-expected domestic demand. </li></ul>

Thai auto production continued to weaken in February 2024, with 2M24 auto output contracting by 15.9% YoY.This implies a negative catalyst for the 1Q24E earnings outlooks of auto parts manufacturers.We have revised down our 2024E auto output target by 2.0% to 1.85mn units (+0.7% YoY) to reflect weaker-than-expected domestic demand. 

Automotive. - Auto Output Remained Weak in February 2024

<ul><li>The domestic auto market has sustained its decline, primarily driven by a sharp contraction in the pickup truck segment owing to stringent lending procedures at financial institutions.</li><li>Consequently, auto production in January 2024 witnessed a YoY decrease of 12.5%. We anticipate that as economic conditions recover, particularly with the acceleration of government expenditures, domestic demand will gradually rebound.</li><li>However, we maintain our Neutral rating on the auto sector as the earnings growth prospects have remained moderate. </li></ul>

The domestic auto market has sustained its decline, primarily driven by a sharp contraction in the pickup truck segment owing to stringent lending procedures at financial institutions.Consequently, auto production in January 2024 witnessed a YoY decrease of 12.5%. We anticipate that as economic conditions recover, particularly with the acceleration of government expenditures, domestic demand will gradually rebound.However, we maintain our Neutral rating on the auto sector as the earnings growth prospects have remained moderate. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AH reported a 2Q23 net profit of Bt410mn (flat YoY), better than the market’s projection by 16% but in line with the projection if excluding the FX impact.</li><li>AH reported a 2Q23 core profit of Bt299mn, up 6% YoY.</li><li>Profit from the core businesses surged 68% YoY, helping to offset the decline of 74% YoY in shared profit from affiliates to merely Bt32mn, accounting for just 11% of the total earnings.</li></ul>

AH reported a 2Q23 net profit of Bt410mn (flat YoY), better than the market’s projection by 16% but in line with the projection if excluding the FX impact.AH reported a 2Q23 core profit of Bt299mn, up 6% YoY.Profit from the core businesses surged 68% YoY, helping to offset the decline of 74% YoY in shared profit from affiliates to merely Bt32mn, accounting for just 11% of the total earnings.

Earnings Review - Aapico Hitech Plc. (AH) - AUGUST 15, 2023

Thailand

Aapico Hitech Public Company Limited manufactures car assembly jigs and stamping dies used for manufacturing automobiles in assembly plants. The Company also manufactures OEM automotive parts and operates automobile dealership business.

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Aapico Hitech (AH TB)

Automotive - 2024E Auto Production Forecast Cut to 1.60mn Units

Weak domestic demand pressured 1H24 auto production downward by 17% YoY to 760k units. Accordingly, we have reduced our 2024E auto production...

Krungthai XSpring

Automotive - Auto Production Fell 18% YoY in 1Q24

Auto production in March 2024 continued to slow down YoY for the eighth consecutive month, dragging overall production in 1Q24 down by 18% YoY.

Krungthai XSpring

Automotive. - Auto Output Remained Weak in February 2024

We have revised down our 2024E auto output target by 2.0% to 1.85mn units (+0.7% YoY) to reflect weaker-than-expected domestic demand.

Krungthai XSpring

Automotive - A Weak Start in 2024

We choose AH (Buy; FV at Bt43.2) as our top pick because the firm will potentially benefit further from the transition to electric vehicle (EV)...

Krungthai XSpring

Earnings Review - Aapico Hitech Plc. (AH) - AUGUST 15, 2023

AH reported a 2Q23 net profit of Bt410mn (flat YoY), better than the market’s projection by 16% but in line with the projection if excluding the FX...

Krungthai XSpring

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