Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain our Underperform rating as the valuation metrics indicate that the stock’s valuation remains unattractive, with the share price approximately 11.7% above the new fair value.</li><li>Meanwhile, our tactical view is neutral.</li><li>The new 12M FWD fair value, assessed using the earnings yield method, has been lowered to Bt16.20 (previously Bt16.30) due to both a downward revision of the profit estimates and an increase in the required return, which is used as the discount rate, to 20.8% (previously 19.9%).</li></ul>

We maintain our Underperform rating as the valuation metrics indicate that the stock’s valuation remains unattractive, with the share price approximately 11.7% above the new fair value.Meanwhile, our tactical view is neutral.The new 12M FWD fair value, assessed using the earnings yield method, has been lowered to Bt16.20 (previously Bt16.30) due to both a downward revision of the profit estimates and an increase in the required return, which is used as the discount rate, to 20.8% (previously 19.9%).

Aapico Hitech - Business Expected to Strongly Recover in 2026E

<ul>
<li>We maintain an Underperform rating, as AH remains unattractive from a fundamental valuation perspective.</li>
<li>The stock has approximately 8% downside risk from the fair value (FV) of Bt16.30, based on a required return of 19.9%.</li>
<li>In addition, the long-term growth outlook may be downgraded due to a sharper-than-expected decline in Thai auto production in 9M24.</li>
</ul>


We maintain an Underperform rating, as AH remains unattractive from a fundamental valuation perspective.
The stock has approximately 8% downside risk from the fair value (FV) of Bt16.30, based on a required return of 19.9%.
In addition, the long-term growth outlook may be downgraded due to a sharper-than-expected decline in Thai auto production in 9M24.


Aapico Hitech - 3Q24 Earnings Pressured by Weak Business in Thailand

<ul><li>We switch our rating to Underperform (from Neutral).</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest a more optimistic view on the earnings growth prospects (due to the low base in 2024E), but the valuation is unattractive both in terms of the fundamentals and the tactical view.</li><li>Our 12M forward fair value, based on the earnings yield method, has been revised down to Bt16.30 (vs. Bt23.60) due to downward revisions to our earnings estimates and an increase in the required return as the discount rate to 19.9% (from 19.5% previously).</li></ul>

We switch our rating to Underperform (from Neutral).The valuation metrics suggest a more optimistic view on the earnings growth prospects (due to the low base in 2024E), but the valuation is unattractive both in terms of the fundamentals and the tactical view.Our 12M forward fair value, based on the earnings yield method, has been revised down to Bt16.30 (vs. Bt23.60) due to downward revisions to our earnings estimates and an increase in the required return as the discount rate to 19.9% (from 19.5% previously).

Aapico Hitech - 2H24E Earnings to Accelerate, but Valuation Stretched

<ul><li>We switch to a Neutral rating (from Outperform).</li><li>Our valuation metrics suggest that the steady earnings growth outlook has already been priced in, while there is no catalyst from the tactical view.</li><li>The 12M forward fair value, based on the earnings yield method, has been revised down to Bt23.60 (vs. Bt34.14 previously), in tandem with the downward earnings revisions and a higher required rate of return of 19.5% (vs. 15.0% previously) following our new house view on the macroeconomic variables used for the beta projection.</li></ul>

We switch to a Neutral rating (from Outperform).Our valuation metrics suggest that the steady earnings growth outlook has already been priced in, while there is no catalyst from the tactical view.The 12M forward fair value, based on the earnings yield method, has been revised down to Bt23.60 (vs. Bt34.14 previously), in tandem with the downward earnings revisions and a higher required rate of return of 19.5% (vs. 15.0% previously) following our new house view on the macroeconomic variables used for the beta projection.

Aapico Hitech - A Challenging Year for AH

<ul><li>Based on the current valuation metrics, our recommendation for AH faces potential downgrade risks, aligned with the revision of our earnings projection to account for the more pronounced deterioration in the 1Q24 GPM than initially anticipated.</li><li>AH reported a 1Q24 net profit of Bt319mn (-43% YoY, +132% QoQ), 8% lower than the market’s expectation due to a deeper- than-expected deterioration of the gross profit margin (GPM).</li><li>Excluding the FX impact, the core profit amounted to Bt301mn (-50% YoY and -28% QoQ).</li></ul>

Based on the current valuation metrics, our recommendation for AH faces potential downgrade risks, aligned with the revision of our earnings projection to account for the more pronounced deterioration in the 1Q24 GPM than initially anticipated.AH reported a 1Q24 net profit of Bt319mn (-43% YoY, +132% QoQ), 8% lower than the market’s expectation due to a deeper- than-expected deterioration of the gross profit margin (GPM).Excluding the FX impact, the core profit amounted to Bt301mn (-50% YoY and -28% QoQ).

Aapico Hitech - Sharp Fall in 1Q24 GPM Pressured Earnings

Thailand

Aapico Hitech Public Company Limited manufactures car assembly jigs and stamping dies used for manufacturing automobiles in assembly plants. The Company also manufactures OEM automotive parts and operates automobile dealership business.

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Aapico Hitech (AH TB)

Aapico Hitech - Business Expected to Strongly Recover in 2026E

We maintain our Underperform rating as the valuation metrics indicate that the stock’s valuation remains unattractive, with the share price...

Krungthai XSpring

Aapico Hitech - 3Q24 Earnings Pressured by Weak Business in Thailand

We maintain an Underperform rating, as AH remains unattractive from a fundamental valuation perspective. The stock has approximately 8% downside...

Krungthai XSpring

Aapico Hitech - 2H24E Earnings to Accelerate, but Valuation Stretched

We switch our rating to Underperform (from Neutral). The valuation metrics suggest a more optimistic view on the earnings growth prospects (due to...

Krungthai XSpring

Aapico Hitech - A Challenging Year for AH

Our valuation metrics suggest that the steady earnings growth outlook has already been priced in, while there is no catalyst from the tactical view.

Krungthai XSpring

Aapico Hitech - Sharp Fall in 1Q24 GPM Pressured Earnings

AH reported a 1Q24 net profit of Bt319mn (-43% YoY, +132% QoQ), 8% lower than the market’s expectation due to a deeper- than-expected deterioration...

Krungthai XSpring

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