IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>’s offers from Hancock and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).</li>
<li>A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.</li>
</ul>



Warrego Energy (WGO AU)’s offers from Hancock and Strike Energy (STX AU) close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).
A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In its <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02619979-6A1131336?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Target Statement</a> released this afternoon, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a></strong> has rejected <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a></strong>'s off-market scrip Offer.</li>
<li>Norwest concluded the Offer was opportunistic and did not boast an appropriate premium for control.</li>
<li>MinRes' Offer closes on the 6 February - unless extended.</li>
</ul>


In its Target Statement released this afternoon, Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU) has rejected Mineral Resources (MIN AU)'s off-market scrip Offer.
Norwest concluded the Offer was opportunistic and did not boast an appropriate premium for control.
MinRes' Offer closes on the 6 February - unless extended.


<ul>
<li>Hancock increased its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> off-market takeover bid by 28.6% from A$0.28 to A$0.36 per share along with a 40% minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>Hancock’s latest move is an attempt to ward off a potential offer from a third suitor who has built up a 15% stake (rumoured to be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a>). </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>’s all-scrip offer remains the highest as it is the next takeover target. However, Gina Rinehart’s ego suggests that she will persist no matter the cost.</li>
</ul>


Hancock increased its Warrego Energy (WGO AU) off-market takeover bid by 28.6% from A$0.28 to A$0.36 per share along with a 40% minimum acceptance condition.
Hancock’s latest move is an attempt to ward off a potential offer from a third suitor who has built up a 15% stake (rumoured to be Mineral Resources (MIN AU)). 

Strike Energy (STX AU)’s all-scrip offer remains the highest as it is the next takeover target. However, Gina Rinehart’s ego suggests that she will persist no matter the cost.


Warrego (WGO AU): Hancock Ups Its Offer to A$0.36 as MinRes Looms Large

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/15pc-of-warrego-s-register-changes-hands-fingers-point-to-minres-20230104-p5caeo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> was the buyer of 15% of outstanding shares at A$0.35, 25.0% above Hancock and 4.5% above <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>’s offer.</li>
<li>MinRes’ move is motivated by the desire to have a say in the recent Perth Basin consolidation. It recently lobbed an all-scrip takeover offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>.   </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>'s three largest shareholders are now the three suitors. The emergence of MinRes (if confirmed) suggests that the takeover battle is far from done. </li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that Mineral Resources (MIN AU) was the buyer of 15% of outstanding shares at A$0.35, 25.0% above Hancock and 4.5% above Strike Energy (STX AU)’s offer.
MinRes’ move is motivated by the desire to have a say in the recent Perth Basin consolidation. It recently lobbed an all-scrip takeover offer for Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU).   

Warrego Energy (WGO AU)'s three largest shareholders are now the three suitors. The emergence of MinRes (if confirmed) suggests that the takeover battle is far from done. 


Warrego (WGO AU): Has MinRes Gatecrashed the Party?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>’s revised off-market takeover is 1 STX share per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> share, a 29.0% premium to its previous offer and a 21.4% premium to Hancock’s offer.</li>
<li>Hancock has the war chest to comfortably outbid STX. However, the smart move for Hancock is to be disciplined on price and instead bid for the combined STX/WGO post-completion.</li>
<li>The Board’s view will be sent in Target’s statement to be despatched by 29 December. At the last close, the gross spread to STX’s offer is 6.3%. </li>
</ul>



Strike Energy (STX AU)’s revised off-market takeover is 1 STX share per Warrego Energy (WGO AU) share, a 29.0% premium to its previous offer and a 21.4% premium to Hancock’s offer.
Hancock has the war chest to comfortably outbid STX. However, the smart move for Hancock is to be disciplined on price and instead bid for the combined STX/WGO post-completion.
The Board’s view will be sent in Target’s statement to be despatched by 29 December. At the last close, the gross spread to STX’s offer is 6.3%. 


Warrego (WGO AU): Strike Energy (STX AU) Strikes with a Revised Offer

Australia

AWE Limited is an Australian based oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company currently has oil and gas interests in Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Yemen and the United States, and is actively reviewing additional growth opportunities.

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AWE Ltd (AWE AU)

Warrego (WGO AU): End-Game Scenarios

Unlikely to see another bump as stretched valuations and deal fatigue sets in. Trading through Hancock's terms, the slim 1.3% spread to Strike’s...

Arun George

Norwest Energy Rejects MinRes' Offer

MinRes needs to bump here. This is an easy win if they do. Take down borrow on MinRes and set up a Short MinRes, Long NWE

David Blennerhassett

Warrego (WGO AU): Hancock Ups Its Offer to A$0.36 as MinRes Looms Large

Strike’s all-scrip offer remains higher than Hancock's revised offer as it is the next logical takeover target. However, Gina Rinehart’s ego...

Arun George

Warrego (WGO AU): Has MinRes Gatecrashed the Party?

MinRes is rumoured to be the buyer of a 15% stake. The emergence of MinRes (if confirmed) suggests that the takeover battle is far from done.

Arun George

Warrego (WGO AU): Strike Energy (STX AU) Strikes with a Revised Offer

The smart move for Hancock is to be disciplined on price and instead bid for the combined STX/WGO post-completion. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

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