Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>. Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a>'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.</li>
<li>If you had any <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.</li>
</ul>


Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 

Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Overseas: SPX +0.2%, Nasdaq 0%; Interest rates remain key driver; Target stock +18% on bte Q3 results</li>
<li>Today: NKY Futs -0.4% v cash. JPY 151.4; Bullish plans from Denso; Japan tourism fully recovered</li>
<li>JapanX: Expected further consolidation in the drug store sector looking more likely. The vultures are circling</li>
</ul>


Overseas: SPX +0.2%, Nasdaq 0%; Interest rates remain key driver; Target stock +18% on bte Q3 results
Today: NKY Futs -0.4% v cash. JPY 151.4; Bullish plans from Denso; Japan tourism fully recovered
JapanX: Expected further consolidation in the drug store sector looking more likely. The vultures are circling


Ohayo Japan | Building on Strong Rally; Tsuruha for Sale

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX eaks out gains as markets continue to bid inflation moderation/soft landing narrative; GS Reports the futures is better; TELSA earnings beat despite aggressive price cuts </li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futures flat vs Cash; USDJPY 139.7; Inbound Tourist back in full force; Daily Goods Manufacturers form logistics alliance to combat lack of drivers; Nidec, Disco reports today</li>
<li>NUGGET. JP Office Equipment Makers - could be investment opportunities if they are proactive consolidation. Falling demand and overcapacity demands aggressive industry restructuring.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX eaks out gains as markets continue to bid inflation moderation/soft landing narrative; GS Reports the futures is better; TELSA earnings beat despite aggressive price cuts 
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures flat vs Cash; USDJPY 139.7; Inbound Tourist back in full force; Daily Goods Manufacturers form logistics alliance to combat lack of drivers; Nidec, Disco reports today
NUGGET. JP Office Equipment Makers - could be investment opportunities if they are proactive consolidation. Falling demand and overcapacity demands aggressive industry restructuring.


Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.3% and down WoW; Weak Payrolls numbers lead to fall in US 2Yr to 4.95%, USD weakness;  This week - packed schedule with CPI; Watch Bank earnings</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 142.2, on weaker US payrolls;   JP companies struggle to lift ROE due to expanding Equity Base (=more buybacks?); Kishida to reshuffle cabinet</li>
<li>NUGGET. Heat Pumps - A Big Deal for Daikin(6367)/Melco(6503).  A large addressable, and growing market, and great for the environment. Yes, you should get excited!</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.3% and down WoW; Weak Payrolls numbers lead to fall in US 2Yr to 4.95%, USD weakness;  This week - packed schedule with CPI; Watch Bank earnings
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 142.2, on weaker US payrolls;   JP companies struggle to lift ROE due to expanding Equity Base (=more buybacks?); Kishida to reshuffle cabinet
NUGGET. Heat Pumps - A Big Deal for Daikin(6367)/Melco(6503).  A large addressable, and growing market, and great for the environment. Yes, you should get excited!


Ohayo Japan | Weak Payrolls=Lower Rates; Weaker USD; NUGGET:Heat Pumps-The Future of Cooling/Heating

Japan

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

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Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Ohayo Japan | Building on Strong Rally; Tsuruha for Sale

Stocks remain well bid. In Japan, GDP shrank at annualised 2.1%; Slight decline in NKY Futs ahead of open. Denso puts out bullish plans on EVs....

Mark Chadwick

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must

US Markets continue bullish bid; Nikkei Futures flat vs Cash; USDJPY 139.7; Inbound Tourist back in full force; Daily Goods Manufacturers form...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan | Weak Payrolls=Lower Rates; Weaker USD; NUGGET:Heat Pumps-The Future of Cooling/Heating

Weaker Payrolls drive rates down - a bit; Weaker USD; NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 142.2; JP companies struggle to lift ROE due to expanding...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Ohayo Japan | Building on Strong Rally; Tsuruha for Sale

Stocks remain well bid. In Japan, GDP shrank at annualised 2.1%; Slight decline in NKY Futs ahead of open. Denso puts out bullish plans on EVs....

Mark Chadwick

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan |Inflation Moderation Drives Stocks; NUGGET:JP Office Equip Makers- Consolidation a Must

US Markets continue bullish bid; Nikkei Futures flat vs Cash; USDJPY 139.7; Inbound Tourist back in full force; Daily Goods Manufacturers form...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan | Weak Payrolls=Lower Rates; Weaker USD; NUGGET:Heat Pumps-The Future of Cooling/Heating

Weaker Payrolls drive rates down - a bit; Weaker USD; NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 142.2; JP companies struggle to lift ROE due to expanding...

Mark Chadwick

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...