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New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

These days, Telcos are often seen as near utilities. New Street Research believes this is a dangerous belief. Telecoms is a technology business and the fact that the industry looks broadly similar to 20 years ago does not mean the status quo will remain. &nbsp;The growth of data is the trigger for change. For a variety of reasons we believe a "reversion to mean" for telcos will unfold with high return and value markets underperforming and some low return markets outperforming. &nbsp;Markets at risk include Thailand and Malaysia while India stands out as a potential winner.

These days, Telcos are often seen as near utilities. New Street Research believes this is a dangerous belief. Telecoms is a technology business and the fact that the industry looks broadly similar to 20 years ago does not mean the status quo will remain. &nbsp;The growth of data is the trigger for change. For a variety of reasons we believe a "reversion to mean" for telcos will unfold with high return and value markets underperforming and some low return markets outperforming. &nbsp;Markets at risk include Thailand and Malaysia while India stands out as a potential winner.

Beware highly  valued EM Telcos. We expect reversion to mean and see opportunity in the laggards.

Thailand continues&nbsp;preparations to auction 900 and 1800 MHZ spectrum in Nov/Dec this year, if all things run to plan. Bidding is likely to come from&nbsp;the existing 3 operators plus potential new entrants, Jasmine (with TOT recently suggesting a bid as well). &nbsp;We expect high prices to be paid given the weak spectrum holdings of no 1 player AIS and the limited amount of spectrum on offer.Looking further ahead, we expect spectrum to shift from concession to full ownership (lease) over the next three years. This will enable operators to be masters of their own destiny and not beholden to the authorities (TOT/CAT), but comes with a cost. It is plausible that the total bill for spectrum could reach $6-8bn. That is equivalent to 10-40% of their market cap and 70-280% of cumulative free cash flow in the period 2015-18.Investors should be aware of risks from the auction process delivering large sums to the government but reducing the attractiveness of the sector. In addition the threat of new entry via these auctions is real.&nbsp; The era of super high returns in Thai Telcos is coming to an end.

Thailand continues&nbsp;preparations to auction 900 and 1800 MHZ spectrum in Nov/Dec this year, if all things run to plan. Bidding is likely to come from&nbsp;the existing 3 operators plus potential new entrants, Jasmine (with TOT recently suggesting a bid as well). &nbsp;We expect high prices to be paid given the weak spectrum holdings of no 1 player AIS and the limited amount of spectrum on offer.Looking further ahead, we expect spectrum to shift from concession to full ownership (lease) over the next three years. This will enable operators to be masters of their own destiny and not beholden to the authorities (TOT/CAT), but comes with a cost. It is plausible that the total bill for spectrum could reach $6-8bn. That is equivalent to 10-40% of their market cap and 70-280% of cumulative free cash flow in the period 2015-18.Investors should be aware of risks from the auction process delivering large sums to the government but reducing the attractiveness of the sector. In addition the threat of new entry via these auctions is real.&nbsp; The era of super high returns in Thai Telcos is coming to an end.

Thai Spectrum auctions could be a  massive cash drain on the telcos

Thailand

Total Access Communication Public Company Limited provides cellular mobile telephone services under WorldPhone 800 and WorldPhone 1800 brand names throughout Thailand. The Company also sells cellular handsets and other telecommunications equipment through its WorldMedia network of retail stores.

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Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)

Beware highly valued EM Telcos. We expect reversion to mean and see opportunity in the laggards.

These days, Telcos are often seen as near utilities. New Street Research believes this is a dangerous belief. Telecoms is a technology business and...

New Street Research

Thai Spectrum auctions could be a massive cash drain on the telcos

Thailand continues preparations to auction 900 and 1800 MHZ spectrum in Nov/Dec this year, if all things run to plan. Bidding is likely to come...

New Street Research

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52-week Range

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