IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> shareholders have voted against Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.</li>
<li>The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. This deal break offers several lessons.</li>
<li>Goldlion had the highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below last close.</li>
</ul>



Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) shareholders have voted against Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. This deal break offers several lessons.
Goldlion had the highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below last close.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>IMAX Corp, listed on the NYSE, is a 71% shareholder of IMAX China, a HKEX listed subsidiary - in charge of the release of IMAX films in Greater China.</li><li>IMAX HK is rather illiquid - 7.15 HK is a mere $0.93 USD - with no investor presentations, no earnings calls - again, as is common with ideas in this blog, we are dealing with a company that is more or less “unownable” for most, flies under the radar, and therefore sports a, for a lack of a better word, shite valuation.</li><li>Whilst IMAX Corp, the parent company, trades at ~8x EBITDA, the “backwater” subsidiary IMAX HK, trades at a mere ~5x EBITDA, despite margins being more than 10 pts higher.</li></ul>

IMAX Corp, listed on the NYSE, is a 71% shareholder of IMAX China, a HKEX listed subsidiary - in charge of the release of IMAX films in Greater China.IMAX HK is rather illiquid - 7.15 HK is a mere $0.93 USD - with no investor presentations, no earnings calls - again, as is common with ideas in this blog, we are dealing with a company that is more or less “unownable” for most, flies under the radar, and therefore sports a, for a lack of a better word, shite valuation.Whilst IMAX Corp, the parent company, trades at ~8x EBITDA, the “backwater” subsidiary IMAX HK, trades at a mere ~5x EBITDA, despite margins being more than 10 pts higher.

Flagging a potentially interesting situation: IMAX China (HKG: 1970)

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Special Situation Investments

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

<ul><li>Theratechnologies (THTX) received takeover offers from Future Pak, with a $3.51/share cash offer plus a CVR worth $0.99/share.</li><li>Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY:MC) plans to repurchase 9% of shares at €26.5/share, with priority for tenders below 375 shares.</li><li>Lensar (LNSR) is being acquired by Alcon for $14/share cash plus a CVR worth up to $2.75/share.</li></ul>

Theratechnologies (THTX) received takeover offers from Future Pak, with a $3.51/share cash offer plus a CVR worth $0.99/share.Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY:MC) plans to repurchase 9% of shares at €26.5/share, with priority for tenders below 375 shares.Lensar (LNSR) is being acquired by Alcon for $14/share cash plus a CVR worth up to $2.75/share.

Analyzing Active Quick Pitches: Takeovers, Tender Offers, Strategic Reviews and More

<ul><li>NIOX Group received a non-binding takeover proposal from Keensight Capital at 81p/share, with ongoing negotiations and a deadline of April 17.</li><li>NZME Limited is exploring a separation of its OneRoof business, with activist investor Jim Grenon launching a proxy fight.</li><li>Øystein Spetalen triggered a mandatory bid in SAGA Pure, presenting a low-risk opportunity with a 40% spread to NAV.</li></ul>

NIOX Group received a non-binding takeover proposal from Keensight Capital at 81p/share, with ongoing negotiations and a deadline of April 17.NZME Limited is exploring a separation of its OneRoof business, with activist investor Jim Grenon launching a proxy fight.Øystein Spetalen triggered a mandatory bid in SAGA Pure, presenting a low-risk opportunity with a 40% spread to NAV.

Current Investment Opportunities: Mergers, Liquidations, Strategic Reviews and More

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> shareholders have voted against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>’s HK$24.60 offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> and Henlius deal breaks have rewritten the HKEx merger arb rulebook. The Henlius deal break offers several lessons.</li>
<li>The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares remain vulnerable and could touch HK$15.  </li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) shareholders have voted against Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) and Henlius deal breaks have rewritten the HKEx merger arb rulebook. The Henlius deal break offers several lessons.
The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares remain vulnerable and could touch HK$15.  


Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

Hong Kong

IMAX China Holding, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, broadcasts movies in theaters. IMAX China Holding serves customers in China.

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IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Unexpected HK Arbageddon

The Goldlion deal break was unexpected, and the HKEx merger arb rulebook will be rewritten. My estimated deal-break price is HK$0.953, 36.0% below...

Arun George

Flagging a potentially interesting situation: IMAX China (HKG: 1970)

Whilst IMAX Corp, the parent company, trades at ~8x EBITDA, the “backwater” subsidiary IMAX HK, trades at a mere ~5x EBITDA, despite margins being...

Acid Investments

Analyzing Active Quick Pitches: Takeovers, Tender Offers, Strategic Reviews and More

Theratechnologies (THTX) received takeover offers from Future Pak, with a $3.51/share cash offer plus a CVR worth $0.99/share.

Special Situation Investments

Current Investment Opportunities: Mergers, Liquidations, Strategic Reviews and More

NIOX Group received a non-binding takeover proposal from Keensight Capital at 81p/share, with ongoing negotiations and a deadline of April 17.

Special Situation Investments

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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