Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven


For the month of May, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7.3bn.



Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.







New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




APN Property Group (APD AU) 
Property
0.2
Scheme
50%


APN Prop (APD AU): Dexus' Done Deal



Boral Ltd (BLD AU) 
Construction
4.8
Off-market
Nil


Boral Ltd (BLD AU): Seven's Nil Premium



Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) 
Healthcare
0.2
Scheme
30%


Japara Healthcare (JHC AU): Here Comes The Calvary


 



Hong Kong




Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) 
Banking
0.2
Scheme
51.2%



Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Takeover Talk As Shares Pop
Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Yue Xiu's Offer Is Light



 



Japan




Aomori Bank (8342 JP) / Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) 
Bank
0.6
Merger



Aomori Bank &amp; Michinoku Bank Merger - Nothing To Write Home About Yet



EPS Holdings (4282 JP) 
Data/software
0.1
Tender Offer
35.5%


Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS


 Locoguide (4497 JP) / Kufu (4399 JP)

Real estate
0.4
Merger



Locoguide (4497 JP) - Kufu (4399 JP): Merger Is a Done Deal



Maruka Machinery (7594 JP) / Furusato Industries (8087 JP) 
Trading
0.4
Merger



A Complex SmallCap Merger in Japan: Maruka (7594) And Furusato (8087)



Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP) 
Security
0.3
Tender Offer
66.2%


Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)








Malaysia




Can-One Bhd (CAN MK) 
Manufacturing
0.1
MTO
15.8%


Can-One (CAN MK)? Yeoh Can Lah!



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) 
Healthcare
N/A
N/A
N/A


IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): More Medicine For Mitsui?


Source: Smartkarma Insights






The above does not include BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU) lobbing a non-binding offer of A$4bn (A$1bn cash, $3bn scrip into BET) for Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)'s wagering and media division, and Apollo's prior tilt - Tabcorp (TAH AU): Apollo Shows Its Hand.

Nor does the table include the rumoured merger between  Angang Steel Co Ltd (H) (347 HK) and Bengang Steel (000761 CH) - Amalgamated Steel: Merging Angang &amp; Bengang As, Bs, and Hs.



The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals). This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in May of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No May update




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

1-May: Capital Group announced it has sold its entire 9.7% stake in Bingo Industries (BIN AU).




Crown Resorts (CWN AU) 

10-May: Crown Resorts: Blackstone &amp; Star Place Their Bets
17-May: Crown Says Blackstone's Bid Is Light. Undecided On Star
20-May: Crown Resorts Ltd: Blackstone Offer Rejected, Star Offer May Still Not Reflect True Forward Value




Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) 

No May update




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

27-May: Link Group (LNK AU): KKR Opens The Bidding For PEXA
31-May: Link Admin (LNK AU) Goes IPO Route For PEXA Afterall




Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 

2-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump
6-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): Bidding War Continues as SS&amp;C Overbids for the 4th Time
14-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): +120% in ~2 Months but Bidding War Continues....




McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) 

No May update




Mortgage Choice (MOC AU) 

26-Mau FIRB gives its approval



Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)

14-May: Target's Statement and Bidder's Statements were published. Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)'s Board has unanimously recommended shareholders to accept the Offer. 




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

12-May: Think Childcare (TNK AU) has agreed to extend the Exclusivity Period with Busy Bees to 31st May 2021 (vs. original deadline of 14th May). This is still a non-binding deal with an expected completion date to be in 1Q CY22. 




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

1-May: And so it goes - MAFM bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.26.
7-May: MAFM exercises a call option and acquires 16.2% of Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU).
28-May Roc bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.29/share.  And says it will overbid any MAFM counter! 




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 

10-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/Aware's Done Deal
19-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/​Aware’s Scheme Doc Despatched. EGM On 22 June










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 

1-May: Beijing Digital (6188 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Fair
20-May: Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK)'s MGO is now unconditional in all respects. 




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

28-May: China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Movement In The Works?




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

7-May: In its monthly update regarding a potential Offer, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) says there is no update.




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 

10-May: China Youzan (8083 HK): Reality Check As Shares Rollover




Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 

4-May: Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) will hold an EGM on the 26 May for shareholders to vote on the sale of the Hong Kong and Taiwan warehouse businesses to Kerry Holdings. 
26-May: At its SGM, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale of its Hong Kong, Taiwan warehouse business to Kerry Holdings.




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

No May update




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

No April update




Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) 

3-May: Languang Justbon (2606 HK): Offer Now Open - For Up To Four Months










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) 

4-May: The Detailed Public Statement on Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) has been released. The Open Offer is scheduled tentatively to run from 18 June to 1 July, which means it is running Very Tight and the option is worth a bit less than I expected. But that just means there is more gamma. One could get big at the high Rs 1600s area. 




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

4-May: Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) 
No May update



Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No May update



Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) 
17-May:  Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) has responded to Aslead Strategic Value Fund's Tender Offer with its initial Target Opinion Statement which is "Opinion Withheld." This is because Fuji Kosan hasn't actually done anything yet - two weeks in. They have sent questions to Aslead, and Aslead has five business days to respond. This is slow-walking it. This tender offer is likely to be extended because of that.



Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) 

5-May: Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?




Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

13-May: Honshu Chemical (4115) Shareholders Perhaps One Day From a Wrong Price Takeover
16-May:: Honshu Chemical Shareholders Get the Short End of the Stick As The Board Is Ex-Gourd




Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) 

6-May:  Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight
11-May:  Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office
13-May:  Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things
20-May:  Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter
23-May:  Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal
24-May: Starwood has extended their Tender Offer on Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) from the 24th of May to 15th of June after the close of the 24th. They did not raise the price. This is basically the equivalent of Starwood calling Invesco's bluff. They can extend again if they want but they are going to make Invesco come out. They can change price later if they think it necessary.



Japan Asia (3751 JP)
No May update



Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) 

9-May:  Sawada Selldown Was NOT Done - Shareholder Structure Looks Different Now
23-May: Sawada Is A Different Stock Now
31-May:  Be Careful of Expectations on Sawada (8699)




Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 

14-May: Toshiba – Shareholder Returns Trump Weak Guidance
17-May: Toshiba Results &amp; Shareholder Return - Possibly Big Impact Buyback Coming











New Zealand


Comments 




Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 

No May update











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements)




Procurri Corporation (PROC SP) 

3-May: The Partial Offer has not become unconditional in all respects on the Closing Date and has therefore lapsed










Thailand


Comments




Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) 

No May update




Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) 

No May update






IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

On 6 May 2021, Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a>, the largest shareholder with a 32.90% stake, is currently exploring a proposal to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihh-healthcare-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:876:1" rel="noopener">IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)</a>. Mitsui is aiming to partner with private equity firms and has reached out to Khazanah Nasional Berhad, the second-largest shareholder with a 26.02% stake, to acquire its stake, according to Bloomberg. Mitsui and IHH have not formally commented on the report. On the back of the report, the shares have risen 8.8% from the unaffected price of RM5.20 (5 May) to the last close price of RM5.66. IHH is listed on the Main Markets of Bursa Malaysia and the Singapore Stock Exchange. In Malaysia, the threshold for triggering a mandatory general offer (MGO) is the offeror and concert parties owning 33% or more of the voting shares. Mitsui sits just below the threshold and the acquisition of further shares from Khazanah Nasional Berhad would trigger an MGO. <div class="content-highlight">We think that report has some credibility due to Mitsui’s view that IHH is a core asset to fulfil its ambition of expanding in the largest healthcare ecosystem in Asia. Also, Mitsui has a previous working relationship with Khazanah Nasional Berhad and announced the acquisition of a 16% stake in IHH from Khazanah Nasional Berhad in November 2018. Overall, at the last close price, the downside risk is low (trading close to break price) with a good probability of upside (announcement of a formal proposal). </div>

On 6 May 2021, Bloomberg reported that Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP), the largest shareholder with a 32.90% stake, is currently exploring a proposal to privatise IHH Healthcare (IHH MK). Mitsui is aiming to partner with private equity firms and has reached out to Khazanah Nasional Berhad, the second-largest shareholder with a 26.02% stake, to acquire its stake, according to Bloomberg. Mitsui and IHH have not formally commented on the report. On the back of the report, the shares have risen 8.8% from the unaffected price of RM5.20 (5 May) to the last close price of RM5.66. IHH is listed on the Main Markets of Bursa Malaysia and the Singapore Stock Exchange. In Malaysia, the threshold for triggering a mandatory general offer (MGO) is the offeror and concert parties owning 33% or more of the voting shares. Mitsui sits just below the threshold and the acquisition of further shares from Khazanah Nasional Berhad would trigger an MGO. We think that report has some credibility due to Mitsui’s view that IHH is a core asset to fulfil its ambition of expanding in the largest healthcare ecosystem in Asia. Also, Mitsui has a previous working relationship with Khazanah Nasional Berhad and announced the acquisition of a 16% stake in IHH from Khazanah Nasional Berhad in November 2018. Overall, at the last close price, the downside risk is low (trading close to break price) with a good probability of upside (announcement of a formal proposal). 

IHH Healthcare’s Possible Privatisation by Mitsui

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press, Tabcorp, Invesco Office, Justbon, IHH Healthcare, JD.com

On the <a href="https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement?keyword=&amp;cat=&amp;sub_type=&amp;company=5225&amp;mkt=&amp;alph=&amp;sec=&amp;subsec=&amp;dt_ht=02%2F10%2F2018&amp;dt_lt=29%2F12%2F2018%23%2F&amp;page=2#/?category=all" target="_blank" rel="noopener">29 November</a> 2018, Khazanah Nasional sold a 16%, US$2.01bn stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihh-healthcare-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:876:1" rel="noopener">IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a>, elevating Mitsui's long-time mid-teens stake to 32.9% - allowing Mitsui to become IHH's largest shareholder - with Khazanah's holding declining to 26%. Mitsui's stake is a shade below Malaysia's 33% mandatory takeover threshold. 
Reportedly Mitsui is now exploring a deal to take IHH private, and has been sounded out by private equity outfits as to a potential transaction. According to media reports, Khazanah has been approached to sell its stake. 
Shares closed up 7.88% yesterday on the rumours.
More below the fold.

On the 29 November 2018, Khazanah Nasional sold a 16%, US$2.01bn stake in IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) to Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP), elevating Mitsui's long-time mid-teens stake to 32.9% - allowing Mitsui to become IHH's largest shareholder - with Khazanah's holding declining to 26%. Mitsui's stake is a shade below Malaysia's 33% mandatory takeover threshold. 
Reportedly Mitsui is now exploring a deal to take IHH private, and has been sounded out by private equity outfits as to a potential transaction. According to media reports, Khazanah has been approached to sell its stake. 
Shares closed up 7.88% yesterday on the rumours.
More below the fold. 

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): More Medicine For Mitsui?

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> announced a robust set of results for 1Q2021 late last week, with revenue growth of +37.6% YoY, mainly driven by COVID-19 cases, which command a higher treatment intensity.
Volume for Non-COVID-19 inpatient days also increased, up +5.6% QoQ compared to 4Q 2020, with occupancy improving to 61% for non-COVID beds. The improvement in non-COVID-19 patients bodes well for this year's outlook. 
Mitra Keluarga continues to add more hospitals, through both greenfield and brownfield expansion plans and has opened one new hospital already this year. It will commence the groundbreaking for its 27th &amp; 28th hospitals in 1H2021. M&amp;A opportunities also remain a potential growth driver with two other hospitals currently in the pipeline. 
Patient numbers declined in 1Q2021 YoY but revenues per outpatient and inpatient days increased significantly due to a significantly higher number of COVID-19 patients being treated. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> bed Occupancy Ratio reached 63.4% for 1Q2021, compared to 65.7% in 1Q2020, mainly boosts by high COVID-19 bed occupancies, although non-COVID bed occupancies were not far off last year.
<div class="content-highlight">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> trades on 23.9x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 24.2x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average of 29.5x making the company look relatively attractive. It is likely to see a gradual tapering off in terms of revenues from COVID-19 treatments as the vaccination program starts to gain traction but it will still be an important source of revenue in the medium term, together with the fact that it is already seeing a pick-up in its normal elective treatments.
</div>

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) announced a robust set of results for 1Q2021 late last week, with revenue growth of +37.6% YoY, mainly driven by COVID-19 cases, which command a higher treatment intensity.
Volume for Non-COVID-19 inpatient days also increased, up +5.6% QoQ compared to 4Q 2020, with occupancy improving to 61% for non-COVID beds. The improvement in non-COVID-19 patients bodes well for this year's outlook. 
Mitra Keluarga continues to add more hospitals, through both greenfield and brownfield expansion plans and has opened one new hospital already this year. It will commence the groundbreaking for its 27th &amp; 28th hospitals in 1H2021. M&amp;A opportunities also remain a potential growth driver with two other hospitals currently in the pipeline. 
Patient numbers declined in 1Q2021 YoY but revenues per outpatient and inpatient days increased significantly due to a significantly higher number of COVID-19 patients being treated. 
Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) bed Occupancy Ratio reached 63.4% for 1Q2021, compared to 65.7% in 1Q2020, mainly boosts by high COVID-19 bed occupancies, although non-COVID bed occupancies were not far off last year.

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) trades on 23.9x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 24.2x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average of 29.5x making the company look relatively attractive. It is likely to see a gradual tapering off in terms of revenues from COVID-19 treatments as the vaccination program starts to gain traction but it will still be an important source of revenue in the medium term, together with the fact that it is already seeing a pick-up in its normal elective treatments.


Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ) - Occupancy and Profitability Rising

Malaysia

IHH Healthcare Bhd provides healthcare services. The Company operates hospitals as well as medical centers, clinics and ancillary healthcare businesses across multiple countries, including Singapore, Malaysia, Turkey, The Peoples Republic of China, India, Hong Kong,  Macedonia, the Netherlands and Brunei.

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IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)

(Mostly) Asia M&A: May 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals).

David Blennerhassett

IHH Healthcare’s Possible Privatisation by Mitsui

Mitsui, the largest shareholder, is currently exploring a proposal to privatise IHH. Overall, at the last close price, the downside risk is low...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press, Tabcorp, Invesco Office, Justbon, IHH Healthcare, JD.com

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett