Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Recent underperformance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> holding reflects a strategic urgency. </li>
</ul>


Recent underperformance of Newmont Mining (NEM US) vs Peers appears to be part of a "perfect storm". 

PCCW Ltd (8 HK) has an attractive yield on its side; and Richard Li has been buying. But a 6% premium to NAV is unsustainable for this holding company structure.
Palliser Capital's straightforward request is for a 35% reduction in Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s Oriental Land (4661 JP) holding reflects a strategic urgency. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

<ul>
<li>Malaysian conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ytl-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8553:1" rel="noopener">YTL Corp Bhd (YTL MK)</a> is coming up "cheap" versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ytl-power-international-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1239:1" rel="noopener">YTL Power International (YTLP MK)</a>. And Richard Li chips away at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on YTL and PCCW are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Malaysian conglomerate YTL Corp Bhd (YTL MK) is coming up "cheap" versus YTL Power International (YTLP MK). And Richard Li chips away at PCCW Ltd (8 HK).
Preceding my comments on YTL and PCCW are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: YTL Is Coming Up Cheap; Li Buys More PCCW

<ul>
<li>This may get squeezy after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-yusen-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12285:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)</a> announced a ¥200bn over 9mos. Do not be short. Be long. </li>
<li>On an implied stub and simple ratio, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11074:1" rel="noopener">Takara Holdings (2531 JP)</a> is trading rich to 60.9%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Remain bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> vs TOPIX, especially near-term. But this is a much less exciting and squeeze-able opportunity than before,</li>
</ul>


This may get squeezy after Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP) announced a ¥200bn over 9mos. Do not be short. Be long. 
On an implied stub and simple ratio, Takara Holdings (2531 JP) is trading rich to 60.9%-held Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP). 
Remain bullish Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) vs TOPIX, especially near-term. But this is a much less exciting and squeeze-able opportunity than before,


Last Week in Event SPACE: Nippon Yusen, Takara, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, PCCW/HKT, ANZ

<ul>
<li>Net of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> recorded negative EBITDA of HK$378mn in the 1H23.</li>
<li>This is the largest six-month negative EBITDA figure since the EBITDA loss of HK$427mn in 2H22, and the third largest in the past decade. </li>
<li>PCCWs current discount to NAV is at an unsustainable 5%.</li>
</ul>


Net of HKT Ltd (6823 HK), PCCW Ltd (8 HK) recorded negative EBITDA of HK$378mn in the 1H23.
This is the largest six-month negative EBITDA figure since the EBITDA loss of HK$427mn in 2H22, and the third largest in the past decade. 
PCCWs current discount to NAV is at an unsustainable 5%.


<ul>
<li>RMB dual counter started trading. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>'s A-shares trade at 3x the multiple. THAT is a big discount to harvest. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a>'s CFO exits an indirect stake of 6.38% around Feihe's all-time low. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19029:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Co Ltd (086520 KS)</a> has swatted aside analyst downgrades and the indictment of its chairman to touch an all-time high</li>
</ul>


RMB dual counter started trading. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)'s A-shares trade at 3x the multiple. THAT is a big discount to harvest. 

China Feihe (6186 HK)'s CFO exits an indirect stake of 6.38% around Feihe's all-time low. 

EcoPro Co Ltd (086520 KS) has swatted aside analyst downgrades and the indictment of its chairman to touch an all-time high


Last Week in Event SPACE: Great Wall Motor, China Feihe, EcoPro, PCCW

Hong Kong

HKT Trust and HKT Ltd trade together as a stapled security.  HKT Ltd provides telecommunications services.  The Company's business provides telecommunications products and services including local telephony services, local data and broadband services, international telecommunications services, and other services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

HKT Ltd (6823 HK)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, Keisei Electric, PCCW, Cosmo Energy, Leapmotor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: YTL Is Coming Up Cheap; Li Buys More PCCW

PCCW has an attractive yield on its side, and Li buying. But a 6% premium is unsustainable for this holding company structure. I'd reverse the stub...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Nippon Yusen, Takara, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, PCCW/HKT, ANZ

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

PCCW's Stub Ops Spill More Red Ink

A 5% discount to NAV is tight, relative to history, for this holding company structure. If you had set up the stub, I'd be unwinding here, with a...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Great Wall Motor, China Feihe, EcoPro, PCCW

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)