Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> spiked 12.3% yesterday in response to media reports (like <a href="https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/202702/China-Mobile-explores-acquiring-Hong-Kong-telecom-firm-HKBN%C2%A0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this one</a>) that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> was running a ruler over the company.</li>
<li>This follows Bloomberg reports last month and in May last year, that I Square's HGC Global Communications and numerous PE outfits were kicking tyres of the Hong Kong broadband play.</li>
<li>Over the weekend, Hong Kong's security chief was quoted as saying "the internet could become a major loophole when maintaining national security". <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT (6823 HK)</a> is a potential privatisation candidate. </li>
</ul>



HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) spiked 12.3% yesterday in response to media reports (like this one) that China Mobile (941 HK) was running a ruler over the company.
This follows Bloomberg reports last month and in May last year, that I Square's HGC Global Communications and numerous PE outfits were kicking tyres of the Hong Kong broadband play.
Over the weekend, Hong Kong's security chief was quoted as saying "the internet could become a major loophole when maintaining national security". HKT (6823 HK) is a potential privatisation candidate. 


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/china-mobile-explores-acquiring-hong-kong-telecom-firm-hkbn-sources-2023-04-18/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> is exploring a potential buyout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>. The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. </li>
<li>To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.</li>
<li>PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.</li>
</ul>



Reuters reported that China Mobile (600941 CH) is exploring a potential buyout of HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. 
To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.
PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/hong-kong-s-hkbn-is-said-to-get-1-billion-buyout-offer-from-hgc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> has received a takeover offer from HGC Global Communications at a valuation of more than US$1 billion (implies around HK$6 per share).</li>
<li>The shares rose 11.6% to HK$5.59 before entering a trading halt. The rumoured price is underwhelming compared to historical multiples and share prices. </li>
<li>HKBN has a relatively concentrated shareholder register which suggests that the rumoured takeover premium of around 20% is not going to cut it.</li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reportedHKBN Ltd (1310 HK) has received a takeover offer from HGC Global Communications at a valuation of more than US$1 billion (implies around HK$6 per share).
The shares rose 11.6% to HK$5.59 before entering a trading halt. The rumoured price is underwhelming compared to historical multiples and share prices. 
HKBN has a relatively concentrated shareholder register which suggests that the rumoured takeover premium of around 20% is not going to cut it.


HKBN (1310 HK): Trading Halt, HGC’s Rumoured Takeover Offer

<ul>
<li>At a time when the LSE has dumbed down the checks and balances for listed companies, now may be the right time to consider collapsing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a>'s DLC.</li>
<li>Re: Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal, long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, but this may not last. It has worked very well. </li>
<li>Unless we see a significant (and sustainable) reversal in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a>'s US/Mexican ops in the interim results, now hardly appears the opportune time for a Smithfield IPO.</li>
</ul>


At a time when the LSE has dumbed down the checks and balances for listed companies, now may be the right time to consider collapsing Rio Tinto (RIO AU)'s DLC.
Re: Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal, long Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) vs. Fast Retailing (9983 JP), but this may not last. It has worked very well. 
Unless we see a significant (and sustainable) reversal in WH Group (288 HK)'s US/Mexican ops in the interim results, now hardly appears the opportune time for a Smithfield IPO.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Rio Tinto, Ryohin Keikaku/Fast Retailing, WH Group, ThaiBev/F&N, PCCW

<ul>
<li>Continued stub losses are one thing. Ballooning <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> parent debt is another. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on PCCW and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>.These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Continued stub losses are one thing. Ballooning PCCW Ltd (8 HK) parent debt is another. 
Preceding my comments on PCCW and HKT Ltd (6823 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
.These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: PCCW's Premium To NAV Is Unsustainable

Hong Kong

HKT Trust and HKT Ltd trade together as a stapled security.  HKT Ltd provides telecommunications services.  The Company's business provides telecommunications products and services including local telephony services, local data and broadband services, international telecommunications services, and other services.

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HKT Ltd (6823 HK)

If HKBN Gets Taken Out, Who's Next?

Is $10/share for HKBN enough to kick out TPG? Maybe. And it's peanuts for the likes of China Mobile sitting on cash of US$33bn. Separately, HKT is...

David Blennerhassett

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme...

Arun George

HKBN (1310 HK): Trading Halt, HGC’s Rumoured Takeover Offer

It will be tough to pull off privatisation at the rumoured valuation of more than US$1bn (around HK$6 per share). Nevertheless, the renewed...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Rio Tinto, Ryohin Keikaku/Fast Retailing, WH Group, ThaiBev/F&N, PCCW

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: PCCW's Premium To NAV Is Unsustainable

PCCW has an attractive yield. But that's about it. A 4% premium to NAV is unsustainable. I'd reverse the stub here - short PCCW, long HKT.

David Blennerhassett

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