Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*Worries In Both Hong Kong and Mainland China: </em></strong>The Hong Kong retail portfolio's rental reversion rate continued to be challenged YOY in FY 1H22, albeit slightly improving from a negative 1.8% in FY 2H21 to a barely positive low single digits. Not surprisingly, this weakness would appear to be with us for an extended period - especially given the continued border closures amid the COVID-19 disruption.  The mainland Chinese expansion remains worrisome, given the likely carry-on impact of stress seen in the broader mainland Chinese property market and its lenders; and</p><p><strong><em>*Poor Capital Management Becoming A Big Problem: </em></strong>Link REIT (823.HK) [Link] management also appears hell-bent on destroying shareholder value with deals which make little financial sense. Link recently announced the acquisition of Happy Valley Shopping Mall in Guangzhou where the current annualized NPI yield barely covering the project’s cost of funding. In order to improve occupancy, it would appear that Link would likely need to offer significant tenant enticements, and investment massively in asset enhancement. Bizarrely instead of weighing buybacks return versus new investment ROI, management views share buybacks as a mechanism to defend shares against short-selling. </p>

*Worries In Both Hong Kong and Mainland China: The Hong Kong retail portfolio's rental reversion rate continued to be challenged YOY in FY 1H22, albeit slightly improving from a negative 1.8% in FY 2H21 to a barely positive low single digits. Not surprisingly, this weakness would appear to be with us for an extended period - especially given the continued border closures amid the COVID-19 disruption.  The mainland Chinese expansion remains worrisome, given the likely carry-on impact of stress seen in the broader mainland Chinese property market and its lenders; and*Poor Capital Management Becoming A Big Problem: Link REIT (823.HK) [Link] management also appears hell-bent on destroying shareholder value with deals which make little financial sense. Link recently announced the acquisition of Happy Valley Shopping Mall in Guangzhou where the current annualized NPI yield barely covering the project’s cost of funding. In order to improve occupancy, it would appear that Link would likely need to offer significant tenant enticements, and investment massively in asset enhancement. Bizarrely instead of weighing buybacks return versus new investment ROI, management views share buybacks as a mechanism to defend shares against short-selling. 

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascendas-india-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:935" rel="noopener">Ascendas India Trust (AIT SP)</a> to develop its first Data Centre campus in Navi Mumbai</h3><ul><li>AIT will invest ~INR12bn (~S$216.6m) to develop and operate phase one of its first data centre campus on a prime site in India. It will be one of the largest data centre campuses in Airoli, a growing data centre hub in Navi Mumbai. The 6.6acre greenfield site will be developed in phases into a fully-fitted data centre campus with a total potential built-up area of up to 575,000sqft and 90MW of power to host customers such as global technology giants and cloud service providers, as well as large domestic enterprise clients</li><li>The total costs of the acquisition including purchase consideration will be financed through a combination of debt and internal resources. The acquisition of the site from third-party vendors is expected to be completed by 3Q21. The data centre campus will comprise two buildings. In phase one, the first building, which is scheduled to be ready by 2Q24, will have a built-up area of about 325,000sqft</li><li>The data centre campus site is situated in a prime location along Thane-Belapur Road, easily accessible from Mumbai city via the Eastern Express Highway. Navi Mumbai has emerged as a preferred data centre location since it offers proximity to sea cable landing stations, larger land parcels with clear title, abundant and scalable power, developed infrastructure and seamless vendor neutral network connectivity</li><li>When fully developed, the data centre campus will have an overall capacity to host ~8,500 racks and operate at an efficient power usage effectiveness of ~1.4. Post-acquisition and completion of the phase one, AIT’s portfolio size (including pipeline projects) will increase by 1.2% from ~24.9m sqft to 25.2m sqft.</li></ul>

SingaporeAscendas India Trust (AIT SP) to develop its first Data Centre campus in Navi MumbaiAIT will invest ~INR12bn (~S$216.6m) to develop and operate phase one of its first data centre campus on a prime site in India. It will be one of the largest data centre campuses in Airoli, a growing data centre hub in Navi Mumbai. The 6.6acre greenfield site will be developed in phases into a fully-fitted data centre campus with a total potential built-up area of up to 575,000sqft and 90MW of power to host customers such as global technology giants and cloud service providers, as well as large domestic enterprise clientsThe total costs of the acquisition including purchase consideration will be financed through a combination of debt and internal resources. The acquisition of the site from third-party vendors is expected to be completed by 3Q21. The data centre campus will comprise two buildings. In phase one, the first building, which is scheduled to be ready by 2Q24, will have a built-up area of about 325,000sqftThe data centre campus site is situated in a prime location along Thane-Belapur Road, easily accessible from Mumbai city via the Eastern Express Highway. Navi Mumbai has emerged as a preferred data centre location since it offers proximity to sea cable landing stations, larger land parcels with clear title, abundant and scalable power, developed infrastructure and seamless vendor neutral network connectivityWhen fully developed, the data centre campus will have an overall capacity to host ~8,500 racks and operate at an efficient power usage effectiveness of ~1.4. Post-acquisition and completion of the phase one, AIT’s portfolio size (including pipeline projects) will increase by 1.2% from ~24.9m sqft to 25.2m sqft.

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (5Jul21) - AIT Builds Its First DC in Navi Mumbai

<p><strong><em>*Better, But Weak Metrics: </em></strong>Link REIT (823.HK) [Link REIT] reported a positive FY 2H21 bottom-line result of HKD 5.3 bn, increasing HKD 9.4 bn over the HKD 4.1 bn in losses posted in FY 1H21. However, when we exclude Link’s non-cash FV marks of HKD 2.0 bn, operating performance cam in at just HKD 3.3 bn – improving just HKD 143 mn (4.5%) HOH. The positive HOH operating performance was driven by an increase in revenues from mainland China and overseas related property;  </p><p><em><strong>*Worries Remain In Hong Kong: </strong></em>Hong Kong retail portfolio's rental reversion rate continued to be challenged YOY in FY 2H21, albeit slightly improving from a negative 2.6% in FY 1H21 to a negative 1.8%. Although not a enormous surprise, this trend would appear to be with us for an extended period in Hong Kong - especially given the continued border closures amid the COVID-19 disruption; and</p><p><em><strong>*Poor Capital Management Becoming A Big Problem: </strong></em>Link management also appears hellbent on destroying shareholder value with deals that make little financial sense. Link recently announced the acquisition of Happy Valley Shopping Mall in Guangzhou where the current annualized NPI yield barely covering the project’s cost of funding. In order to improve occupancy, it would appear that Link would likely need to offering significant tenant enticements, and investment massively in asset enhancement. Bizarrely instead of weighing buybacks return versus new investment ROI, management views share buybacks as a mechanism to defend shares against short-selling.</p>

*Better, But Weak Metrics: Link REIT (823.HK) [Link REIT] reported a positive FY 2H21 bottom-line result of HKD 5.3 bn, increasing HKD 9.4 bn over the HKD 4.1 bn in losses posted in FY 1H21. However, when we exclude Link’s non-cash FV marks of HKD 2.0 bn, operating performance cam in at just HKD 3.3 bn – improving just HKD 143 mn (4.5%) HOH. The positive HOH operating performance was driven by an increase in revenues from mainland China and overseas related property;  *Worries Remain In Hong Kong: Hong Kong retail portfolio's rental reversion rate continued to be challenged YOY in FY 2H21, albeit slightly improving from a negative 2.6% in FY 1H21 to a negative 1.8%. Although not a enormous surprise, this trend would appear to be with us for an extended period in Hong Kong - especially given the continued border closures amid the COVID-19 disruption; and*Poor Capital Management Becoming A Big Problem: Link management also appears hellbent on destroying shareholder value with deals that make little financial sense. Link recently announced the acquisition of Happy Valley Shopping Mall in Guangzhou where the current annualized NPI yield barely covering the project’s cost of funding. In order to improve occupancy, it would appear that Link would likely need to offering significant tenant enticements, and investment massively in asset enhancement. Bizarrely instead of weighing buybacks return versus new investment ROI, management views share buybacks as a mechanism to defend shares against short-selling.

Link REIT – Hong Kong “Stabilizing”

<p><strong><em>*Desperado:</em></strong> The bulk of the Link REIT (823.HK) [Link] franchise continues to contract: negative rental reversion rates persist in Hong Kong; declining tenant sales; and another round of negative property revaluation due to lower rents and/or higher cap rates. That being said, Link management also appears hellbent on destroying shareholder value with  deals that make little financial sense; and </p><p><strong><em>*Throwing Good Money After Bad Again: </em></strong>Link recently announced the acquisition of Happy Valley Shopping Mall in Guangzhou for CNY 3.2 bn. According to management, current annualized NPI yield of 3.3% - barely covering the project’s cost of funding. Management would have investors believe that the opportunity for Link is the shopping mall’s 70% occupancy and that 68% of leases are expiring between now and 2023. In order to improve occupancy, it would appear that Link would likely need to offering significant tenant enticements, and investment massively in asset enhancement.</p>

*Desperado: The bulk of the Link REIT (823.HK) [Link] franchise continues to contract: negative rental reversion rates persist in Hong Kong; declining tenant sales; and another round of negative property revaluation due to lower rents and/or higher cap rates. That being said, Link management also appears hellbent on destroying shareholder value with  deals that make little financial sense; and *Throwing Good Money After Bad Again: Link recently announced the acquisition of Happy Valley Shopping Mall in Guangzhou for CNY 3.2 bn. According to management, current annualized NPI yield of 3.3% - barely covering the project’s cost of funding. Management would have investors believe that the opportunity for Link is the shopping mall’s 70% occupancy and that 68% of leases are expiring between now and 2023. In order to improve occupancy, it would appear that Link would likely need to offering significant tenant enticements, and investment massively in asset enhancement.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>SF Real Estate Investment Trust (SFREIT), a logistics-focused REIT, raised around US$333m in its Hong Kong IPO. SF REIT is sponsored by SF Holdings, listed in Shenzhen.</p></div><div><p>We have looked at the background of the deal in our previous notes,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-reit-pre-ipo-one-trick-pony-who-s-not-doing-the-trick" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SF REIT Pre-IPO -One trick pony, who’s not doing the trick</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-reit-ipo-don-t-see-a-clear-reason-to-buy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SF REIT IPO - Don’t See a Clear Reason to Buy</a>.</p></div><div><p>In this note, we’ll talk about the trading dyanmics.</p></div>

SF Real Estate Investment Trust (SFREIT), a logistics-focused REIT, raised around US$333m in its Hong Kong IPO. SF REIT is sponsored by SF Holdings, listed in Shenzhen.We have looked at the background of the deal in our previous notes, SF REIT Pre-IPO -One trick pony, who’s not doing the trick and SF REIT IPO - Don’t See a Clear Reason to Buy.In this note, we’ll talk about the trading dyanmics.

Hong Kong

Link REIT is a real estate investment trust in Hong Kong. The Trust owns and operates shopping centers, parking space facilities and real estate retail space.

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Link REIT (823 HK)

Link REIT – Looking For Handouts

LINK REIT: The Hong Kong's rental reversion rate remained challenged in FY 1H22 at positive single digits. Mainland expansion likely will be...

Thomas J. Monaco

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (5Jul21) - AIT Builds Its First DC in Navi Mumbai

AIT builds its first DC in Navi Mumbai; ART in dispute on Park Hotel CQ asset; Link REIT looks into SG office market; LMRT closes 16 malls for...

SCCM Asia Research

Link REIT – Hong Kong “Stabilizing”

LINK REIT: Link operating results only improved 4.5% HOH, driven by mainland China and overseas. Hong Kong retail portfolio remains a challenge, as...

Thomas J. Monaco

Link REIT – Purchase or Perish

LINK REIT: The Link franchise continues to contract, and management appears hellbent on destroying shareholder value by chasing bad deals - the...

Thomas J. Monaco

SF REIT IPO Trading - Tepid Demand

SF Real Estate Investment Trust (SFREIT), a logistics-focused REIT, raised around US$333m in its Hong Kong IPO. SF REIT is sponsored by SF...

Sumeet Singh

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