ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Ace Hardware Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> released 1H2021 last week with sales down by -7.0% YoY and operating profits by -27.6% YoY, while net profit fell by -21.3% YoY. Obviously, 1Q2020 represented partial a high-base given that the pandemic had not yet impacted Indonesia in a big way.</p>
<p>The company saw sales in Jakarta affected most by the pandemic, with Java ex-Jakarta increased its share of sales and stores outside Java also increasing share of the total.</p>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> continued to expand its stores in 1H2021 despite the pandemic.  The fact that  a large portion of stores are in malls has meant that it has been heavily impacted by the recent Emergency PPKM measures, which is not yet reflected in these numbers. </section>
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<section class="figure">The most recent round of Emergency PPKM measures has seen 155 stores closed in July, which remain closed in August. The company has managed to shift some of its sales online but this is still small.</section>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> continued to grow its members under its Ace Reward scheme, with member sales now accounting for 73.1% of total sales in 1H2021. Members spend significantly more than the average ticket size.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> recently released predictably weak SSSG numbers for July, which saw a -50.7% decline YoY reflecting the imposition of Emergency PPKM mobility restrictions versus a more open environment last year. We would expect a gradual recovery in September, as PPKM measures are relaxed further. </p>
<p>The company trades on 30.1x FY21E PER and 23.0x FY22E PER, with forecast EPS growth of +13.7% and +30.7% for FY21E and FY22E respectively, making it look attractive versus its 5-year average forward PER of 25.0x </p>
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Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) released 1H2021 last week with sales down by -7.0% YoY and operating profits by -27.6% YoY, while net profit fell by -21.3% YoY. Obviously, 1Q2020 represented partial a high-base given that the pandemic had not yet impacted Indonesia in a big way.
The company saw sales in Jakarta affected most by the pandemic, with Java ex-Jakarta increased its share of sales and stores outside Java also increasing share of the total.

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) continued to expand its stores in 1H2021 despite the pandemic.  The fact that  a large portion of stores are in malls has meant that it has been heavily impacted by the recent Emergency PPKM measures, which is not yet reflected in these numbers. 




The most recent round of Emergency PPKM measures has seen 155 stores closed in July, which remain closed in August. The company has managed to shift some of its sales online but this is still small.


Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) continued to grow its members under its Ace Reward scheme, with member sales now accounting for 73.1% of total sales in 1H2021. Members spend significantly more than the average ticket size.

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) recently released predictably weak SSSG numbers for July, which saw a -50.7% decline YoY reflecting the imposition of Emergency PPKM mobility restrictions versus a more open environment last year. We would expect a gradual recovery in September, as PPKM measures are relaxed further. 
The company trades on 30.1x FY21E PER and 23.0x FY22E PER, with forecast EPS growth of +13.7% and +30.7% for FY21E and FY22E respectively, making it look attractive versus its 5-year average forward PER of 25.0x 


Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Summer Lull

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Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).</p>

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> announced yet another record set of quarterly results last night, with +159% growth in total GAAP revenues to US$2,280.6m. This marks the 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth in revenues, which deserves a standing ovation</p>
<p>The company's digital entertainment business continued to thrive, with quarterly active users (QAU) increasing by +45% YoY and importantly quarterly paying users increasing +85% YoY in 2Q2021, and generating positive EBITDA of US$740.9m.</p>
<p>The quarterly paying users represented a higher portion of users in 2Q2021 and Adjusted EBITDA as a portion of bookings improved to 62.8% for 2Q2021 versus 60.9% in 2Q2020.</p>
<p>Garena's self-developed global hit game <em>Free Fire </em>reached over 1bn downloads on Google Play, with the game ranking number three globally by average monthly users for mobile games in 2Q2021, according to App Annie, with record peak daily users.</p>
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<p>The company's e-commerce business continued to see rapid growth with gross orders up by +127% YoY to 1.4bn orders and gross merchandise value up by +87.5% YoY to US$15bn whilst the adjusted EBITDA loss per order decreased by -19.6% YoY.</p>
<p>Shopee was the second most downloaded app on Google Play and the second most downloaded app across Google Play and iOS app stores combined forte shopping category globally in 2Q2021, according to App Annie.</p>
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<p>In Brazil, where Shopee was launched in late 2019, it ranked first in the shopping category by downloads, and total time spent in-app, as well as ranking second in terms of monthly active users (MAU) for 2Q2021.</p>
<p> In Brazil, it has already made good progress with more monthly active users than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> and stands in the number two position after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercadolibre-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27954:1" rel="noopener">MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US)</a> in terms of active users.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> also continued to make significant progress in digital financial services through the adoption of SeaMoney and ShopeePay, with US$4.1bn in total payment volume in its mobile wallet in 2Q2021, up nearly +150% YoY. It also saw an increase of +109% in quarterly paying users in 2Q2021. </p>
<p>The company continues to grow its ShopeeFood business in Indonesia and Vietnam and has seen a very strong performance and positive reception from users as well as driver communities in both markets in 2Q2021, with a strong focus on the quality of services to users.</p>
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<p>The company booked an overall gross profit increase of +364% YoY. From a non-GAAP EBITDA perspective, the company booked an EBITDA loss of (US$24.1m) versus an EBITDA profit of US$7.7m.</p>
<p>From a segmental point of view, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> booked a positive EBITDA of US$740.9m for its digital entertainment segment in 2Q2021 versus US436.2m last year in the same period, an increase of +69.8% YoY. </p>
<p>The e-commerce segment booked an EBITDA loss of (US$579.8m) in 2Q2021 versus a loss of (US$313.7m) last year, an increase in loss of +84.8% YoY.</p>
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<section class="figure">These look like yet another blow away set of numbers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, despite the company booking a marginally higher loss. It is all too easy to take a negative view on a high-growth company such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> but most negative arguments from analysts tinker with the quarterly minutiae and are somehow blind to the longer-term positive story and the company's growth model.</section>
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<section class="figure">Management has also raised its full-year guidance, which is now well above analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively to the results breaking out above US$300 to close at a new record close. We remain positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, which now trades on 10.5x FY22E EV/Sales and 8x FY23E EV/sales, which may look rich but is justified by superior growth to its peers, with e-commerce and digital finance fuelled by the company's gaming business. </section>
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Sea Ltd (SE US) announced yet another record set of quarterly results last night, with +159% growth in total GAAP revenues to US$2,280.6m. This marks the 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth in revenues, which deserves a standing ovation
The company's digital entertainment business continued to thrive, with quarterly active users (QAU) increasing by +45% YoY and importantly quarterly paying users increasing +85% YoY in 2Q2021, and generating positive EBITDA of US$740.9m.
The quarterly paying users represented a higher portion of users in 2Q2021 and Adjusted EBITDA as a portion of bookings improved to 62.8% for 2Q2021 versus 60.9% in 2Q2020.
Garena's self-developed global hit game Free Fire reached over 1bn downloads on Google Play, with the game ranking number three globally by average monthly users for mobile games in 2Q2021, according to App Annie, with record peak daily users.

The company's e-commerce business continued to see rapid growth with gross orders up by +127% YoY to 1.4bn orders and gross merchandise value up by +87.5% YoY to US$15bn whilst the adjusted EBITDA loss per order decreased by -19.6% YoY.
Shopee was the second most downloaded app on Google Play and the second most downloaded app across Google Play and iOS app stores combined forte shopping category globally in 2Q2021, according to App Annie.

In Brazil, where Shopee was launched in late 2019, it ranked first in the shopping category by downloads, and total time spent in-app, as well as ranking second in terms of monthly active users (MAU) for 2Q2021.
 In Brazil, it has already made good progress with more monthly active users than Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Alibaba Group (BABA US) and stands in the number two position after MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US) in terms of active users.
Sea Ltd (SE US) also continued to make significant progress in digital financial services through the adoption of SeaMoney and ShopeePay, with US$4.1bn in total payment volume in its mobile wallet in 2Q2021, up nearly +150% YoY. It also saw an increase of +109% in quarterly paying users in 2Q2021. 
The company continues to grow its ShopeeFood business in Indonesia and Vietnam and has seen a very strong performance and positive reception from users as well as driver communities in both markets in 2Q2021, with a strong focus on the quality of services to users.


The company booked an overall gross profit increase of +364% YoY. From a non-GAAP EBITDA perspective, the company booked an EBITDA loss of (US$24.1m) versus an EBITDA profit of US$7.7m.
From a segmental point of view, Sea Ltd (SE US) booked a positive EBITDA of US$740.9m for its digital entertainment segment in 2Q2021 versus US436.2m last year in the same period, an increase of +69.8% YoY. 
The e-commerce segment booked an EBITDA loss of (US$579.8m) in 2Q2021 versus a loss of (US$313.7m) last year, an increase in loss of +84.8% YoY.


These look like yet another blow away set of numbers for Sea Ltd (SE US), despite the company booking a marginally higher loss. It is all too easy to take a negative view on a high-growth company such as Sea Ltd (SE US) but most negative arguments from analysts tinker with the quarterly minutiae and are somehow blind to the longer-term positive story and the company's growth model.




Management has also raised its full-year guidance, which is now well above analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively to the results breaking out above US$300 to close at a new record close. We remain positive on Sea Ltd (SE US), which now trades on 10.5x FY22E EV/Sales and 8x FY23E EV/sales, which may look rich but is justified by superior growth to its peers, with e-commerce and digital finance fuelled by the company's gaming business. 














IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p>We wrote in May that consensus estimates for Sea were 15% too light (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sea-limited-results-scope-for-15-upgrades" target="_blank" rel="noopener">note</a>). Indeed, Sea management yesterday upgraded its own guidance which could see consensus get closer to our c9bn USD estimate in 2021 (currently 8.5bn post results from 7.8bn in May). Bigger picture, there continue to be multiple reasons for long-term excitement in this unique multi-pillared growth story.</p>

We wrote in May that consensus estimates for Sea were 15% too light (note). Indeed, Sea management yesterday upgraded its own guidance which could see consensus get closer to our c9bn USD estimate in 2021 (currently 8.5bn post results from 7.8bn in May). Bigger picture, there continue to be multiple reasons for long-term excitement in this unique multi-pillared growth story.

Sea Limited 2Q21 Results – Continuing to Drive New Growth Avenues

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Singapore-based Internet company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, released its 2Q21 results yesterday, which saw <a target="_blank">revenue increase by 159% YoY and 29% QoQ to $2,280.5m </a>(consensus $2,017.7m). The company’s operating loss narrowed 10.4% YoY and 4.1% QoQ to $334.0m, compared to the consensus operating loss estimate of $331.3m (an OPM of -14.6% compared to OPMs of -42.3%, -25.2%, -22.8% and -19.8% in 2Q20, 3Q20, 4Q20, and 1Q21 respectively).</li>
<li>Accelerated revenue growth in 2Q20 was mainly driven by Sea’s gaming business as the company invested most of the gaming profits in the e-commerce business to accelerate e-commerce growth. However, Free Fire could soon run out of room to grow, resulting in a rapid deceleration of Sea’s overall growth prospects over the next few years.</li>
</ul>


Singapore-based Internet company, Sea Ltd (SE US), released its 2Q21 results yesterday, which saw revenue increase by 159% YoY and 29% QoQ to $2,280.5m (consensus $2,017.7m). The company’s operating loss narrowed 10.4% YoY and 4.1% QoQ to $334.0m, compared to the consensus operating loss estimate of $331.3m (an OPM of -14.6% compared to OPMs of -42.3%, -25.2%, -22.8% and -19.8% in 2Q20, 3Q20, 4Q20, and 1Q21 respectively).
Accelerated revenue growth in 2Q20 was mainly driven by Sea’s gaming business as the company invested most of the gaming profits in the e-commerce business to accelerate e-commerce growth. However, Free Fire could soon run out of room to grow, resulting in a rapid deceleration of Sea’s overall growth prospects over the next few years.


Free Fire Firing on All Cylinders But Shopee Is Deprived of Marginal Profitability Gains

Singapore

Sea Limited offers information technology services. The Company provides online personal computer and mobile digital content, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Sea serves customers worldwide.

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Sea (SE US)

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Summer Lull

Ace Hardware has seen sales hard hit by recent mobility measures and mall closures in Indonesia but we expect a strong recovery from September and...

Angus Mackintosh

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #45

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming. The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory...

Granite Bay Capital

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Standing Ovation

Sea Ltd released another record quarterly result affirming its leading position in gaming and e-commerce in SE Asia, with some positive signals...

Angus Mackintosh

Sea Limited 2Q21 Results – Continuing to Drive New Growth Avenues

We wrote in May that consensus estimates for Sea were 15% too light (note). Indeed, Sea management yesterday upgraded its own guidance which could...

Rickin Thakrar

Free Fire Firing on All Cylinders But Shopee Is Deprived of Marginal Profitability Gains

Sea’s gaming business plays a vital role in resource allocation for its unprofitable businesses. However, Free Fire could soon run out of room to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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