Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).</li>
<li>We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.</li>
<li>We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.</li>
</ul>


Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.


Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paint-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7387:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP)</a> is down nearly 25% in a week after the large non-dilutive Offering which nevertheless increases Foreign Real World Float by 70+%.</li>
<li>The ratio of Forward PERe of Nippon Paint vs Peers is as low as it has been in many years, but EV/ForwardEBITDA remains high vs peers.</li>
<li>Investors who buy this deal or the Pricing Dip will be getting long next to ¥140-150bn of their closest friends who didn't own as much NPH one week ago.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP) is down nearly 25% in a week after the large non-dilutive Offering which nevertheless increases Foreign Real World Float by 70+%.
The ratio of Forward PERe of Nippon Paint vs Peers is as low as it has been in many years, but EV/ForwardEBITDA remains high vs peers.
Investors who buy this deal or the Pricing Dip will be getting long next to ¥140-150bn of their closest friends who didn't own as much NPH one week ago.


Nippon Paint (4612) Secondary Pricing Approaches - Cheaper But...

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)</a> will raise up to $405 million at an IPO range of IDR780-930. Selling shareholders will also raise up to $364 million through a private placement. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/avia-avian-ipo-initiation-painting-by-numbers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61202" rel="noopener">Avia Avian IPO Initiation: Painting by Numbers</a>, we noted that Avia is delivering strong growth, rising margins and strong cash generation. We concluded that Avia is worth a look.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that Avia is fully priced at the IPO price range. Consequently, we would remain on the sidelines seeking a lower entry point. </li>
</ul>



PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) will raise up to $405 million at an IPO range of IDR780-930. Selling shareholders will also raise up to $364 million through a private placement. 
In Avia Avian IPO Initiation: Painting by Numbers, we noted that Avia is delivering strong growth, rising margins and strong cash generation. We concluded that Avia is worth a look.
Our valuation analysis suggests that Avia is fully priced at the IPO price range. Consequently, we would remain on the sidelines seeking a lower entry point. 


Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>This year's narrative from US treasuries suggests a short-lived inflation/overheating scare in Q1, which coincided with Winter Storm Uri and the Texas power crisis, along with an initial phase of tapering talk from regional Fed presidents which subsequently faded; since the March peak, 10yr yields are down -45bps or a whopping -26%, representing the view that inflationary pressures have been entirely transitory</li>
<li>The picture from 5yr TIPS breakevens and the 5yr5yr has been more closely attuned to commodities:  In the past 6 months, 5yr TIPS breakevens and 5yr5yr have been 74% and 70% correlated with copper prices vs. the 10yr yield's 46%, though correlations with oil have been low; breakevens peaked with copper in May and bottomed in June-July</li>
<li>While 10yr yields continued to grind lower in July, our text mining is picking up a new surge in reports of supply constraints, which have been strongly correlated with breakevens and reflect corporate commentary in the current earnings season</li>
<li>The inflation narrative from treasuries appears to be asynchronous with the Q2 earnings season narrative from cyclical corporates, who are uniformly reporting worsening raw materials inflation expected in Q3 and lingering supply constraints</li>
<li>Nonetheless, our text mining acknowledges that talk of tightening financial conditions last spiked in March and has not resurfaced since, and expectations of a massive US infrastructure package have faded</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


This year's narrative from US treasuries suggests a short-lived inflation/overheating scare in Q1, which coincided with Winter Storm Uri and the Texas power crisis, along with an initial phase of tapering talk from regional Fed presidents which subsequently faded; since the March peak, 10yr yields are down -45bps or a whopping -26%, representing the view that inflationary pressures have been entirely transitory
The picture from 5yr TIPS breakevens and the 5yr5yr has been more closely attuned to commodities:  In the past 6 months, 5yr TIPS breakevens and 5yr5yr have been 74% and 70% correlated with copper prices vs. the 10yr yield's 46%, though correlations with oil have been low; breakevens peaked with copper in May and bottomed in June-July
While 10yr yields continued to grind lower in July, our text mining is picking up a new surge in reports of supply constraints, which have been strongly correlated with breakevens and reflect corporate commentary in the current earnings season
The inflation narrative from treasuries appears to be asynchronous with the Q2 earnings season narrative from cyclical corporates, who are uniformly reporting worsening raw materials inflation expected in Q3 and lingering supply constraints
Nonetheless, our text mining acknowledges that talk of tightening financial conditions last spiked in March and has not resurfaced since, and expectations of a massive US infrastructure package have faded
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Asynchronous Inflation Narratives

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19508" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19508:1">DuluxGroup Ltd (DLX AU)</a> is Australia’s largest player in the decorative paint market, with well-known brands Dulux in paints and Selleys in adhesives. On 17 April, DuluxGroup announced a recommended scheme of arrangement from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7387" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7387:1">Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP)</a> for A$9.80 cash per share. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Overall, we believe that Nippon Paint’s bid is attractive with limited chance of a superior proposal. </p></div>

DuluxGroup Ltd (DLX AU) is Australia’s largest player in the decorative paint market, with well-known brands Dulux in paints and Selleys in adhesives. On 17 April, DuluxGroup announced a recommended scheme of arrangement from Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP) for A$9.80 cash per share. Overall, we believe that Nippon Paint’s bid is attractive with limited chance of a superior proposal. 

DuluxGroup’s Attractive Bid from Nippon Paint

United States

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. manufactures, markets and distributes coatings systems. The Company offers products and services which includes paint, color matching tools, application technologies, and customer  training and business management systems. Axalta Coating Systems serves automotive, transportation,  general industrial, and architectural and decorative sectors.

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Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA US)

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

Our targets for this bear rally have been hit, which were the 200-day MAs on $IWM and $SPX (within 0.5%). Now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on...

Vermilion Research

Nippon Paint (4612) Secondary Pricing Approaches - Cheaper But...

The Nippon Paint (4612) Secondary likely prices 17 January after the stock has fallen 24% in a week since the announcement. It's cheaper. It's not...

Travis Lundy

Avia Avian IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that Avia is fully priced at the IPO price range. Consequently, we would remain on the sidelines seeking a lower...

Arun George

TMI Snapshot: Asynchronous Inflation Narratives

While the bond market continues to dismiss inflationary pressures, our text mining picked up a recent spike in mentions of supply constraints as...

Elan Gore

DuluxGroup’s Attractive Bid from Nippon Paint

DuluxGroup Ltd (DLX AU) is Australia’s largest player in the decorative paint market, with well-known brands Dulux in paints and Selleys in...

Arun George

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