ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)</a> is Indonesia's largest paint manufacturer with a strong track record, selling a wide range of architectural solutions products, with a countrywide distribution network. </li>
<li>The company continues to add to its product portfolio by adding more affordable products to cater for consumers trading down due to inflationary pressures depressing disposable incomes. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">Avia Avian</a> continues to add to its distribution network and has introduced express delivery that allows retailers to take more products but less inventory. Valuations are attractive with supportive dividends.</li>
</ul>



Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) is Indonesia's largest paint manufacturer with a strong track record, selling a wide range of architectural solutions products, with a countrywide distribution network. 
The company continues to add to its product portfolio by adding more affordable products to cater for consumers trading down due to inflationary pressures depressing disposable incomes. 

Avia Avian continues to add to its distribution network and has introduced express delivery that allows retailers to take more products but less inventory. Valuations are attractive with supportive dividends.


PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) - A More Glossy Future

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian</a> is Indonesia's leading integrated paint manufacturing company with around 20% market share. It is undergoing a strong recovery in margins as raw material inputs have stabilised. </li>
<li>The company continues to expand both its distribution centres and the range of products it offers, with a strong emphasis on below-the-line marketing, reaching 54,000 retail outlets.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)</a> is an interesting proxy for the strong recovery in Indonesia's economy and property market, with the added tailwind of lower input costs. Valuations are attractive. </li>
</ul>



PT Avia Avian is Indonesia's leading integrated paint manufacturing company with around 20% market share. It is undergoing a strong recovery in margins as raw material inputs have stabilised. 
The company continues to expand both its distribution centres and the range of products it offers, with a strong emphasis on below-the-line marketing, reaching 54,000 retail outlets.

PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) is an interesting proxy for the strong recovery in Indonesia's economy and property market, with the added tailwind of lower input costs. Valuations are attractive. 


PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) - Painting by Numbers

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nusantara-sejahtera-raya" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39908:1" rel="noopener">Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ)</a> aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.</li>
<li>Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.
Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO - The Negatives - Private Placement, Not a Primary Raising

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian market has seen a sharp sell-off with a confluence of concerns centred around the execution and implementation of government policy but the fall was mainly driven by retail.</li>
<li>The sell-off does not reflect an underlying deterioration of growth prospects for the economy or indeed earnings, although 4Q2024 results saw a slower performance for some sectors. </li>
<li>The government has already taken note and has determined to take action to reassure investors through policy measures. Valuations have already reached a historically attractive level.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian market has seen a sharp sell-off with a confluence of concerns centred around the execution and implementation of government policy but the fall was mainly driven by retail.
The sell-off does not reflect an underlying deterioration of growth prospects for the economy or indeed earnings, although 4Q2024 results saw a slower performance for some sectors. 
The government has already taken note and has determined to take action to reassure investors through policy measures. Valuations have already reached a historically attractive level.


CrossASEAN Strategy - Indonesia's Delicate Balance

Indonesia

PT Avia Avian operates as an integrated paint company. The Company offers cement additive, spray paint, wood and metal coating, water proofing, wall paints, thinner, and other paint products. Avia Avian serves customers in Indonesia.

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PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)