HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  </li>
<li>Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd-79e0c5b5-ad55-42ed-b8d2-a2173defd0ea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (1179 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> are well positioned.</li>
<li>These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. </li>
</ul>


With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  
Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK), H World Group (1179 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) are well positioned.
These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. 


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>China’s top state assets administration imposed minimum prices for tickets on seven state-owned airlines, slamming the door on ultra-low-cost promotions launched as travel plunged during the pandemic</li><li>The commission put a floor under prices to preserve and increase the value of state-owned assets and to pare operating losses, a senior industry insider said.</li><li>The move is a way for SASAC to exercise its rights as a majority shareholder of the state-owned airlines.</li></ul>

China’s top state assets administration imposed minimum prices for tickets on seven state-owned airlines, slamming the door on ultra-low-cost promotions launched as travel plunged during the pandemicThe commission put a floor under prices to preserve and increase the value of state-owned assets and to pare operating losses, a senior industry insider said.The move is a way for SASAC to exercise its rights as a majority shareholder of the state-owned airlines.

China Slams the Door on ‘1 Yuan Airfares’ Spawned by the Pandemic

<ul><li>China’s civil aviation industry plunged deeper into the red in 2022 as Covid restrictions effectively shut down international travel</li><li>However, there are hopes things may turn around quickly after the abandonment of the “zero-Covid” strategy last month</li><li>The country’s airline companies posted a combined loss of 216 billion yuan ($31.8 billion) last year, widening from 84.3 billion yuan in 2021 and 94.7 billion in 2020</li></ul>

China’s civil aviation industry plunged deeper into the red in 2022 as Covid restrictions effectively shut down international travelHowever, there are hopes things may turn around quickly after the abandonment of the “zero-Covid” strategy last monthThe country’s airline companies posted a combined loss of 216 billion yuan ($31.8 billion) last year, widening from 84.3 billion yuan in 2021 and 94.7 billion in 2020

Losses Blow Out at China’s Airlines as Passengers Dip to 12-Year Low

<ul>
<li>The just finished "Year of the Rabbit" Chinese New Year has witnessed strong revival in travel appetite. Total domestic travelers increased 23.1% YoY, returning to 88.6% of 2019 level.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd-79e0c5b5-ad55-42ed-b8d2-a2173defd0ea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">Huazhu Group (1179 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-film-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29943:1" rel="noopener">China Film Co (600977 CH)</a> are some of the beneficiaries.</li>
<li>As we passed peak of infections and overseas PCR and visa constraints are further removed, the trend of improvement in travel demand will sustain into the National Day holidays.  </li>
</ul>


The just finished "Year of the Rabbit" Chinese New Year has witnessed strong revival in travel appetite. Total domestic travelers increased 23.1% YoY, returning to 88.6% of 2019 level.

Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), Huazhu Group (1179 HK), Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) and China Film Co (600977 CH) are some of the beneficiaries.
As we passed peak of infections and overseas PCR and visa constraints are further removed, the trend of improvement in travel demand will sustain into the National Day holidays.  


Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 106.3% as of Jan 20th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt week on week, led by financials, consumer staples, energy and offset by health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua, CSSC Offshore, Huaxin Cement, China Oilfield, CICC, China Life.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 106.3% as of Jan 20th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt week on week, led by financials, consumer staples, energy and offset by health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua, CSSC Offshore, Huaxin Cement, China Oilfield, CICC, China Life.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 20th): Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua

China

Air China Limited provides passenger, cargo, and airline-related services in China.  The Company is primarily based in Beijing and a major hub for domestic and international air transportation.  Air China's airline-related services include aircraft maintenance, repair, overhaul service, ground services, and in-flight catering services.

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Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

We are only in early stage of China's tourism and hospitality recovery, after its re-opening of borders in Jan. We identify Tongcheng, H World,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Slams the Door on ‘1 Yuan Airfares’ Spawned by the Pandemic

China’s top state assets administration imposed minimum prices for tickets on seven state-owned airlines, slamming the door on ultra-low-cost...

Caixin Global

Losses Blow Out at China’s Airlines as Passengers Dip to 12-Year Low

China’s civil aviation industry plunged deeper into the red in 2022 as Covid restrictions effectively shut down international travel

Caixin Global

Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications

Total domestic travelers in China was up 23.1% in CNY. Tongcheng-Elong, Trip.com, Huazhu Group, Fosun Tourism, China Southern Airlines and China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 20th): Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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