Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Compared to depressed traffic from last year, outbound travel in July was up dramatically; strong M/M growth versus June suggests the outbound recovery still has legs </li>
<li>Does China's relaxation of group travel to Japan and Korea matter? We offer context and conclude the change is helpful, but not a "game-changer" for overall travel demand</li>
<li>We also review July domestic traffic and preview Trip.com's Q2 results (out Sept 4th)</li>
</ul>


Compared to depressed traffic from last year, outbound travel in July was up dramatically; strong M/M growth versus June suggests the outbound recovery still has legs 
Does China's relaxation of group travel to Japan and Korea matter? We offer context and conclude the change is helpful, but not a "game-changer" for overall travel demand
We also review July domestic traffic and preview Trip.com's Q2 results (out Sept 4th)


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | July Outbound Firm | Group Tour Impact | Trip.com Q2 (August 2023)

<ul>
<li>We see decidedly mixed signals in Chinese outbound tourism numbers from June</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the modest pace of the recovery in domestic air traffic continued last month</li>
<li>What to look for in Q2/H1 earnings results over the next several weeks</li>
</ul>


We see decidedly mixed signals in Chinese outbound tourism numbers from June
Meanwhile, the modest pace of the recovery in domestic air traffic continued last month
What to look for in Q2/H1 earnings results over the next several weeks


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The underperformance of Chinese airlines looks unjustified to us, especially in view of the significant narrow-down in losses in 2Q23, particularly for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>While domestic passenger capacity has fully recovered, international capacity is still more than 50% below Jun 2019. We anticipate its recovery will drive profitability over the next 12 months.</li>
<li>We prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a> given its excellent leverage to international routes and exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>. Its FY24F ROE of 45% is impressive too. </li>
</ul>


The underperformance of Chinese airlines looks unjustified to us, especially in view of the significant narrow-down in losses in 2Q23, particularly for Air China Ltd (753 HK). 
While domestic passenger capacity has fully recovered, international capacity is still more than 50% below Jun 2019. We anticipate its recovery will drive profitability over the next 12 months.
We prefer Air China Ltd (753 HK) given its excellent leverage to international routes and exposure to Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK). Its FY24F ROE of 45% is impressive too. 


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.2% as of Jul 21st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.8ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, communication services, information technology and offset by real estate, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Vanke, New China Life, BYD, CMOC, Asymchem, Huaneng, China Longyuan.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.2% as of Jul 21st.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.8ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, communication services, information technology and offset by real estate, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Vanke, New China Life, BYD, CMOC, Asymchem, Huaneng, China Longyuan.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 21st): China Vanke, New China Life, BYD, CMOC, Asymchem, Huaneng

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 117.2% as of Jul 14th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -3.0ppt week on week, led by consumer discretionary, consumer staples, utilities and offset by real estate, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BankComm, ICBC, ABC, CCB, Remegen.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 117.2% as of Jul 14th.
The average A-H premium changed by -3.0ppt week on week, led by consumer discretionary, consumer staples, utilities and offset by real estate, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BankComm, ICBC, ABC, CCB, Remegen.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 14th): 52 Week High A-H for Banks

China

Air China Limited provides passenger, cargo, and airline-related services in China.  The Company is primarily based in Beijing and a major hub for domestic and international air transportation.  Air China's airline-related services include aircraft maintenance, repair, overhaul service, ground services, and in-flight catering services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | July Outbound Firm | Group Tour Impact | Trip.com Q2 (August 2023)

The recovery in outbound Chinese tourism remained strong in July. In this insight we also look at relaxation of Chinese group travel to Japan and...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)

We see mixed signals in June outbound travel activity, and the recovery in domestic activity continued at its modest pace. For value investors,...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese Airlines: Taking off Again

The underperformance of Chinese airlines is unjustified. Recovery of international routes over the next 12 months and exposure to Cathay Pacific...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 21st): China Vanke, New China Life, BYD, CMOC, Asymchem, Huaneng

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Vanke, New China Life, BYD, CMOC, Asymchem, Huaneng,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 14th): 52 Week High A-H for Banks

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for BankComm, ICBC, ABC, CCB, Remegen.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)