Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We have previously commented on Valorant’s relatively unique position in esports due to its high degree of regional parity and that is being further underscored during its ongoing Masters tournament. </li>
<li>In particular, Japan, a region not known for any particular prowess in FPS titles secured its first top eight position generating significant buzz on twitter in doing so. </li>
<li>The implications look positive here for both Valorant overall and for Japan’s esports ambitions where it is probably now time to truly familiarise yourself with the potential plays.</li>
</ul>


We have previously commented on Valorant’s relatively unique position in esports due to its high degree of regional parity and that is being further underscored during its ongoing Masters tournament. 
In particular, Japan, a region not known for any particular prowess in FPS titles secured its first top eight position generating significant buzz on twitter in doing so. 
The implications look positive here for both Valorant overall and for Japan’s esports ambitions where it is probably now time to truly familiarise yourself with the potential plays.


Valorant’s Regional Parity and Japan’s Emerging Esports Scene

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday 14 February, Dentsu announced bte profits, and guidance for 2022 which appears in-line to slightly strong in terms of revenue, slightly weak/conservative in terms of IFRS/GAAP OP.</li>
<li>The company also announced what appears to be a BIG buyback. </li>
<li>Looks are deceiving, but somehow not, but there are catches in both directions. If you have a flow axe, it is worth knowing the flow details.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday 14 February, Dentsu announced bte profits, and guidance for 2022 which appears in-line to slightly strong in terms of revenue, slightly weak/conservative in terms of IFRS/GAAP OP.
The company also announced what appears to be a BIG buyback. 
Looks are deceiving, but somehow not, but there are catches in both directions. If you have a flow axe, it is worth knowing the flow details.


Dentsu BIG Buyback - Both Larger and Smaller Than It Appears

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent</a> reported 1QFY09/2022 results on Wednesday. Revenue for the quarter increased 30.6% YoY to JPY171.1bn (vs consensus revenue of JPY173.4bn) while OP increased 11.6% YoY to JPY19.8bn (vs consensus JPY24.5bn).</li>
<li>Games business reported strong growth in revenue, however, OPM continues to decline with increased advertising cost. Some of the older titles which performed strong have started to decline.</li>
<li>Internet advertising and Media continue to grow, with resurgence of Covid-19 cases, it seems internet ad business will take longer to bounce back to pre-Covid levels.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent reported 1QFY09/2022 results on Wednesday. Revenue for the quarter increased 30.6% YoY to JPY171.1bn (vs consensus revenue of JPY173.4bn) while OP increased 11.6% YoY to JPY19.8bn (vs consensus JPY24.5bn).
Games business reported strong growth in revenue, however, OPM continues to decline with increased advertising cost. Some of the older titles which performed strong have started to decline.
Internet advertising and Media continue to grow, with resurgence of Covid-19 cases, it seems internet ad business will take longer to bounce back to pre-Covid levels.


CyberAgent: Earnings Miss Consensus and No Guidance; Games Growth Is Worrying

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Convenience store (CVS) retailing remains the most dynamic and innovative physical store sector. It is now 50 years since the first Seven Eleven opened and the sector wide drop in sales in 2020 was the first in its history.Whereas department stores also took a battering last year and are likely to struggle to recover, convenience stores should bounce back quickly, including implementing lessons learned in last year’s crisis.That does not mean the format faces no problems, with labour shortages, overly strict operating procedures and an ageing population of store owners (many are now reaching retirement age with no succession in place) all issues that need solutions, but its willingness and ability to adopt new technologies and adapt to the market will continue to keep CVS strong.The following is an annual in-depth review of the entire CVS sector providing context for investors in any of the big CVS retailers (and their competing formats) as well as reviews of each major firm's KPIs.

Convenience store (CVS) retailing remains the most dynamic and innovative physical store sector. It is now 50 years since the first Seven Eleven opened and the sector wide drop in sales in 2020 was the first in its history.Whereas department stores also took a battering last year and are likely to struggle to recover, convenience stores should bounce back quickly, including implementing lessons learned in last year’s crisis.That does not mean the format faces no problems, with labour shortages, overly strict operating procedures and an ageing population of store owners (many are now reaching retirement age with no succession in place) all issues that need solutions, but its willingness and ability to adopt new technologies and adapt to the market will continue to keep CVS strong.The following is an annual in-depth review of the entire CVS sector providing context for investors in any of the big CVS retailers (and their competing formats) as well as reviews of each major firm's KPIs.

Convenience Stores: First Decline in 50 Years

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported its 4Q FY09/21 financial results after the market closed on 27th. The company’s revenue for 4Q increased 48.7% YoY to ¥179.7bn and OP for the quarter grew 14.9% YoY to ¥26.9bn.Revenue missed consensus by 1.2% while OP was 12% lower than consensus. However, CyberAgent has been constantly revising its guidance upward and in FY09/2021, the company beat revenue and OP guidance by 2.5% and 4.4% respectively. CyberAgent’s OP margins were at an all-time high in the fiscal year compared to previous years with strong performance in the last three quarters (including 4Q FY09/21). The company’s 4Q FY09/21 revenue dropped 6.5% compared to the previous quarter due to a slight decline in Game revenues on a QoQ basis. CyberAgent’s 3Q game revenues hit an all-time high due to the strong performance of UMA MUSUME Pretty Derby.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/238/102/original/image_33453888171635403605677.png?1635403606" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="238102"></figure>Source: Company disclosures, LSR

Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) reported its 4Q FY09/21 financial results after the market closed on 27th. The company’s revenue for 4Q increased 48.7% YoY to ¥179.7bn and OP for the quarter grew 14.9% YoY to ¥26.9bn.Revenue missed consensus by 1.2% while OP was 12% lower than consensus. However, CyberAgent has been constantly revising its guidance upward and in FY09/2021, the company beat revenue and OP guidance by 2.5% and 4.4% respectively. CyberAgent’s OP margins were at an all-time high in the fiscal year compared to previous years with strong performance in the last three quarters (including 4Q FY09/21). The company’s 4Q FY09/21 revenue dropped 6.5% compared to the previous quarter due to a slight decline in Game revenues on a QoQ basis. CyberAgent’s 3Q game revenues hit an all-time high due to the strong performance of UMA MUSUME Pretty Derby.Source: Company disclosures, LSR

CyberAgent 4Q: A Strong Fiscal Year; Indicative of a Business Turnaround?

Japan

CyberAgent, Inc. operates blog media website, Ameba.  The Company also operates internet advertising agency, foreign exchange trading website, and creates PC and mobile contents such as advertisements and games. CyberAgent invests in companies with internet related business.

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CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)

Valorant’s Regional Parity and Japan’s Emerging Esports Scene

We outline our thoughts on esports in Japan and globally based on some interesting trends during the ongoing Valorant international tournament.

Mio Kato

Dentsu BIG Buyback - Both Larger and Smaller Than It Appears

Dentsu (4324) announced earnings and a large buyback. That buyback is larger than it appears, but actually smaller, but then larger again, but it...

Travis Lundy

CyberAgent: Earnings Miss Consensus and No Guidance; Games Growth Is Worrying

CA's 1QFY09/2022 revenue and OP missed consensus. UMA MUSUME continues to perform strongly, but some of the old titles which had strong ranks have...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Convenience Stores: First Decline in 50 Years

For any investor in Japan's consumer staples sector, the convenience store sector is a key component. The following is an in-depth analysis of the...

Michael Causton

CyberAgent 4Q: A Strong Fiscal Year; Indicative of a Business Turnaround?

Cyberagent reported its 4Q FY09/21 financial results and the company’s revenue for 4Q increased 48.7% YoY to ¥179.7bn and OP for the quarter grew...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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