Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this note, we share highlights from our 12th annual China Property Outlook, the 2024 forecasts for China housing markets, and the core themes</li>
<li>The main 2024 scenarios: NBS national 'commercial residential' new home sales in GFA terms to decline by 3.5% (less negative vs -8.2% for 2023), new starts by 10%</li>
<li>The shift in demand from primary to secondary markets, the 'three major projects', greater divergence between cities, and support for developers, are our core themes for 2024</li>
</ul>


In this note, we share highlights from our 12th annual China Property Outlook, the 2024 forecasts for China housing markets, and the core themes
The main 2024 scenarios: NBS national 'commercial residential' new home sales in GFA terms to decline by 3.5% (less negative vs -8.2% for 2023), new starts by 10%
The shift in demand from primary to secondary markets, the 'three major projects', greater divergence between cities, and support for developers, are our core themes for 2024


Highlights from the 12th Annual China Property Outlook - 2024 Forecast

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 26th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 26th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 26th): Tencent

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We look at the key annual macro-property data for 2011-2023 and review the past 'group forecasts' for new home sales in China in 2023 and 2022</li>
<li>The views in 2023 proved more in line with the actual than in 2022 but NBS revisions to 2022 new home sales data (Mar-Dec) add some complications</li>
<li>You can <a href="https://ref.kubrosearch.com/drawkits/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">join this year's 'draw the line'</a> for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th Annual China Property Outlook</li>
</ul>


We look at the key annual macro-property data for 2011-2023 and review the past 'group forecasts' for new home sales in China in 2023 and 2022
The views in 2023 proved more in line with the actual than in 2022 but NBS revisions to 2022 new home sales data (Mar-Dec) add some complications
You can join this year's 'draw the line' for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th Annual China Property Outlook


China Property: In Hindsight On 2023 and 2022 Forecasts | "Draw The Line" 2024

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H / Event-Driven

Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H

<ul>
<li>An ugly week for HK stocks but SOUTHBOUND flows showed decent net buying at HK$14.7bn on the week. High-Div SOEs continue to be in favour.</li>
<li>What appears to have been strong net selling on the mainland combined with CBBC unwinds in Hong Kong related to mainland-linked stocks caused HK to have a baaaaad week.</li>
<li>The separately published AH Monitor highlights a Really Tough Week. Hs got KILLED vs their A-share counterparts as CBBCs sold the HK names and National Team bought A-shares.</li>
</ul>


An ugly week for HK stocks but SOUTHBOUND flows showed decent net buying at HK$14.7bn on the week. High-Div SOEs continue to be in favour.
What appears to have been strong net selling on the mainland combined with CBBC unwinds in Hong Kong related to mainland-linked stocks caused HK to have a baaaaad week.
The separately published AH Monitor highlights a Really Tough Week. Hs got KILLED vs their A-share counterparts as CBBCs sold the HK names and National Team bought A-shares.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys as CBBC Hedging Hurts

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.


China

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Longfor Properties (960 HK)

Highlights from the 12th Annual China Property Outlook - 2024 Forecast

In this note, we share highlights from our 12th annual China Property Outlook, the 2024 forecasts for China housing markets, and the core themes.

Robert Ciemniak

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 26th): Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight southbound Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Property: In Hindsight On 2023 and 2022 Forecasts | "Draw The Line" 2024

Before getting into the forecasts for 2024, reviewing how the past forecasts fared vs the actuals can be quite illuminating, here is the case for...

Robert Ciemniak

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys as CBBC Hedging Hurts

HK Southbound Connect saw large net buying by mainland investors. ETFs did not play a major role in net flows. Tencent did. High-div SOEs were...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 19th): CCB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight southbound Hong Kong connect flows for CCB.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)