Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 23rd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Tencent, Jd, Baba, Kuaishou, Tracker Fund, Ckh.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 23rd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Tencent, Jd, Baba, Kuaishou, Tracker Fund, Ckh.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Jd, Baba, Kuaishou, Tracker Fund, Ckh

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 30th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 30th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 30th): Tencent, Xiaomi Corporation

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development shared an estimate of the scale of new homes sold and still due for delivery in 2024</li>
<li>The figure is 3.96 million, which at around 100sqm per unit average would imply around 400 million sqm GFA of property</li>
<li>This is a more realistic figure than the much bigger numbers derived from macro data on sales, completions, and under-construction</li>
</ul>


On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development shared an estimate of the scale of new homes sold and still due for delivery in 2024
The figure is 3.96 million, which at around 100sqm per unit average would imply around 400 million sqm GFA of property
This is a more realistic figure than the much bigger numbers derived from macro data on sales, completions, and under-construction


China Housing: The Answer Is 3.96 (Not 42)-New Estimate Of Sold-Still-To-Be-Delivered Units in 2024

<ul>
<li>Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more challenging than expected</li>
<li>In contrast, 2023 was more in line with expectations, with the 'wisdom of crowds' working better; but in 2022 no one got close to predicting the extent of the decline</li>
<li>The forecast focuses on NBS national new home sales (GFA) monthly 12M vs the prior 12M growth rate, with some distortions due to data revisions by NBS</li>
</ul>


Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more challenging than expected
In contrast, 2023 was more in line with expectations, with the 'wisdom of crowds' working better; but in 2022 no one got close to predicting the extent of the decline
The forecast focuses on NBS national new home sales (GFA) monthly 12M vs the prior 12M growth rate, with some distortions due to data revisions by NBS


China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals - Mid-Year 2024 Check And... Some History

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area</li>
<li>From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm</li>
<li>The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized</li>
</ul>


It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area
From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm
The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized


China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

China

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

Price Gauge
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Longfor Properties (960 HK)

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Jd, Baba, Kuaishou, Tracker Fund, Ckh

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 23rd and highlight short interest changes in Tencent, Jd, Baba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 30th): Tencent, Xiaomi Corporation

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Housing: The Answer Is 3.96 (Not 42)-New Estimate Of Sold-Still-To-Be-Delivered Units in 2024

A new estimate for China's 'sold-not-yet-delivered' housing units in 2024 was shared by MoHURD and it looks much better than numbers derived from...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals - Mid-Year 2024 Check And... Some History

Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MoHURD) shared their estimate of the scale of the issue with the 'sold-not...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)