Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: New drilling expected to start in September – A drilling rig is scheduled to be mobilized to site in August.</li>
<li>The two-well infill program, targeting a previously undrilled section of the MGH Field, is anticipated to commence in early September with the wells expected to come on production in early November at a forecasted combined rate of 300 bbl/d.</li>
<li>While this is a bit later than we anticipated, we continue to forecast that Criterium will exit 2024 with ~1,250 boe/d production.</li>
</ul>


Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: New drilling expected to start in September – A drilling rig is scheduled to be mobilized to site in August.
The two-well infill program, targeting a previously undrilled section of the MGH Field, is anticipated to commence in early September with the wells expected to come on production in early November at a forecasted combined rate of 300 bbl/d.
While this is a bit later than we anticipated, we continue to forecast that Criterium will exit 2024 with ~1,250 boe/d production.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover.</li>
<li>There is US$281bn tracking the Select Sector Indices from the SPDR ETFs. The market consultation will have a larger impact on indices where there is a high degree of concentration.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/conocophillips" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18090:1" rel="noopener">Conocophillips</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netflix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1" rel="noopener">Netflix</a> while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procter-gamble-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:978:1" rel="noopener">Procter &amp; Gamble</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costco-wholesale-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18404:1" rel="noopener">Costco Wholesale</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms</a>.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover.
There is US$281bn tracking the Select Sector Indices from the SPDR ETFs. The market consultation will have a larger impact on indices where there is a high degree of concentration.
The largest inflows are expected in Apple, Conocophillips, Amazon.com and Netflix while the largest outflows will be from Microsoft, NVIDIA, Chevron, Procter &amp; Gamble, Exxon Mobil, Costco Wholesale and Meta Platforms.


Select Sector Indices - HUGE Impact of Proposed Constituent Weighting Changes

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US crude inventories fell for the sixth straight week by 3.7 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. However, gasoline stocks rise by 1.3 mb.</li>
<li>For the week ending 02/Aug, US natural gas inventories were up 8.2% YoY and 14.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Occidental shares surged as it beat Q2 EPS estimates by 32.5%. Exxon and Aramco also exceeded EPS forecasts, while Chevron fell short.</li>
</ul>


US crude inventories fell for the sixth straight week by 3.7 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. However, gasoline stocks rise by 1.3 mb.
For the week ending 02/Aug, US natural gas inventories were up 8.2% YoY and 14.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Occidental shares surged as it beat Q2 EPS estimates by 32.5%. Exxon and Aramco also exceeded EPS forecasts, while Chevron fell short.


[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

<ul>
<li>The milder drop in crude oil prices was reflected in energy stocks on Monday, with most major oil and gas companies, outperforming the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>Most of the oil companies’ volume PCR was elevated on Monday and Friday, with Haliburton’s volume PCR exceptionally high at 3.66 on Monday (5/Aug).</li>
<li>On 5/Aug, all major energy companies saw a rise in implied volatility due to recession fears, except Shell, whose IV dropped slightly to 20.01% from 20.28% on Friday.</li>
</ul>


The milder drop in crude oil prices was reflected in energy stocks on Monday, with most major oil and gas companies, outperforming the S&amp;P 500.
Most of the oil companies’ volume PCR was elevated on Monday and Friday, with Haliburton’s volume PCR exceptionally high at 3.66 on Monday (5/Aug).
On 5/Aug, all major energy companies saw a rise in implied volatility due to recession fears, except Shell, whose IV dropped slightly to 20.01% from 20.28% on Friday.


Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target of A$0.75 per share: Reflections on Welchau – IIndependent consultants have calculated that each of the three reservoirs encountered at Welchau (Reifling - 128 metres, Steinalm -118 metres and the Guttenstein - 111 metres) are hydrocarbon bearing with uncertainty on the hydrocarbon type.</li>
<li>Laboratory work on the Steinalm reservoir has confirmed the full properties ofthe 43° API light sweet oil that was recovered in an MDT sample run in the Steinalm Formation.</li>
<li>The vertical extent of this light oil in the Steinalm or in the shallower Reifling and deeper Guttenstein is uncertain and there is no clear evidence of a hydrocarbon-water contact in any of the reservoir formations based on the open hole wireline log data.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target of A$0.75 per share: Reflections on Welchau – IIndependent consultants have calculated that each of the three reservoirs encountered at Welchau (Reifling - 128 metres, Steinalm -118 metres and the Guttenstein - 111 metres) are hydrocarbon bearing with uncertainty on the hydrocarbon type.
Laboratory work on the Steinalm reservoir has confirmed the full properties ofthe 43° API light sweet oil that was recovered in an MDT sample run in the Steinalm Formation.
The vertical extent of this light oil in the Steinalm or in the shallower Reifling and deeper Guttenstein is uncertain and there is no clear evidence of a hydrocarbon-water contact in any of the reservoir formations based on the open hole wireline log data.


United States

Exxon Mobil Corporation operates petroleum and petrochemicals businesses on a worldwide basis.  The Company's operations include exploration and production of oil and gas, electric power generation, and coal and minerals operations. Exxon Mobil also manufactures and markets fuels, lubricants, and chemicals.

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Exxon Mobil (XOM US)

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/08/2024

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: New drilling expected to start in September – A drilling rig is scheduled to be...

Auctus Advisors

Select Sector Indices - HUGE Impact of Proposed Constituent Weighting Changes

The market consultation to change the index weighting methodology will set off a US$28bn trade in Sep. Inflows to Apple, Conocophillips, Amazon.com...

Brian Freitas

[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

US crude inventory falls. Nat-gas inventory up YoY. Oxy beats Q2 EPS estimates by 32%. XOM & Aramco beat forecasts. WTI IVs soared to YTD high of...

Mint Finance

Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

Energy stocks outperformed the S&P 500 on Monday despite a drop in crude oil prices, with elevated volume PCR and rising IV for most oil & gas...

Mint Finance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 02/08/2024

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target of A$0.75 per share: Reflections on Welchau – IIndependent consultants have calculated that each of the three...

Auctus Advisors

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/08/2024

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: New drilling expected to start in September – A drilling rig is scheduled to be...

Auctus Advisors

Select Sector Indices - HUGE Impact of Proposed Constituent Weighting Changes

The market consultation to change the index weighting methodology will set off a US$28bn trade in Sep. Inflows to Apple, Conocophillips, Amazon.com...

Brian Freitas

[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

US crude inventory falls. Nat-gas inventory up YoY. Oxy beats Q2 EPS estimates by 32%. XOM & Aramco beat forecasts. WTI IVs soared to YTD high of...

Mint Finance

Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

​Energy stocks outperformed the S&P 500 on Monday despite a drop in crude oil prices, with elevated volume PCR and rising IV for most oil & gas...

Mint Finance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 02/08/2024

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target of A$0.75 per share: Reflections on Welchau – IIndependent consultants have calculated that each of the three...

Auctus Advisors

Energy stocks outperformed the S&P 500 on Monday despite a drop in crude oil prices, with elevated volume PCR and rising IV for most oil & gas...