Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
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Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Since late 2015 the outlook for the global economy has improved dramatically. Three key interdependent factors are largely responsible for this improvement:<ol>
<li>Stabilizing Chinese economy</li>
<li>Subsiding strength in the USD</li>
<li>Stabilization in commodity prices, specifically oil</li>
</ol>Subsiding strength in the USD since late 2015 has greatly alleviated pressure on China. China’s currency is pegged to the USD and appreciates against other currencies as the USD appreciates making China’s exports less competitive.China…

Since late 2015 the outlook for the global economy has improved dramatically. Three key interdependent factors are largely responsible for this improvement:
Stabilizing Chinese economy
Subsiding strength in the USD
Stabilization in commodity prices, specifically oil
Subsiding strength in the USD since late 2015 has greatly alleviated pressure on China. China’s currency is pegged to the USD and appreciates against other currencies as the USD appreciates making China’s exports less competitive.China…

Is China Property Finally Headed for a Correction? Policy Makers May Have Finally Pushed Too Far

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

The pace of inventory clearing of 'commercial residential' properties in select 12 major cities (number determined by data availability for longer historical data, sourced from SouFun-CREIS) based on September Available-for-Sale inventory data and 6-month average pace of sales shows further improvement (left chart below). In comparison to the four Tier-1 cities, the eight Tier-2 (treated as 'one city') are now clearing inventory faster. This can be explained by strong volume growth in those…

The pace of inventory clearing of 'commercial residential' properties in select 12 major cities (number determined by data availability for longer historical data, sourced from SouFun-CREIS) based on September Available-for-Sale inventory data and 6-month average pace of sales shows further improvement (left chart below). In comparison to the four Tier-1 cities, the eight Tier-2 (treated as 'one city') are now clearing inventory faster. This can be explained by strong volume growth in those…

China Property: Some Tier-2 Cities Now Clear Inventory Faster Than Tier-1, Driven By Volume Spikes

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

We've been bullish on Chinese housing since Q2-2015 - rapidly shrinking inventories since then offer fundamental support, although price growth exceeding 30-40% y/y in several key cities is unsustainable.Income multiples now range from the mid-teens to late-20s for the Tier-1 cities, with prime prices at up to $20k per square metre.However, this is distorted by the huge amount of space hoarded as ‘concrete deposit boxes’ by the top 1% of households (who own about 25% of vacant space) and the…

We've been bullish on Chinese housing since Q2-2015 - rapidly shrinking inventories since then offer fundamental support, although price growth exceeding 30-40% y/y in several key cities is unsustainable.Income multiples now range from the mid-teens to late-20s for the Tier-1 cities, with prime prices at up to $20k per square metre.However, this is distorted by the huge amount of space hoarded as ‘concrete deposit boxes’ by the top 1% of households (who own about 25% of vacant space) and the…

China's Housing Boom Overshooting on Land and New Housing Shortage - 28th Oct 2016

See Attachment - in our monthly Dashboard of indicators to assess dynamics of the residential new home sales market we look at house price growth, sales volume growth, months-to-clear, land sales, and new starts. We compare latest September data with August, with national-level figures and a breakdown for Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3 and others for select cities, depending on data availability.Note that September data will not yet reflect the impact of the property market restrictions introduced at…

See Attachment - in our monthly Dashboard of indicators to assess dynamics of the residential new home sales market we look at house price growth, sales volume growth, months-to-clear, land sales, and new starts. We compare latest September data with August, with national-level figures and a breakdown for Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3 and others for select cities, depending on data availability.Note that September data will not yet reflect the impact of the property market restrictions introduced at…

China Property Market Indicators Dashboard (September Vs August)

In the animated chart below, we visually demonstrate an interesting pattern of house price growth and sales volume growth (in gross floor area terms) for new home sales in China across a few dozen major cities.Using monthly data from January 2012 to August 2016 we show how through the last few cycles, the sales volume growth (12m rolling y/y - on the X axis) tended to lead the price growth y/y (on the Y axis). The latest August data does not reflect the impact of new home purchase restrictions…

In the animated chart below, we visually demonstrate an interesting pattern of house price growth and sales volume growth (in gross floor area terms) for new home sales in China across a few dozen major cities.Using monthly data from January 2012 to August 2016 we show how through the last few cycles, the sales volume growth (12m rolling y/y - on the X axis) tended to lead the price growth y/y (on the Y axis). The latest August data does not reflect the impact of new home purchase restrictions…

China Property Data In Motion: How Sales Volumes Growth Leads House Price Growth: 2012-2016 Cycles

China

Greenland (Hong Kong) Holdings Limited develops real estate in mainland China. The Company focuses primarily on residential properties for the mid- to upper-class segment of the market.

Yuzhou Group Holdings Company Limited develops residential properties in southern China.

China SCE Group Holdings Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops and markets high-rise residential buildings, low-rise apartments, villas, commercial facilities, office buildings, and other related areas. China SCE Group Holdings also provides property management services.

China Aoyuan Group Limited operates as a property development company. The Company develops retails shops and integrated residential projects. China Aoyuan Group conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

Times China Holdings Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops and markets residential areas, office buildings, hotels, restaurants, and other related areas. Times China Holdings markets its buildings throughout China.

Sundy Land Investment Co., Ltd. engages in real estate developments, produces steel products. The company also engages in logistics, e-commerce, warehousing, processing and distribution, as well as supermarket sales.

Beijing Zodi Investment Co. Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company mainly offers equity investment, real estate investment, and other services. Beijing Zodi Investment provides services in China.

Beijing Mainstreets Invst Group Corp. (000609 CH)

Yihua Healthcare Co., Ltd. is a healthcare and medical technology company.

Hopefluent Group Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides comprehensive real estate agency services mainly in Guangzhou as well as various area of Guangdong and other cities such as Tianjin in China.

Central China Real Estate Ltd. develops property in the Peoples Republic of China.

Vanke Property (Overseas) Ltd., through its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, and manages properties.  The Company also provides warehousing services.

PT Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk is a real estate development and management company that develops industrial parks in Indonesia.

Oswal Agro Mills Ltd ceased its manufacturing operations. Currently the source of revenue is from transporting goods.

Glomac Berhad is an investment holding company which operates in property development.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company invests in properties, owns and manages equestrian and recreational club, and provides building contractor services.

Japan Corporate Housing Service Inc. provides maintenance and management services for company housings. The Company also refers leasehold properties to transferees.

PT Suryamas Dutamakmur Tbk develops real estate properties as well as sells land and houses.  The Company also operates golf courses, country clubs, hotels, and other resort facilities.

Better Life Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets ceramic building materials.  The Company produces indoor and outdoor ceramic floor and wall tiles.

PT Greenwood Sejahtera Tbk is a property development company. The Company is focused on land development and purchasing property companies.

PVP Ventures Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company builds office buildings and other projects.

M K Land Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company which provides management services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company develops and invests in properties. M K Land Holdings also manages hotel, resort, and water theme park.

Guorui Properties Limited operates as a property developer. The Company develops residential projects and large-scale mixed-use complex projects in the PRC.

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Guorui Properties (2329 HK)

Is China Property Finally Headed for a Correction? Policy Makers May Have Finally Pushed Too Far

Since late 2015 the outlook for the global economy has improved dramatically. Three key interdependent factors are largely responsible for this...

David Riedel

China Property: Some Tier-2 Cities Now Clear Inventory Faster Than Tier-1, Driven By Volume Spikes

The pace of inventory clearing of 'commercial residential' properties in select 12 major cities (number determined by data availability for longer...

Robert Ciemniak

China's Housing Boom Overshooting on Land and New Housing Shortage - 28th Oct 2016

We've been bullish on Chinese housing since Q2-2015 - rapidly shrinking inventories since then offer fundamental support, although price growth...

Sean Maher

China Property Market Indicators Dashboard (September Vs August)

See Attachment - in our monthly Dashboard of indicators to assess dynamics of the residential new home sales market we look at house price growth,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Data In Motion: How Sales Volumes Growth Leads House Price Growth: 2012-2016 Cycles

In the animated chart below, we visually demonstrate an interesting pattern of house price growth and sales volume growth (in gross floor area...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)