Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on Hainan island may be starting to shine again, especially with a significant volume growth pickup, while many other cities are entering a down-cycle.

After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on Hainan island may be starting to shine again, especially with a significant volume growth pickup, while many other cities are entering a down-cycle.

China Property: A Turning Point For The Sunny Sanya And Hainan Island?

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw lower-tier spill-over cities near Tier-1 cities as top performers, followed by Hefei, Xiamen, Nanjing and Shenzhen, on a 12-month price growth basis. Which cities are worth watching in 2017?

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw lower-tier spill-over cities near Tier-1 cities as top performers, followed by Hefei, Xiamen, Nanjing and Shenzhen, on a 12-month price growth basis. Which cities are worth watching in 2017?

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The average performance of the city on a 12-month basis contrasts with a standout growth in volumes and pickup in prices in recent months (November data); the impact of latest January tightening measures is still to be seen, but the city has a good chance of becoming a relative outperformer in 2017.

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The average performance of the city on a 12-month basis contrasts with a standout growth in volumes and pickup in prices in recent months (November data); the impact of latest January tightening measures is still to be seen, but the city has a good chance of becoming a relative outperformer in 2017.

In our annual 2017 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a cyclical peak in the price growth in Dec/Jan (latest data is for Nov) and sharp deceleration to negative growth by the year-end.

In our annual 2017 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a cyclical peak in the price growth in Dec/Jan (latest data is for Nov) and sharp deceleration to negative growth by the year-end.

The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest data. Volumes growth is slowing down year-to-date year-on-year and declining sequentially, in response to the latest set of policy tightening measures in the city. Our volume-based model would suggest further price deceleration is to be expected, despite still-strong inventory clearing.

The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest data. Volumes growth is slowing down year-to-date year-on-year and declining sequentially, in response to the latest set of policy tightening measures in the city. Our volume-based model would suggest further price deceleration is to be expected, despite still-strong inventory clearing.

China

Greenland (Hong Kong) Holdings Limited develops real estate in mainland China. The Company focuses primarily on residential properties for the mid- to upper-class segment of the market.

Yuzhou Group Holdings Company Limited develops residential properties in southern China.

China SCE Group Holdings Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops and markets high-rise residential buildings, low-rise apartments, villas, commercial facilities, office buildings, and other related areas. China SCE Group Holdings also provides property management services.

China Aoyuan Group Limited operates as a property development company. The Company develops retails shops and integrated residential projects. China Aoyuan Group conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

Times China Holdings Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops and markets residential areas, office buildings, hotels, restaurants, and other related areas. Times China Holdings markets its buildings throughout China.

Sundy Land Investment Co., Ltd. engages in real estate developments, produces steel products. The company also engages in logistics, e-commerce, warehousing, processing and distribution, as well as supermarket sales.

Beijing Zodi Investment Co. Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company mainly offers equity investment, real estate investment, and other services. Beijing Zodi Investment provides services in China.

Beijing Mainstreets Invst Group Corp. (000609 CH)

Yihua Healthcare Co., Ltd. is a healthcare and medical technology company.

Hopefluent Group Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides comprehensive real estate agency services mainly in Guangzhou as well as various area of Guangdong and other cities such as Tianjin in China.

Central China Real Estate Ltd. develops property in the Peoples Republic of China.

Vanke Property (Overseas) Ltd., through its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, and manages properties.  The Company also provides warehousing services.

PT Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk is a real estate development and management company that develops industrial parks in Indonesia.

Oswal Agro Mills Ltd ceased its manufacturing operations. Currently the source of revenue is from transporting goods.

Glomac Berhad is an investment holding company which operates in property development.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company invests in properties, owns and manages equestrian and recreational club, and provides building contractor services.

Japan Corporate Housing Service Inc. provides maintenance and management services for company housings. The Company also refers leasehold properties to transferees.

PT Suryamas Dutamakmur Tbk develops real estate properties as well as sells land and houses.  The Company also operates golf courses, country clubs, hotels, and other resort facilities.

Better Life Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets ceramic building materials.  The Company produces indoor and outdoor ceramic floor and wall tiles.

PT Greenwood Sejahtera Tbk is a property development company. The Company is focused on land development and purchasing property companies.

PVP Ventures Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company builds office buildings and other projects.

M K Land Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company which provides management services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company develops and invests in properties. M K Land Holdings also manages hotel, resort, and water theme park.

Guorui Properties Limited operates as a property developer. The Company develops residential projects and large-scale mixed-use complex projects in the PRC.

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Guorui Properties (2329 HK)

China Property: A Turning Point For The Sunny Sanya And Hainan Island?

After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: 2017 City Picks

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: The Case of Chongqing

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property 2017 Forecast Summary

In our annual 2017 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a cyclical peak in the price growth in Dec/Jan...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: The Case Of Shanghai

The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest...

Robert Ciemniak

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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