Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

TVS Supply Chain Solutions / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-supply-chain-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36778:1" rel="noopener">TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN)</a> is looking to raise up to US$110m in its India IPO, after downsizing from an earlier float of up to US$500m.</li>
<li>TVS SCS is an Indian supply chain logistics solution provider which also has global capabilities and network across the value chain with cross deployment abilities, according to RedSeer. </li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and provide our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN) is looking to raise up to US$110m in its India IPO, after downsizing from an earlier float of up to US$500m.
TVS SCS is an Indian supply chain logistics solution provider which also has global capabilities and network across the value chain with cross deployment abilities, according to RedSeer. 
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and provide our thoughts on valuation.


TVS Supply Chain Solutions IPO - RHP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) delivered a strong set of numbers on the back of higher-than-expected growth in AUM (+32% YoY), customer additions (+42% YoY) and new loans booked (+34% YoY)</li><li>Asset quality improved marginally with GS-II/GS-III at 1.2%/0.9% however, credit costs were slightly higher on the back of prudent provisioning</li><li>Operating efficiency remained steady with the C/I ratio at 34%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) delivered a strong set of numbers on the back of higher-than-expected growth in AUM (+32% YoY), customer additions (+42% YoY) and new loans booked (+34% YoY)Asset quality improved marginally with GS-II/GS-III at 1.2%/0.9% however, credit costs were slightly higher on the back of prudent provisioningOperating efficiency remained steady with the C/I ratio at 34%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Colgate Palmolive

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In Q1FY24, Tech Mahindra Ltd (Tech M) reported revenue of Rs 13,159 Cr, down 4.1% on a QoQ basis.</li><li>While it posted a growth of 3.5% on a YoY basis (in CC terms), it stood below our expectations.</li><li>The company posted an operating profit of Rs 891 Cr, reporting a de-growth of 41.8% on a QoQ basis. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q1FY24, Tech Mahindra Ltd (Tech M) reported revenue of Rs 13,159 Cr, down 4.1% on a QoQ basis.While it posted a growth of 3.5% on a YoY basis (in CC terms), it stood below our expectations.The company posted an operating profit of Rs 891 Cr, reporting a de-growth of 41.8% on a QoQ basis. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tech Mahindra Ltd. - Results Miss Expectations

India

Tech Mahindra Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company markets software for telecommunications equipment manufacturers, telecom service providers, software vendors, and systems integrators.

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Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

TVS Supply Chain Solutions IPO - RHP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

TVS Supply Chain Solutions (1915741D IN) is looking to raise up to US$110m in its India IPO, after downsizing from an earlier float of up to US$500m.

Ethan Aw

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Colgate Palmolive

Bajaj Finance (BAF) delivered a strong set of numbers on the back of higher-than-expected growth in AUM (+32% YoY), customer additions (+42% YoY)...

HDFC Securities

Tech Mahindra Ltd. - Results Miss Expectations

In Q1FY24, Tech Mahindra Ltd (Tech M) reported revenue of Rs 13,159 Cr, down 4.1% on a QoQ basis. While it posted a growth of 3.5% on a YoY basis...

Axis Direct

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