Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>During 4Q2023, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +10.1%y/y, significantly up from the +3.5% reported during 3Q2023.</li>
<li>63% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and only 55% delivered positive Sales surprises, continuing the reacceleration trend witnessed during 2023.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


During 4Q2023, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +10.1%y/y, significantly up from the +3.5% reported during 3Q2023.
63% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and only 55% delivered positive Sales surprises, continuing the reacceleration trend witnessed during 2023.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2023

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over a third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> in deletion zone.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that could be added to the index as a replacement and price changes over the rest of the review period are important.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade over 1x ADV and over 7x of delivery volume on the index changes, so there will be decent impact on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Over a third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) in deletion zone.
There are a bunch of stocks that could be added to the index as a replacement and price changes over the rest of the review period are important.
Passive trackers will need to trade over 1x ADV and over 7x of delivery volume on the index changes, so there will be decent impact on the stocks.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Likely Wipro Deletion Opens an Index Spot

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Axis Bank: Axis Bank (AXSB) reported in-line results, led by healthy loan growth (+4.5% QoQ) and a sharp improvement in asset quality</li><li>NIMs were flat sequentially at 4.11% with the deposit book continuing to reprice on the back of accelerated TD mobilisation and decline in CASA deposits (-118bps QoQ to 44.4%)</li><li>This led to a further increase in the loan-to-deposit ratio to ~94%, which appears increasingly untenable</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Bank: Axis Bank (AXSB) reported in-line results, led by healthy loan growth (+4.5% QoQ) and a sharp improvement in asset qualityNIMs were flat sequentially at 4.11% with the deposit book continuing to reprice on the back of accelerated TD mobilisation and decline in CASA deposits (-118bps QoQ to 44.4%)This led to a further increase in the loan-to-deposit ratio to ~94%, which appears increasingly untenableContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Jubilant FoodWorks, Sonata Software

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In Q2FY24, Tech Mahindra Ltd. (Tech M) reported revenue of Rs 12,869 Cr, down 2.2% on a QoQ basis.</li><li>While it posted a de-growth of 5.9% on a YoY basis (in CC terms), it stood below our expectations.</li><li>The company posted an operating profit of Rs 606 Cr, reporting a de-growth of 31.9% on a QoQ basis. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q2FY24, Tech Mahindra Ltd. (Tech M) reported revenue of Rs 12,869 Cr, down 2.2% on a QoQ basis.While it posted a de-growth of 5.9% on a YoY basis (in CC terms), it stood below our expectations.The company posted an operating profit of Rs 606 Cr, reporting a de-growth of 31.9% on a QoQ basis. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tech Mahindra Lt - Results Miss Expectations; Outlook Remains Weak

<ul><li>The big news is that not much has changed in the past few months</li><li>Most of the demand indicators are trailing 10-15% below levels at the beginning of the year and only slightly better than the July lows, the supply-side factors remain favourable, supporting operational resilience despite soft growth</li><li>In Q2FY24, the IT sector is expected to deliver a soft quarter, although Q2 has historically been a seasonally strong quarter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The big news is that not much has changed in the past few monthsMost of the demand indicators are trailing 10-15% below levels at the beginning of the year and only slightly better than the July lows, the supply-side factors remain favourable, supporting operational resilience despite soft growthIn Q2FY24, the IT sector is expected to deliver a soft quarter, although Q2 has historically been a seasonally strong quarter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Tech Mahindra Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company markets software for telecommunications equipment manufacturers, telecom service providers, software vendors, and systems integrators.

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Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN)

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2023

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Likely Wipro Deletion Opens an Index Spot

Wipro is a potential deletion from the SENSEX in June. Adani Enterprises is in pole position, just ahead of Coal India. Passives need to trade over...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Jubilant FoodWorks, Sonata Software

Axis Bank (AXSB) reported in-line results, led by healthy loan growth (+4.5% QoQ) and a sharp improvement in asset quality

HDFC Securities

Tech Mahindra Lt - Results Miss Expectations; Outlook Remains Weak

In Q2FY24, Tech Mahindra Ltd. (Tech M) reported revenue of Rs 12,869 Cr, down 2.2% on a QoQ basis. While it posted a de-growth of 5.9% on a YoY...

Axis Direct

IT Sector - Soft Q2, Status Quo Remains

Most of the demand indicators are trailing 10-15% below levels at the beginning of the year and only slightly better than the July lows

HDFC Securities

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