Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maersk's Q1 earnings were solid, despite plummeting container rates and volumes. Annualizing Q1 Net Income would give RoE of about 17%, which is a healthy level, in our view. </li>
<li>Q1 EBITDA of US$4 bn is equivalent to 36% to 50% of full-year guidance, which remains unchanged. Maersk indicated Q1 will likely be its most profitable quarter in 2023.</li>
<li>Maersk's result reinforces our view that container rates are bottoming. A related takeaway is that a slowing goods inflation rate could lose a tailwind it's enjoyed since last October.</li>
</ul>


Maersk's Q1 earnings were solid, despite plummeting container rates and volumes. Annualizing Q1 Net Income would give RoE of about 17%, which is a healthy level, in our view. 
Q1 EBITDA of US$4 bn is equivalent to 36% to 50% of full-year guidance, which remains unchanged. Maersk indicated Q1 will likely be its most profitable quarter in 2023.
Maersk's result reinforces our view that container rates are bottoming. A related takeaway is that a slowing goods inflation rate could lose a tailwind it's enjoyed since last October.


Maersk Q1: Earnings Fine | Guidance Intact | Takeaways for Container Shipping (And Inflation)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>While we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> in the long term, we are caution that 1Q23 result may be disappointing. Its 4Q22 earnings already showed 49.1% YoY and 73.3% QoQ decline.</li>
<li>Indicators including China's PMI new export orders, export growth, container shipping freight rates (SCFI) and airfreight rates all showed that the recovery trend is weak. </li>
<li>9% of FY22 profit is from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated, and this may not happen again. Consensus forecast of just 10% decline in FY23 net profit seems overly optimistic. </li>
</ul>


While we like Sinotrans (598 HK) in the long term, we are caution that 1Q23 result may be disappointing. Its 4Q22 earnings already showed 49.1% YoY and 73.3% QoQ decline.
Indicators including China's PMI new export orders, export growth, container shipping freight rates (SCFI) and airfreight rates all showed that the recovery trend is weak. 
9% of FY22 profit is from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated, and this may not happen again. Consensus forecast of just 10% decline in FY23 net profit seems overly optimistic. 


Sinotrans (598 HK): We Are Concerned About the near Term Challenges

<ul>
<li>We stay bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> despite record net profit in FY22. The collapse in spot freight rate will take a toll on FY23 earnings.</li>
<li>Management is also conservative on outlook, citing both demand and supply issues. It expects gross margin to return to pre-pandemic levels (17-20%) in the future, vs. 41.8% in 2H22.</li>
<li>Market consensus is just too optimistic, projecting just 37% YoY decline in earnings for FY23. We believe actual earnings may be at least 18-27% lower than current street forecasts. </li>
</ul>


We stay bearish on SITC International (1308 HK) despite record net profit in FY22. The collapse in spot freight rate will take a toll on FY23 earnings.
Management is also conservative on outlook, citing both demand and supply issues. It expects gross margin to return to pre-pandemic levels (17-20%) in the future, vs. 41.8% in 2H22.
Market consensus is just too optimistic, projecting just 37% YoY decline in earnings for FY23. We believe actual earnings may be at least 18-27% lower than current street forecasts. 


SITC International (1308 HK): Still Not Easy to Find the Bright Spot

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. </li>
<li>We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.</li>
<li>Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> will fare better than others.</li>
</ul>


Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. 
We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.
Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think SITC International (1308 HK) and Sinotrans (598 HK) will fare better than others.


China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 11th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in AIA, Li Ning, SHK PPT, CSPC Pharma, Fosun Pharma, Kingsoft.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 11th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in AIA, Li Ning, SHK PPT, CSPC Pharma, Fosun Pharma, Kingsoft.


HK Short Interest Weekly: AIA, Li Ning, SHK PPT, CSPC Pharma, Fosun Pharma, Kingsoft

Hong Kong

SITC International Holdings Company Ltd. offers marine shipping services.  The Company offers container liner shipping, freight forwarding, customs clearance, shipping agency, and ship brokerage services.  SITC operates in Asia.

Pacific Basin Shipping Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides marine transportation services and logistical support to its customers through the commercial operation of a large, modern, and uniformly-sized fleet of shallow-draft Handysize dry bulk carriers.

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

Chu Kong Shipping Enterprises (Group) Company Limited provides shipping and cargo handling services between Hong Kong and China.  The Company's services include freight forwarding, wharf cargo handling, cargo consolidation, warehouse storage, and trucking.  Chu Kong Shipping also provides container hauling services.

Chu Kong Shipping Enterprises(Grp) (560 HK)

China Merchants Holdings International Company Limited, through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates container and cargo terminals, port transportation, and airport cargo handling.  The Company also manufactures containers, paint, and trailers as well as operates toll road, shipping, property, and dealing securities businesses.

COSCO Shipping Ports Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides shipping container leasing services worldwide.  The Company also operates container terminals and provides container handling, storage, transportation and management services, as well as depot handling and stevedoring services.

Shenzhen International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides investment, construction, and operation of logistic infrastructure facilities, as well as offers value-added logistic services. Shenzhen International serves customers worldwide.

Kerry Logistics Network Limited provides logistics services in Asia and internationally. The Company offers integrated logistics services, as well as leases warehousing space in Hong Kong and provides international freight forwarding services.

Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Ltd., through its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, operates, and manages toll highways, expressways, and bridges in China.

Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure (1052 HK)

Dafeng Port Heshun Technology Co Ltd provides integrated logistics for freight services. The Company focuses on land and ocean freight services, air freight forwarding services, and operation equipment rental services. Gamme Logistics offers its services primarily between Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region.

Kirby Corporation operates a fleet of inland tank barges.  The Company transports industrial chemicals, refined petroleum products, black oil products, and agricultural chemicals.  Kirby also overhauls and services diesel engines employed in marine, power generation, and rail applications.

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

MISC Berhad owns ships and operates shipping and related services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides trucking, warehousing and forwarding service, containers and prime movers repair, and container haulage. MISC Berhad also has operation in trucking and launch operator.

Yang Ming Marine Transport provides transportation services and handles domestic and foreign maritime services on cargos.  The Company also operates warehouse, wharf, tug, barge, and container freight station services as well as repairs, leases, and sells containers and chassis.

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

Wan Hai Lines Ltd. provides marine transportation and shipping agent services. The Company also purchases, sells, and leases vessels and containers as well as operates container freight stations.

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

Matson Inc., is involved in transportation and logistics.  The Company offers provides  multimodal transportation services to the North American market, including domestic and international rail intermodal service, long haul and regional highway brokerage, supply chain services and LTL transportation services, as well as third-party logistics services.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

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Orient Overseas International (316 HK)

Maersk Q1: Earnings Fine | Guidance Intact | Takeaways for Container Shipping (And Inflation)

Maersk's Q1 result showed a steep Y/Y decline in earnings due to lower rates. But RoE is fine, and the company maintained guidance, which supports...

Tracking Traffic

Sinotrans (598 HK): We Are Concerned About the near Term Challenges

After a weak 4Q22 result, we think there are risks that 1Q23 and 1H23 earnings may not come out as expected. Market consensus forecast of 10% net...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SITC International (1308 HK): Still Not Easy to Find the Bright Spot

SITC is still facing tough operating environment with freight rate pressure. Market consensus looks too optimistic which means downgrade risks....

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

We are cautious on China's export outlook in 2023, and operating environment of port, container shipping and logistics sectors will be challenging....

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: AIA, Li Ning, SHK PPT, CSPC Pharma, Fosun Pharma, Kingsoft

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 11th and highlight short interest changes in AIA, Li Ning, SHK PPT,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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