Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022</li>
<li>Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth</li>
<li>Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming</li>
</ul>


December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022
Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth
Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

<ul>
<li>As we begin lapping easy comps, our momentum index looks "less bad"</li>
<li>Red Sea re-routes, interest rate moves, fuel all helped lift shares recently</li>
<li>We think lots of bad news has been priced into shares at current levels</li>
</ul>


As we begin lapping easy comps, our momentum index looks "less bad"
Red Sea re-routes, interest rate moves, fuel all helped lift shares recently
We think lots of bad news has been priced into shares at current levels


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Lapping Easy Comps | Red Sea Re-Routes & More (December 2023)

<ul>
<li>Price momentum in October was negative, but decline moderated somewhat</li>
<li>Disparate Q3 profitability trends reported by Maersk, Evergreen, and ZIM </li>
<li>As sentiment weakens (again), we also see signs of a cyclical bottom</li>
</ul>


Price momentum in October was negative, but decline moderated somewhat
Disparate Q3 profitability trends reported by Maersk, Evergreen, and ZIM 
As sentiment weakens (again), we also see signs of a cyclical bottom


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Maersk, Evergreen, ZIM Report Disparate Results (November 2023)

<ul>
<li>Container shipping giant Maersk met Q3 expectations and maintained earlier FY23 guidance</li>
<li>However, downbeat commentary combined with capex and job cuts sent shares -17% lower</li>
<li>Maersk does not expect any recovery in '24, but we believe this pessimism already in prices</li>
</ul>


Container shipping giant Maersk met Q3 expectations and maintained earlier FY23 guidance
However, downbeat commentary combined with capex and job cuts sent shares -17% lower
Maersk does not expect any recovery in '24, but we believe this pessimism already in prices


Maersk Q3: Estimates Met, Guidance Kept | But Downbeat Assessment of Market Sends Shares Down -17%

<ul>
<li>Price momentum stagnant, but could North American volume surge be an inflection point?</li>
<li>Fuel price hasn't risen since outbreak of violence in mideast, but no longer a tailwind, either</li>
<li>Look to Maersk results on November 3 for guidance, US inventory de-stocking commentary</li>
</ul>


Price momentum stagnant, but could North American volume surge be an inflection point?
Fuel price hasn't risen since outbreak of violence in mideast, but no longer a tailwind, either
Look to Maersk results on November 3 for guidance, US inventory de-stocking commentary


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rebound in NAM Volume Could Be Inflection Point (October 2023)

Hong Kong

SITC International Holdings Company Ltd. offers marine shipping services.  The Company offers container liner shipping, freight forwarding, customs clearance, shipping agency, and ship brokerage services.  SITC operates in Asia.

Pacific Basin Shipping Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides marine transportation services and logistical support to its customers through the commercial operation of a large, modern, and uniformly-sized fleet of shallow-draft Handysize dry bulk carriers.

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

Chu Kong Shipping Enterprises (Group) Company Limited provides shipping and cargo handling services between Hong Kong and China.  The Company's services include freight forwarding, wharf cargo handling, cargo consolidation, warehouse storage, and trucking.  Chu Kong Shipping also provides container hauling services.

Chu Kong Shipping Enterprises(Grp) (560 HK)

China Merchants Holdings International Company Limited, through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates container and cargo terminals, port transportation, and airport cargo handling.  The Company also manufactures containers, paint, and trailers as well as operates toll road, shipping, property, and dealing securities businesses.

COSCO Shipping Ports Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides shipping container leasing services worldwide.  The Company also operates container terminals and provides container handling, storage, transportation and management services, as well as depot handling and stevedoring services.

Shenzhen International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides investment, construction, and operation of logistic infrastructure facilities, as well as offers value-added logistic services. Shenzhen International serves customers worldwide.

Kerry Logistics Network Limited provides logistics services in Asia and internationally. The Company offers integrated logistics services, as well as leases warehousing space in Hong Kong and provides international freight forwarding services.

Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Ltd., through its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, operates, and manages toll highways, expressways, and bridges in China.

Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure (1052 HK)

Dafeng Port Heshun Technology Co Ltd provides integrated logistics for freight services. The Company focuses on land and ocean freight services, air freight forwarding services, and operation equipment rental services. Gamme Logistics offers its services primarily between Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region.

Kirby Corporation operates a fleet of inland tank barges.  The Company transports industrial chemicals, refined petroleum products, black oil products, and agricultural chemicals.  Kirby also overhauls and services diesel engines employed in marine, power generation, and rail applications.

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

MISC Berhad owns ships and operates shipping and related services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides trucking, warehousing and forwarding service, containers and prime movers repair, and container haulage. MISC Berhad also has operation in trucking and launch operator.

Yang Ming Marine Transport provides transportation services and handles domestic and foreign maritime services on cargos.  The Company also operates warehouse, wharf, tug, barge, and container freight station services as well as repairs, leases, and sells containers and chassis.

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

Wan Hai Lines Ltd. provides marine transportation and shipping agent services. The Company also purchases, sells, and leases vessels and containers as well as operates container freight stations.

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

Matson Inc., is involved in transportation and logistics.  The Company offers provides  multimodal transportation services to the North American market, including domestic and international rail intermodal service, long haul and regional highway brokerage, supply chain services and LTL transportation services, as well as third-party logistics services.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

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Orient Overseas International (316 HK)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

Price momentum for deep-sea container rates is improving, and container volumes are also firming. Meanwhile, cheap fuel remains a slightly helpful...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Lapping Easy Comps | Red Sea Re-Routes & More (December 2023)

We believe price momentum has started to get "less bad", mainly due to easier Y/Y comps. A potential Red Sea re-route could soak up lots of under...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Maersk, Evergreen, ZIM Report Disparate Results (November 2023)

Container rates remain under pressure, and fuel is no longer a tailwind. But Evergreen's stellar performance YTD is worthy of investors' attention,...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q3: Estimates Met, Guidance Kept | But Downbeat Assessment of Market Sends Shares Down -17%

Last Friday Maersk reported Q3 results that met expectations. The company maintained FY23 guidance, but announced surprising cash-conservation...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rebound in NAM Volume Could Be Inflection Point (October 2023)

Pricing still appears stagnant, but a sharp rebound in container volumes moving into the ports along North America's Pacific coast in September...

Tracking Traffic

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