Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It's a fair bet Hancock Prospecting and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> are actively discussing the final stages for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> behind the scenes.</li>
<li>It is unlikely MinRes aggressively builds a ~19% stake in a company subject to a two-way takeover battle, and declares its position "strategic" with no intention of making an Offer. </li>
<li>This stake may be a bargaining chip from MinRes to keep Hancock on the sidelines in its tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


It's a fair bet Hancock Prospecting and Mineral Resources (MIN AU) are actively discussing the final stages for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) behind the scenes.
It is unlikely MinRes aggressively builds a ~19% stake in a company subject to a two-way takeover battle, and declares its position "strategic" with no intention of making an Offer. 
This stake may be a bargaining chip from MinRes to keep Hancock on the sidelines in its tilt for Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU).


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> has revised its offer from 1 MinRes share for every 1,367 NWE shares to 1 MinRes share for every 1,300 NWE shares. The offer is unconditional. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a> Board now recommends the offer. Most of the value uplift is due to the 17.4% increase in MinRes’ share price since 15 December.</li>
<li>MinRes’ revised off-market takeover offer is fair in comparison to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>’s bids and historical ranges. However, this is predicated on the MinRes maintaining its share price run.</li>
</ul>



Mineral Resources (MIN AU) has revised its offer from 1 MinRes share for every 1,367 NWE shares to 1 MinRes share for every 1,300 NWE shares. The offer is unconditional. 
The Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU) Board now recommends the offer. Most of the value uplift is due to the 17.4% increase in MinRes’ share price since 15 December.
MinRes’ revised off-market takeover offer is fair in comparison to Warrego Energy (WGO AU)’s bids and historical ranges. However, this is predicated on the MinRes maintaining its share price run.


Norwest Energy (NWE AU): The Board Perplexing Succumbs to MinRes’ Revised Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>’s offers from Hancock and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).</li>
<li>A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.</li>
</ul>



Warrego Energy (WGO AU)’s offers from Hancock and Strike Energy (STX AU) close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).
A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a>'s off-market takeover offer at 1 MIN share for every 1,367 NWE shares closes on 6 February. The target's statement will be despatched by early to mid-January.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a> Board recommends shareholders take no action. The timing is opportunistic and motivated by recent Perth Basin consolidation activity. </li>
<li>Hancock’s latest bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to reject the offer.</li>
</ul>



Mineral Resources (MIN AU)'s off-market takeover offer at 1 MIN share for every 1,367 NWE shares closes on 6 February. The target's statement will be despatched by early to mid-January.
The Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU) Board recommends shareholders take no action. The timing is opportunistic and motivated by recent Perth Basin consolidation activity. 
Hancock’s latest bid for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to reject the offer.


Norwest Energy (NWE AU): Valuation Read Across from Warrego’s Takeover Battle

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/15pc-of-warrego-s-register-changes-hands-fingers-point-to-minres-20230104-p5caeo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> was the buyer of 15% of outstanding shares at A$0.35, 25.0% above Hancock and 4.5% above <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>’s offer.</li>
<li>MinRes’ move is motivated by the desire to have a say in the recent Perth Basin consolidation. It recently lobbed an all-scrip takeover offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>.   </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>'s three largest shareholders are now the three suitors. The emergence of MinRes (if confirmed) suggests that the takeover battle is far from done. </li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that Mineral Resources (MIN AU) was the buyer of 15% of outstanding shares at A$0.35, 25.0% above Hancock and 4.5% above Strike Energy (STX AU)’s offer.
MinRes’ move is motivated by the desire to have a say in the recent Perth Basin consolidation. It recently lobbed an all-scrip takeover offer for Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU).   

Warrego Energy (WGO AU)'s three largest shareholders are now the three suitors. The emergence of MinRes (if confirmed) suggests that the takeover battle is far from done. 


Warrego (WGO AU): Has MinRes Gatecrashed the Party?

Australia

Beach Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company holds interests in exploration and production tenements in Australia, USA, Egypt, Tanzania and Papua New Guinea.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Beach Energy (BPT AU)

Where To Go With Warrego?

It is fair to say Hancock has significant firepower in reserve - provided they know how MinRes will respond. The Trade: At A$0.40/share, I'd still...

David Blennerhassett

Norwest Energy (NWE AU): The Board Perplexing Succumbs to MinRes’ Revised Offer

The Board has bafflingly recommended an offer that looks good mainly due to the MinRes share price run. Offer unconditional. At the last close, the...

Arun George

Warrego (WGO AU): End-Game Scenarios

Unlikely to see another bump as stretched valuations and deal fatigue sets in. Trading through Hancock's terms, the slim 1.3% spread to Strike’s...

Arun George

Norwest Energy (NWE AU): Valuation Read Across from Warrego’s Takeover Battle

MinRes' offer is open. Hancock’s latest bid for Warrego suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to...

Arun George

Warrego (WGO AU): Has MinRes Gatecrashed the Party?

MinRes is rumoured to be the buyer of a 15% stake. The emergence of MinRes (if confirmed) suggests that the takeover battle is far from done.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)