Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

After a disappointing 4QFY21 results release, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> shares dropped 6.3% yesterday. The company’s share price is <a target="_blank">down 35% from the October 2020 peak </a>but remains 17% above the COVID-19 sell-off low level.With increased regulatory scrutiny on Chinese e-commerce and growth to value rotation in the equity markets, Alibaba was under a lot of pressure to release strong 4QFY21 results. However, yesterday’s results were rather disappointing and we think there could be more downside pressure on Alibaba shares with the ongoing growth to value rotation.

After a disappointing 4QFY21 results release, Alibaba Group (BABA US) shares dropped 6.3% yesterday. The company’s share price is down 35% from the October 2020 peak but remains 17% above the COVID-19 sell-off low level.With increased regulatory scrutiny on Chinese e-commerce and growth to value rotation in the equity markets, Alibaba was under a lot of pressure to release strong 4QFY21 results. However, yesterday’s results were rather disappointing and we think there could be more downside pressure on Alibaba shares with the ongoing growth to value rotation.

Alibaba 4QFY21: Marketplace Margins Are Coming Down Hard & Cloud Loses a Big Customer

Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> reported FY2021 results, the stock took a 6% slide in a market that was already skittish and looking for an excuse to jump off the global tech names and even more so for the Chinese platforms because of the continuing regulatory concerns. In this environment, it is easy to lose conviction on a stock.  However, I offer three reasons why investors should not be discouraged about BABA and its perceived weak results:<ol>
<li>
Operating profit did NOT decline.  Excluding the AML penalty of CNY18.2 bn, operating profit in the March quarter would have grown 48% YoY, and 18% on a full-year basis.</li>
<li>
Revenue growths remain brisk at 64% for the quarter and 41% for the full year, beating consensus expectations.  Excluding Sun Art consolidation, it would still be a robust 39% and 32%, respectively.  Customer management revenue growth of 40% YoY in the March quarter was promising. </li>
<li>
Cloud profitability on the rise.  After breaking even in the Dec quarter, the segment EBITA margin rose to 1.8% -- still small but fast improving.       </li>
</ol>Keep in mind that Alibaba is out of the crosshair of regulators, while its competitors are only beginning to feel the heat. I believe the company is in a good position to leverage its gigantic free cash flow and the uncertainty facing its competitors to gain market share.   I estimate Alibaba’s operating profit to grow 61% in FY2022.   Key risk: Management stated that it would reallocate incremental profits into generating incremental revenue growth. Alibaba management always states that it does not manage by margins.  However, the company has always maintained its marketplace EBITA margins above 70% (of marketplace revenues, not total revenues).  I believe margins will continue to trend down,  largely because of the faster than expected revenue growth, but its profit growth will remain robust.    Previous related reports: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-e-commerce-robust-consumption-data-hints-at-online-spending-spree" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50798" rel="noopener">China E-Commerce: Robust Consumption Data Hints at Online Spending Spree</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-baba-us-record-fine-grin-and-bear-it-as-better-days-are-ahead" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50219" rel="noopener">Alibaba (BABA US): Record Fine - Grin and Bear It as Better Days Are Ahead</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-baba-us-ant-group-woes-overly-priced-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48648" rel="noopener">Alibaba (BABA US): Ant Group Woes Overly Priced-In</a>

After Alibaba Group (BABA US) reported FY2021 results, the stock took a 6% slide in a market that was already skittish and looking for an excuse to jump off the global tech names and even more so for the Chinese platforms because of the continuing regulatory concerns. In this environment, it is easy to lose conviction on a stock.  However, I offer three reasons why investors should not be discouraged about BABA and its perceived weak results:

Operating profit did NOT decline.  Excluding the AML penalty of CNY18.2 bn, operating profit in the March quarter would have grown 48% YoY, and 18% on a full-year basis.

Revenue growths remain brisk at 64% for the quarter and 41% for the full year, beating consensus expectations.  Excluding Sun Art consolidation, it would still be a robust 39% and 32%, respectively.  Customer management revenue growth of 40% YoY in the March quarter was promising. 

Cloud profitability on the rise.  After breaking even in the Dec quarter, the segment EBITA margin rose to 1.8% -- still small but fast improving.       
Keep in mind that Alibaba is out of the crosshair of regulators, while its competitors are only beginning to feel the heat. I believe the company is in a good position to leverage its gigantic free cash flow and the uncertainty facing its competitors to gain market share.   I estimate Alibaba’s operating profit to grow 61% in FY2022.   Key risk: Management stated that it would reallocate incremental profits into generating incremental revenue growth. Alibaba management always states that it does not manage by margins.  However, the company has always maintained its marketplace EBITA margins above 70% (of marketplace revenues, not total revenues).  I believe margins will continue to trend down,  largely because of the faster than expected revenue growth, but its profit growth will remain robust.    Previous related reports: China E-Commerce: Robust Consumption Data Hints at Online Spending SpreeAlibaba (BABA US): Record Fine - Grin and Bear It as Better Days Are Ahead Alibaba (BABA US): Ant Group Woes Overly Priced-In 

Alibaba (BABA US): Three Reasons Why Investors Should Not Fret

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Revenue accelerated in 4Q21, even excluding the acquisition of Sun Art.</li>
<li>Operating profit increased YoY after adding back the anti-monopoly fine.</li>
<li>The stock price has fallen significantly from its high this year.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 18%.</li>
</ul>Our previous coverage on Alibaba:<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-baba-opens-store-in-tencent-wechat-a-surrender" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50590" rel="noopener">Alibaba (BABA): Opens Store in Tencent WeChat - A Surrender</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alibaba-baba-fined-2-78-billion-for-either-or-but-impact-is-neither-big-nor-long-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50213" rel="noopener">Alibaba (BABA): Fined $2.78 Billion for “Either Or”, But Impact Is Neither Big Nor Long Term</a> </li>
</ul>


Revenue accelerated in 4Q21, even excluding the acquisition of Sun Art.
Operating profit increased YoY after adding back the anti-monopoly fine.
The stock price has fallen significantly from its high this year.
We set an upside of 18%.
Our previous coverage on Alibaba:

Alibaba (BABA): Opens Store in Tencent WeChat - A Surrender 

Alibaba (BABA): Fined $2.78 Billion for “Either Or”, But Impact Is Neither Big Nor Long Term 


Alibaba (BABA): 4Q21 Result, Not as Bad as It Looks

Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOM IN)</a> , a Gurgaon based start-up, is launching its IPO, which is perceived to be one of the most excited events in 2021. Such is the familiarity of this company, which is one of the pioneers in food-delivery cum restaurant aggregator tech platform in India. 
Zomato has increased multifold in the last decade. Backed by some of the headline investors which include but not limited to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber (UBER US)</a>, Ant Financial, Sequoia, Tiger Global, Fidelity etc., the company has reached a valuation of $5.9 bn in Feb'21. As the company becomes the ray of hope for several promising consumer tech and internet companies in India, the IPO is expected to be the one that receives great attention.
Zomato's revenues may have grown at the rate of knots since F18, it is imperative to know that the company is still at a cash burn stage, delivering negative EBITDA. But there are many more cautions one should be aware of, ranging from accounting changes to volatile balance sheet to poor investments. Like always, we do not comment on the valuation of IPO.

Zomato (ZOM IN) , a Gurgaon based start-up, is launching its IPO, which is perceived to be one of the most excited events in 2021. Such is the familiarity of this company, which is one of the pioneers in food-delivery cum restaurant aggregator tech platform in India. 
Zomato has increased multifold in the last decade. Backed by some of the headline investors which include but not limited to Info Edge India (INFOE IN) , Alibaba Group (9988 HK) , Uber (UBER US), Ant Financial, Sequoia, Tiger Global, Fidelity etc., the company has reached a valuation of $5.9 bn in Feb'21. As the company becomes the ray of hope for several promising consumer tech and internet companies in India, the IPO is expected to be the one that receives great attention.
Zomato's revenues may have grown at the rate of knots since F18, it is imperative to know that the company is still at a cash burn stage, delivering negative EBITDA. But there are many more cautions one should be aware of, ranging from accounting changes to volatile balance sheet to poor investments. Like always, we do not comment on the valuation of IPO.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ximalaya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33232:1" rel="noopener">Ximalaya (XIMA US)</a>, the largest online audio platform in China, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its US listing. </div><div>As of 1Q21, it had 250m average MAUs, which included 104m mobile MAUs through its apps and 146m MAUs through internet-of-things (IoT) and other third-party platforms. As per CIC, it accounted for 75% of total mobile listening time among all online audio platforms in China. It had 5.2m active content creators in 2020.</div><div>
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-the-positives-a-whole-lot-of-listening" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-the-positives-a-whole-lot-of-listening" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Whole Lot of Listening</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-the-negatives" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-the-negatives" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Negatives</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ximalaya Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-xima-has-large-market-share-but-small-competitors-have-big-bosses" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ximalaya (XIMA): Has Large Market Share, But Small Competitors Have Big Bosses</a></li>
</ul>
</div><div>In this note, we will talk about earnings and valuation.</div>

Ximalaya (XIMA US), the largest online audio platform in China, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its US listing. As of 1Q21, it had 250m average MAUs, which included 104m mobile MAUs through its apps and 146m MAUs through internet-of-things (IoT) and other third-party platforms. As per CIC, it accounted for 75% of total mobile listening time among all online audio platforms in China. It had 5.2m active content creators in 2020.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes:


 Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Whole Lot of Listening

Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Negatives
Ximalaya Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison
Ximalaya (XIMA): Has Large Market Share, But Small Competitors Have Big Bosses

In this note, we will talk about earnings and valuation.

Ximalaya Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Alibaba 4QFY21: Marketplace Margins Are Coming Down Hard & Cloud Loses a Big Customer

Alibaba's 1QFY21 results were rather weak as the marketplace business margin came down hard and the Cloud business lost a major customer.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Alibaba (BABA US): Three Reasons Why Investors Should Not Fret

Alibaba's shares took a hit in a tough market as the media characterized the company's earnings as disappointing. On the contrary, I offer three...

Mitchell Kim

Alibaba (BABA): 4Q21 Result, Not as Bad as It Looks

Revenue accelerated in 4Q21, even excluding the acquisition of Sun Art. Operating profit increased YoY after adding back the anti-monopoly fine.

Ming Lu

Zomato IPO: Caution Before Frenzy

Zomato's revenues may have grown at the rate of knots since F18. But there are many more cautions one should be aware of, ranging from accounting...

Nitin Mangal

Ximalaya Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation

Ximalaya (XIMA US), the largest online audio platform in China, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its US listing. As of 1Q21, it had 250m...

Sumeet Singh

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