Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s revenue from physical stores decreased year over year for the first time.</li>
<li>The operating margin declined despite that Alibaba cut losses in minor businesses.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 15% and a price target at HK$101. Downgrade to Hold.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s revenue from physical stores decreased year over year for the first time.
The operating margin declined despite that Alibaba cut losses in minor businesses.
We conclude an upside of 15% and a price target at HK$101. Downgrade to Hold.


Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q23, Physical Store Revenue Decreased for First Time, Downgrade to Hold

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a>'s 4QFY23 OP beat consensus by around RMB 2.5bn (20% beat) through cost cutting, but YoY revenue growth remained sluggish at 2.0%.</li>
<li>Consensus expectations of Alibaba achieving an OP of RMB 150bn by FY25 may be overly optimistic due to declining dominance of Taobao and Tmall, and lack of profitable alternative businesses.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> would need to excel to reach RMB100bn OP, resulting in a high FY+2 EV/OP of 14.0x. This seems steep for a company with minimal earnings growth.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)'s 4QFY23 OP beat consensus by around RMB 2.5bn (20% beat) through cost cutting, but YoY revenue growth remained sluggish at 2.0%.
Consensus expectations of Alibaba achieving an OP of RMB 150bn by FY25 may be overly optimistic due to declining dominance of Taobao and Tmall, and lack of profitable alternative businesses.

Alibaba Group (9988 HK) would need to excel to reach RMB100bn OP, resulting in a high FY+2 EV/OP of 14.0x. This seems steep for a company with minimal earnings growth.


Alibaba 4QFY23: Concerns Surrounding Taobao and Tmall, Disappointing IPO-Bound Cloud & Cainiao

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

AUB Group Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">AUB Group Limited (AUB AU)</a> is looking to raise up to AUD150m (US$100m) in its primary placement. The proceeds will be used to strengthen its balance sheet.</li>
<li>The deal would be a large one to digest at 24 days of three month ADV and dilution of 6.2%.  </li>
<li>In this note, we'll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



AUB Group Limited (AUB AU) is looking to raise up to AUD150m (US$100m) in its primary placement. The proceeds will be used to strengthen its balance sheet.
The deal would be a large one to digest at 24 days of three month ADV and dilution of 6.2%.  
In this note, we'll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.


AUB Group Placement - Came as a Surprise but Strong Track Record Makes up for It

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Autos /In Depth: How smart cars are upending the auto supply chain</li><li>Capsized /: 39 missing after Chinese fishing vessel capsizes in Indian Ocean</li><li>Talk show /: Chinese comedy producer takes $2.1 million hit for military pun</li></ul>

Autos /In Depth: How smart cars are upending the auto supply chainCapsized /: 39 missing after Chinese fishing vessel capsizes in Indian OceanTalk show /: Chinese comedy producer takes $2.1 million hit for military pun

CX Daily: How Smart Cars Are Upending the Auto Supply Chain

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 28th Mar 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>  announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.</li>
<li>Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we highlighted which division could list. In this note, we will look at the Cloud segement.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba Group (9988 HK)  announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
In our previous note, we highlighted which division could list. In this note, we will look at the Cloud segement.


Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 3 - An Early Look at Cloud, Easy US$10bn+

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q23, Physical Store Revenue Decreased for First Time, Downgrade to Hold

Alibaba’s revenue from physical stores decreased year over year for the first time. The operating margin declined despite that Alibaba cut losses...

Ming Lu

Alibaba 4QFY23: Concerns Surrounding Taobao and Tmall, Disappointing IPO-Bound Cloud & Cainiao

Alibaba's IPO-bound Cainiao saw a lower YoY revenue growth rate of 17.6%. The Cloud unit experienced a 2.1% YoY revenue decline, its first recorded...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

AUB Group Placement - Came as a Surprise but Strong Track Record Makes up for It

AUB Group is looking to raise up to AUD150m (US$100m) in its primary placement. In this note, we'll run the deal through our ECM framework and...

Ethan Aw

CX Daily: How Smart Cars Are Upending the Auto Supply Chain

Autos /In Depth: How smart cars are upending the auto supply chain Capsized /: 39 missing after Chinese fishing vessel capsizes in Indian...

Caixin Global

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 3 - An Early Look at Cloud, Easy US$10bn+

On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba Group (9988 HK) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major...

Sumeet Singh

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