Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Wish had more conviction for writing this update. The framework for determining if the bounce is durable or if a trend reversal has occurred is not working or is not clear.</li><li>Stocks that could see tailwinds and drivers for a sustained rally do not have the Volume to confirm the trend change.</li><li>At the same time, stocks with massive headwinds and structural issues have high Volumes.</li></ul>

Wish had more conviction for writing this update. The framework for determining if the bounce is durable or if a trend reversal has occurred is not working or is not clear.Stocks that could see tailwinds and drivers for a sustained rally do not have the Volume to confirm the trend change.At the same time, stocks with massive headwinds and structural issues have high Volumes.

Country Garden, China Resource Land, Alibaba, and HSBC

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In the short term, macro headwind has weighed on consumption willingness and YoY growth in online retail sales of physical goods, and the consistent recovery of growth could still take time, but we do expect a gradual recovery trend driven by gradual recovery in macro and easier comps trending into 2023.</li><li>Amid soft consumption willingness, e-commerce companies are focusing on addressing the demand of core membership user base and enhancing merchant engagement in recent Double 11 sales promotions in order to drive for higher efficiency.</li><li>The strategic move of leveraging established consumer mindshare to control sales promotion intensity and to adopt more strict cost saving plans could be focal points to drive near-term profit growth.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In the short term, macro headwind has weighed on consumption willingness and YoY growth in online retail sales of physical goods, and the consistent recovery of growth could still take time, but we do expect a gradual recovery trend driven by gradual recovery in macro and easier comps trending into 2023.Amid soft consumption willingness, e-commerce companies are focusing on addressing the demand of core membership user base and enhancing merchant engagement in recent Double 11 sales promotions in order to drive for higher efficiency.The strategic move of leveraging established consumer mindshare to control sales promotion intensity and to adopt more strict cost saving plans could be focal points to drive near-term profit growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet Sector – E-commerce: consistent recovery takes time

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Consumption sentiment and offline activities’ recovery pace continued to weigh on internet sector’s 3Q financials performance.</li><li>Looking into 4Q and 2023, business model robustness, operating leverage improvement, and ability to expand into new revenue streams will be the key stock alpha drivers, while the heavily under-owned China Internet sector will remain sensitive to policies and other sentiment related beta drivers.</li><li>We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Consumption sentiment and offline activities’ recovery pace continued to weigh on internet sector’s 3Q financials performance.Looking into 4Q and 2023, business model robustness, operating leverage improvement, and ability to expand into new revenue streams will be the key stock alpha drivers, while the heavily under-owned China Internet sector will remain sensitive to policies and other sentiment related beta drivers.We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 preview: near term bumpy recovery

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>A fresh wave of Covid-19 outbreaks and tightened control measures across China are stoking concerns among merchants that logistics disruptions could undermine sales in the annual “Double 11” shopping promotion.</li><li><p>The event, also known as “Singles’ Day,” is one of the biggest money-earners in the retail calendar.</p></li><li><p>But Covid lockdowns are again squeezing logistics in some parts of the country.</p></li></ul>

A fresh wave of Covid-19 outbreaks and tightened control measures across China are stoking concerns among merchants that logistics disruptions could undermine sales in the annual “Double 11” shopping promotion.The event, also known as “Singles’ Day,” is one of the biggest money-earners in the retail calendar.But Covid lockdowns are again squeezing logistics in some parts of the country.

Covid Lockdowns Stoke Merchant Concerns Ahead of Peak Shopping Season

<div><ul><li>Competition on user time spend intensified in 3Q22. Per MoonFox data, in 3Q22, average number of apps installed per capita was 74 in 3Q22, up from 71 in 2Q22 and 66 in 3Q21, while average user time spend per capita per day on apps was 5.4 hours, flat QoQ and declined 0.1 hour YoY, indicating an intensifying competition on user time spend.</li><li>Leading internet giants are enlarging their shares in user time spend: combined user time spend on apps related to Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba and Baidu accounted for 69.3% of total user time spend in Sep 2022 (Sep 2021: 68.5%; Jun 2022: 68.4%).</li><li>Tencent related apps grew its share in user time spend to 28.3% in Sep 2022 (Sep 2021: 26.7%; June 2022: 27.5%), which in our view could be attributed to the robust ramp-up of Video Accounts, indicating additional monetization opportunities ahead.</li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Competition on user time spend intensified in 3Q22. Per MoonFox data, in 3Q22, average number of apps installed per capita was 74 in 3Q22, up from 71 in 2Q22 and 66 in 3Q21, while average user time spend per capita per day on apps was 5.4 hours, flat QoQ and declined 0.1 hour YoY, indicating an intensifying competition on user time spend.Leading internet giants are enlarging their shares in user time spend: combined user time spend on apps related to Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba and Baidu accounted for 69.3% of total user time spend in Sep 2022 (Sep 2021: 68.5%; Jun 2022: 68.4%).Tencent related apps grew its share in user time spend to 28.3% in Sep 2022 (Sep 2021: 26.7%; June 2022: 27.5%), which in our view could be attributed to the robust ramp-up of Video Accounts, indicating additional monetization opportunities ahead.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 industry data trend recap

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Country Garden, China Resource Land, Alibaba, and HSBC

Wish had more conviction for writing this update. The framework for determining if the bounce is durable or if a trend reversal has occurred is not...

Untying The Gordian Knot

China Internet Sector – E-commerce: consistent recovery takes time

Amid soft consumption willingness, e-commerce companies are focusing on addressing the demand of core membership user base and enhancing merchant...

CMB International

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 preview: near term bumpy recovery

We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation.

CMB International

Covid Lockdowns Stoke Merchant Concerns Ahead of Peak Shopping Season

A fresh wave of Covid-19 outbreaks and tightened control measures across China are stoking concerns among merchants that logistics disruptions...

Caixin Global

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 industry data trend recap

Combined user time spend on apps related to Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba and Baidu accounted for 69.3% of total user time spend in Sep 2022 (Sep...

CMB International

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