China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taobao and Tmall have implemented two major reforms: 1) The launch of the Wanxiangtai Platform Unlimited Edition; 2) Changing the rules for displaying merchant sales volume from monthly to annual.</li>
<li>Although the new Wanxiangtai differs from PDD’s "Fangxintui" and "Quanzhantui" , the idea is to simplify and automate merchant promotion. We anticipate that this change will boost the take rate.</li>
<li>We increased our core e-commerce take rate estimate for BABA in FY24/FY25 to 3.85%/4.0%, respectively, and raised our TP to US$ 127.</li>
</ul>


Taobao and Tmall have implemented two major reforms: 1) The launch of the Wanxiangtai Platform Unlimited Edition; 2) Changing the rules for displaying merchant sales volume from monthly to annual.
Although the new Wanxiangtai differs from PDD’s "Fangxintui" and "Quanzhantui" , the idea is to simplify and automate merchant promotion. We anticipate that this change will boost the take rate.
We increased our core e-commerce take rate estimate for BABA in FY24/FY25 to 3.85%/4.0%, respectively, and raised our TP to US$ 127.


[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$127) TP Change]: The New Wanxiangtai Will Enhance the Take Rate

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> (SFH), China’s largest express delivery company, aims to raise around US$2-3bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH) (SFH), China’s largest express delivery company, aims to raise around US$2-3bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
SFH is the largest integrated express logistics service provider in China and the fourth largest in the world. It has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2017
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


SF Holdings A/H Listing - Early Look - Front Running

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

JD Health International  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It is an indisputable fact that JD Health's revenue growth has slowed down. The core reason is the industry beta brought by mobile Internet demographic dividend/COVID-19 dividend has faded away.</li>
<li>JD Health's performance could be under pressure in 2H23. If revenue growth continues to show a downward trend, whether the current profit margin/profitability can be maintained is a question mark.</li>
<li>JD health is facing four major dilemmas, including both business and policy aspects. Long-term valuation outlook for JD Health is not optimistic. We advise investors to re-evaluate the Company. </li>
</ul>


It is an indisputable fact that JD Health's revenue growth has slowed down. The core reason is the industry beta brought by mobile Internet demographic dividend/COVID-19 dividend has faded away.
JD Health's performance could be under pressure in 2H23. If revenue growth continues to show a downward trend, whether the current profit margin/profitability can be maintained is a question mark.
JD health is facing four major dilemmas, including both business and policy aspects. Long-term valuation outlook for JD Health is not optimistic. We advise investors to re-evaluate the Company. 


JD Health (6618.HK) 23H1 - The Beautiful Story Is Over; It's Time to Face Reality

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep 23 review results for the Hang Seng Tech Index were announced on Friday 18 August after the close.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy Holding (1797 HK)</a> (formerly Koolearn) was an ADD. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> is a DELETE. </li>
<li>AAC is a significant flow event, and worth looking at. There are a few odds and ends too.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 23 review results for the Hang Seng Tech Index were announced on Friday 18 August after the close.

East Buy Holding (1797 HK) (formerly Koolearn) was an ADD. AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) is a DELETE. 
AAC is a significant flow event, and worth looking at. There are a few odds and ends too.


Hang Seng TECH Sep23 Index Review - A Few BIGLY Events and One-Way Flow of 3.4%

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI Review for Sep 2023 was announced on Friday 18 August. There is one ADD <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> and one DELETE <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Neither of these two are a surprise. Neither are hugely impactful. </li>
<li>There is about 2.5% one-way to trade. Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is a sell across all three major indices.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI Review for Sep 2023 was announced on Friday 18 August. There is one ADD Trip.com Group (9961 HK) and one DELETE Country Garden Services (6098 HK). 
Neither of these two are a surprise. Neither are hugely impactful. 
There is about 2.5% one-way to trade. Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is a sell across all three major indices.


HSCEI Sep23 Index Review/​Flows - Trip.Com (9961) Added, CG Svcs (6098) Deleted; ~2.5% One Way

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$127) TP Change]: The New Wanxiangtai Will Enhance the Take Rate

Taobao and Tmall have implemented two major reforms: 1) The launch of the Wanxiangtai Platform Unlimited Edition; 2) Changing the rules for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SF Holdings A/H Listing - Early Look - Front Running

The company has just filed its application prood for an H-share listing. As per media reports, it could look to raise up to US$3bn in its Hong Kong...

Sumeet Singh

JD Health (6618.HK) 23H1 - The Beautiful Story Is Over; It's Time to Face Reality

We had anticipated JD Health's declining growth in previous insights, but 23Q2 performance was indeed ugly. JD Health's facing dilemmas in policies...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng TECH Sep23 Index Review - A Few BIGLY Events and One-Way Flow of 3.4%

HSTECH is often the most interesting of the 3 major Hang Seng index rebals, and that is the case here too, though the one-way flow is "only" 3.4%...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Sep23 Index Review/Flows - Trip.Com (9961) Added, CG Svcs (6098) Deleted; ~2.5% One Way

The Sep 2023 HSCEI rebal is something of a damp squib. Nothing that big. Capping contributes to the BABA sell. And watch for big moves the next few...

Travis Lundy

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[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$127) TP Change]: The New Wanxiangtai Will Enhance the Take Rate

Taobao and Tmall have implemented two major reforms: 1) The launch of the Wanxiangtai Platform Unlimited Edition; 2) Changing the rules for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SF Holdings A/H Listing - Early Look - Front Running

The company has just filed its application prood for an H-share listing. As per media reports, it could look to raise up to US$3bn in its Hong Kong...

Sumeet Singh

JD Health (6618.HK) 23H1 - The Beautiful Story Is Over; It's Time to Face Reality

We had anticipated JD Health's declining growth in previous insights, but 23Q2 performance was indeed ugly. JD Health's facing dilemmas in policies...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng TECH Sep23 Index Review - A Few BIGLY Events and One-Way Flow of 3.4%

HSTECH is often the most interesting of the 3 major Hang Seng index rebals, and that is the case here too, though the one-way flow is "only" 3.4%...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Sep23 Index Review/​Flows - Trip.Com (9961) Added, CG Svcs (6098) Deleted; ~2.5% One Way

The Sep 2023 HSCEI rebal is something of a damp squib. Nothing that big. Capping contributes to the BABA sell. And watch for big moves the next few...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Sep23 Index Review/Flows - Trip.Com (9961) Added, CG Svcs (6098) Deleted; ~2.5% One Way