Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK: Taobao/Tmall plans to direct traffic to stores and logistics providers with better service (+/+/-/-/-)</li>
<li>1219 HK/PDD/SHEIN/BABA: Temu negotiating with J&amp;T for cooperation in overseas last-mile services (+)</li>
<li>1024 HK: Kuaishou's Playlet Business Expanding Rapidly, DAU Reaches 270 Million(+)</li>
</ul>


BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK: Taobao/Tmall plans to direct traffic to stores and logistics providers with better service (+/+/-/-/-)
1219 HK/PDD/SHEIN/BABA: Temu negotiating with J&amp;T for cooperation in overseas last-mile services (+)
1024 HK: Kuaishou's Playlet Business Expanding Rapidly, DAU Reaches 270 Million(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK/1219 HK/1024 HK

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is expected to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the March review.</li>
<li>Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.32% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$628m.</li>
<li>Short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is near its lows while there has been some recent short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is expected to replace GDS Holdings (9698 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the March review.
Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.32% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$628m.
Short interest on Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is near its lows while there has been some recent short covering in GDS Holdings (9698 HK). 


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with Japan &amp; Korea, after having looked at Hong Kong and India earlier.</li>
<li>This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with Japan &amp; Korea, after having looked at Hong Kong and India earlier.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.


Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - Japan & Korea

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect PDD to report the highest growth in topline for 4Q23 over last three years. In particular, we believe its bottom line will beat by wide margin.</li>
<li>But easy days are gone for PDD’s domestic e-commerce business and high base will kick in from 1Q24, resulting in tough comps, notable deceleration and potentially short-term share price volatility.</li>
<li>We see 20% upside to current PDD valuation by assigning 20xPE to our US$12 billion adjusted net profit estimate for 2024.</li>
</ul>


We expect PDD to report the highest growth in topline for 4Q23 over last three years. In particular, we believe its bottom line will beat by wide margin.
But easy days are gone for PDD’s domestic e-commerce business and high base will kick in from 1Q24, resulting in tough comps, notable deceleration and potentially short-term share price volatility.
We see 20% upside to current PDD valuation by assigning 20xPE to our US$12 billion adjusted net profit estimate for 2024.


Pinduoduo (PDD US): Another Strong Beat Around the Corner

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> plans to raise more than US$1bn in its US IPO. Proceeds will be used to pay down loans to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> led consortium.</li>
<li>Amer Sports is a sports and outdoor brands company making clothing and other sporting equipment for use in snow sports, running, climbing, baseball, american football, tennis and other sports.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Amer Sports (AS US) plans to raise more than US$1bn in its US IPO. Proceeds will be used to pay down loans to Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) led consortium.
Amer Sports is a sports and outdoor brands company making clothing and other sporting equipment for use in snow sports, running, climbing, baseball, american football, tennis and other sports.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Amer Sports Pre-IPO - The Negatives - COVID Rebound, Weak Margins

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK/1219 HK/1024 HK

Tmall aims to improve service for stores and logistics providers;Temu negotiates with J&T for overseas last-mile services;Kuaishou's Playlet...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)

In just over a month, Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) has outperformed GDS (9698 HK) by 39% (+21% vs -18%). Trim positions here and wait for a better...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - Japan & Korea

In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with Japan & Korea, after having looked at Hong Kong and India...

Sumeet Singh

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Another Strong Beat Around the Corner

For 4Q23, we expect PDD to report highest revenue growth rate in 3 years and strong beat in bottom line. Yet muted earnings in 1Q24 will likely...

Eric Chen

Amer Sports Pre-IPO - The Negatives - COVID Rebound, Weak Margins

Amer Sports (AS US) plans to raise US$1bn in its US IPO. Proceeds will be used to pay down loans to Anta (2020 HK) led consortium. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

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